Saturday’s UFC LV68 production was originally scheduled to be held in South Korea. This explains the highly international set of matchups and the unusually late start time as the UFC decided to accommodate the eastern hemisphere viewers by keeping the main card slotted for prime time in South Korea.
This card features only eight actionable bouts with four others highlighting debuting talent from across the world. There is little to no data with which to study these debuting athletes so those four contests will be regarded as ‘due diligence bouts’ where I log information on each fighter for future consideration.
Two weeks ago, Brandon Moreno +115 put an exclamation on his quadrilogy bout with Deiveson Figueiredo by finishing him after the third round. We begin 2023 with a couple of wins and will attempt to add to the profit with this week’s best bet.
Derrick Lewis 190 vs. Serghei Spivac -220
Heavyweight (265 lbs) main event
Derrick ‘The Black Beast’ Lewis is a rotund, one-dimensional fighter who possesses profuse explosive power but for very limited time. At 37 years old, that time is dwindling in each bout as Lewis has been finished inside the distance in three of his last four bouts.
While there’s little shame in losing to the likes of Pavlovich, Tuivasa and Gane, the fact is that ‘The Beast’ is not a legitimately trained mixed martial artist. He’s a brute force bully who is now slowing and whose ability to take a flush fist to the face is waning. Maybe most importantly, Lewis is struggling mentally.
He’s struggling to recapture the swag he had when he was able to collapse opponents with raw power and blunt force striking. He once exhibited exceptional athleticism coupled with devastating punching power, but now he’s morphed into a slow, inward-plodding aggressor who has little explosiveness after four minutes of heavy exertion.
Father Time has caught up with the beefy brawler, and the UFC keeps setting him in front of legitimately trained mixed martial artists who are ranked, focused and looking to capture Lewis’ seventh-ranked heavyweight ranking.
Nicknamed ‘The Polar Bear,’ Spivac is the twelfth-ranked heavyweight and possesses an understated demeanor and dominant grappling. He employs aggressive, forward pressure striking allowing him to clinch and then transition to an all-out grappling attack. While Spivac is not overly athletic, he is strong and determined and has the cardio to fight for a full fifteen minutes. Even though this is scheduled for five rounds, few believe this affair even approaches those championship rounds.
In 15 wins, Spivac has 6 KOs/TKOs and 7 Submissions, proving his ability to compete anywhere a fight takes place. He’s also nine years younger than Lewis.
Lewis’ chances come down to his ability to catch Spivac early in this fight with a haymaker while the Moldavan athlete will work to take Lewis past the first round to gas the portly puncher, then transition this fight onto the mat where he can smear beast all over the canvas.
I believe this will be a coming-out party for Spivac while Lewis will be regulated to journeyman status after this fight—a stepping stone to be used for up-and-coming heavyweights.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Over -105.
Note: this total opened 1.5 Over -190 so the marketplace has attacked the under 1.5 rounds!
Da Un Jung -235 vs. Devin Clark 200
Light Heavyweight (205 lbs) co-main event
Again, these bouts were matched for the viewership in the eastern hemisphere, so one must realize that favorable matchups often take place benefitting the local athletes.
This tactic spurs the UFC’s growth in an area as well as firing up the local crowd. Neither will occur Saturday with the location change of this bout, but make little mistake that Clark was carefully selected as Jung’s opponent.
Clark is a grizzled veteran with a 7-7 record in the UFC. He’s tough, durable and well-rounded but offers little finishing ability, as six of his seven UFC victories have been via decision.
Jung enters this bout on the bounce after losing his undefeated status against Dustin Jacoby in his last outing. I believe this is a tangible factor in the fight because Jung has size, reach and youth advantages in this bout, as well as an edge in quickness, durability and power.
Jung will look to use his length to keep the shorter Clark at distance and in the range of his straight power punches and teep kicks.
Clark, who has always had his father in the corner for his bouts is going this one without Pop, as he’s changed training to Colorado’s Elevation fight team.
While these changes may seem nominal, they indicate to me a desperation in Clark which may manifest itself in a fine performance. But in my judgment, Jung’s size, youth, speed and power and the fact he’s entering this bout on the bounce all indicate to me that he’s ready to fire fresh on an overmatched Devin Clark.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Under -160
Best Bet Parlay: Spivak -225 to Jung -235 1.06
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