UFC Best Bets
After a week off, the UFC offers fight enthusiasts Saturday night fight cards for the next eleven weeks taking us into the middle of April. Two weeks ago, South African Dricus Du Plessis won the middleweight title by winning a close split decision over former champion Sean Strickland. This may set the UFC up with an opportunity to break into Africa with a championship headliner between the aforementioned Du Plessis and former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya, a Nigerian now residing in New Zealand. On that UFC 297 slate, Raquel Pennington +135 painted a one-sided decision on Brazilian Mayra Bueno Silva putting us profitably on the board heading into this UFC Las Vegas 85 production. Let’s take a look at my UFC best bets.
Nassourdine Imavov -140 vs. Roman Dolidze +120
Middleweight (185 pounds) main event
This is the form of main event that super excites me, as the 11th-ranked Imavov of Dagestan descent takes his fight arsenal (boxing based with capable grappling mixed in) against Ukrainian athlete Roman Dolidze, who is a forward pressing, world-class grappler with solid BJJ, sambo and striking compliments.
The eighth-ranked Dolidze is the more well-rounded, versed mixed martial artist in this bout. He takes this tussle on the heels of a razor-close decision loss to Marvin Vettori, which is nothing to be ashamed of as Vettori proven and is the fifth-ranked athlete in the division.
Dolidze, 12-2 professionally, is unrelentingly aggressive and is a finisher, as he has submitted or KO’d ten of his 12 professional victims.
For his part, Imavov is no stranger to finishing bouts, as he’s ended nine of 12 fights in his professional career. That said, his last victory was in 2022 against Joaquin Buckley, so he may be feeling a little pressure to earn a victory.
In this matchup, Imavov, seven years the younger combatant, will have a slight height advantage but no reach advantage, making this bout even more intriguing.
Physically indistinguishable, these two combatants bring relatively similar fight arsenals into a fight where Imavov opened -155 and has ebbed up to the current -165 price.
Once the bell chimes to start this fight, look for Dolidze to pressure Imavov and attempt to back him up with the design of negating his precision striking and forcing him to constantly defend while back peddling.
A potential chink in the armor of Imavov has been his cardio late in bouts, although this is his second five-round main event fight.
Dolidze, despite a seven-year age advantage, will attempt to suck the fight out of Imavov using steady forward pressure. It may be in Imavov’s plan to regulate his energy early in order to potentially hold advantage late in this bout, as Dolidze is somewhat of a “wild man from the Pampas” when he fights.
Imavov must be able to control space/distance, which is foundational to his success. This could be challenging for him because the cage in the UFC APEX is only 25 feet as opposed to the larger 30-foot cages used outside the APEX. A potential advantage for Dolidze.
Imavov’s game revolves around his ability to land precision strikes in volume while providing opponents with deft movement and only shadows to aim at. Evasive movement and distance control are key to his success.
Dolidze is competing in his first five-round main event. This, coupled with his age and his aggressive “all out” nature, forces me to credit Imavov slightly, given his youth and experience in main event forays.
I am looking forward to this fight as much as any in this first quarter of 2024 because this matchmaking is superb. The victor will be regarded as elite in the division, while the loser will have to regroup and gain back momentum.
Can Dolidze successfully back Imavov up and, despite his advanced thirty-five years of age and his forceful nature, overcome Imavov’s five-round experience, fluidity of movement, and precision volume striking?
This fight looks to be a decision in the making.
Total in this Fight: 2.5 Over -165
Strong lean over
Natalia Silva -340 vs. Viviane Araujo +275
Women’s flyweight (125 pounds)
The battle of Brazil!
Seventh-ranked Araujo is coming off her best performance to date with a win over Jennifer Maia, who is ranked just outside the division’s top fifteen.
Araujo is tough, durable, determined, extremely powerful and mean as a junkyard dog. She enters this fight, having faced a murderer’s row of ranked flyweight women.
Araujo’s game is to walk down opponents and engage in a toe-to-toe battle, hurling looping crosses, hooks, elbows and destructive knees. As aggressive as Araujo is, that’s also how limited she can be when it comes to defensive strike evasion and footwork/ability to move with fluidity.
Silva, ranked ninth in the division and ten years the younger athlete in this bout, is a sizable favorite in this bout. She’s won her last ten fights and stands 4-0 in the UFC with wins over capable competition, but she has not been in with the ilk of athlete her opponent has.
In many ways, this is a barometer bout for Silva to determine if her fluidity of movement, her diversity of fight arsenal, and her momentum can carry her past this most worthy women’s flyweight fighter.
Once this bout begins, Araujo will take aggressive measures to bring this fight immediately to Silva, while it will be Silva’s plan to utilize her legwork, precision striking, and especially her effective leg-kicking attack to sap the vigor from the 37-year-old Araujo in the early rounds then dominate her in the third.
Silva opened -265 in this bout and has blossomed to -330. This is a fight where Silva’s skill, deft movement, and precision striking should overcome the aggression and power of fellow Brazilian Araujo.
UFC Best Bet: Silva -340 parlayed to Roman Dolidze +140 pays +210
I’ll invest .50 unit to win 1.05 unit
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -315
Digital 2024 results: 1-0 +1.35u
My ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday at 1 p.m. PT. Access it at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
