UFC Best Bets
Favorites roared back to 65% on the year after an 11-2 result in last week’s UFC LV89.
My releases of Justin Tafa +150 and Rose Namajunas in the second leg of a two-fighter parlay split resulted in a 1-1 + .57 profit for the week. That makes digital profitability in 2024 6-5 +3.52 units, which displays an average win of +143.
Realizing profitability when committed to remaining on the underdog side of UFC results can be challenging, which is why I remain ultra-selective with my releases on this platform. It takes little to “pick them all” and the result of that erodes win percentages, gross profit and return on investment, which are my sole concerns for this column.
We march into UFC Fight Night Atlantic City, where fighters compete in the larger 30-foot octagon.
Erin Blanchfield -185 vs. Manon Fiorot +155
Women’s flyweight (125 pounds) main event
The third-ranked Fiorot defeated debuting flyweight and former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas in her last bout in September.
In that three-round affair, Fiorot displayed extreme durability coupled with aggressive power striking and kicking to earn a razor-close nod.
The Swede sports a +2.7 significant strikes-landed-per-round average and a 91% takedown defense. Her durability, toughness and UFC experience make her a justified top-five fighter in the division.
The second-ranked Blanchfield is 10 years younger than Fiorot, which provides a 67% advantage historically.
Besides her youth, Blanchfield is decorated with a black belt in BJJ and she has risen through the division by dominating each challenge she has faced.
Blanchfield steps up in class for this fight, but her well-rounded arsenal, youth and home-state advantage against a European who is traveling for the event give the 24-year-old Jersey product the edge.
This fight opened a dead pick-’em, but by Tuesday of fight week, Blanchfield’s been steamed to the current -185 based on the advantages spelled out above.
Though Fiorot has faced a more accomplished level of UFC opponent, the fact remains that this is her first headline event and it’s a five-round fight. In her last bout, Fiorot slowed substantially in the third round against Namajunas, who was making her debut in the division.
Blanchfield is a more versed MMA athlete who already has experienced the distractions and pressure of headlining a UFC card.
I believe it’s already too late to jump on the Blanchfield train, even though I handicap her to be fairly priced. Instead, the advantages lie in the total for this bout, which opened 4.5 pick-’em and now stand at 4.5 Over -135.
This fight will be keenly contested. With her youth, pedigree and home-crowd advantage, I expect Blanchfield to prevail, though I believe it will take her all five rounds to do so.
UFC Best Bet: 4.5 Rds Over -135
Vicente Luque -120 vs. Joaquin Buckley +100
Welterweight (170 pounds) co-main event
Buckley is an unranked mixed martial artist who has a modest wrestling background but is a powerful puncher. He is physically compact and extremely explosive, relying on bludgeoning hooks, crosses and elbows to render opponents unconscious.
Buckley, 17-6 as a pro and 7-4 in the UFC, lands slightly more significant strikes per round than he absorbs, sports average takedown defense, which he should not have to employ in this predicted stand-up war, and he averages 1.51 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, which he will not undertake unless he gets stung.
He presses forward unrelentingly and wastes little time attempting to engage opponents as he seeks a good old-fashioned “turn your lights out” throwdown.
The 11th-ranked Luque is another relentless warrior raised in the New Jersey area, so he will have family in attendance and will be backed by the crowd.
Decorated with black belts in Luta Livre Esportiva and BJJ, Luque is the more well-rounded mixed martial artist of these two. He hurls a high rate of power punches in all his battles while being more than willing to receive a shot to the nose to deliver one.
Fans will be treated to a couple of alpha males looking to immediately ring the other up to earn an impressive — and quick — victory.
I expect there will be little feeling out in this fight by Buckley, who will want to stand firm and hurl.
Luque must employ a diverse attack to sap the slugger from St. Louis of his explosiveness. Patience will be his ally as his best chance will be for his opponent to slow down. The question is, can he be patient?
Neither of these men is known for patience, choosing instead to engage in war and finish the opponent.
Luque must manage this fight past the first five minutes of competition. Once into the second round, provided this fight arrives there, he may be the faster more damaging power puncher.
Luque opened as a -160 favorite, and early money on Buckley has compressed the price to the current -120.
Total in this fight is lined 2.5 Rds Under -165 after opening Under -135.
Few, including myself, expect this bout to go to a decision.
Lupita Godinez -200 vs. Virna Jandiroba +170
Women’s strawweight (115 pounds)
Godinez, 10th-ranked in the division, displays all the pride, durability and determination of the Mexican fighter. Loopy’s MMA game has drastically improved since she began training with flyweight champion Alexa Grasso at Lobo Gym in Guadalajara, Mexico.
A purple belt in BJJ, the undersized Godinez displays complete willingness to engage in the stand-up wars Mexican boxers are renowned for. She is also apt at the takedown and has been effective stopping takedown advances from opponents, though that ability will surely be tested here.
Jandiroba, ranked seventh, is decorated with a Black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a green/white prajied in Muay Thai. She is taller and larger than Godinez and has competed against a more accomplished level of competition.
This Mexico vs. Brazil battle features two athletes fighting to break into the elite of the division. Lined 2.5 rounds with the over -270, this fight has all the makings of being a razor-close decision.
At the end of the day, Jandiroba’s size, experience and ground ability all signify that she has the more complete skill set. Though she’s the underdog, I handicap Jandiroba to be the sleeper of this fight card.
UFC Best Bet: Jandiroba +170
Jandiroba via decision price is not yet available, but it will be a strong consideration.
My ‘Bout Business Podcast drops midday Friday and is accessible at GambLou.com
