No article last week from me here at VSiN. Vacation called and I answered. I’m returning from Mexico this week, though for very different reasons than Daniel Rodriguez. More on that when we get to the main event.
Yet the model kept running and last week went a clean 4–0. The 2026 record now sits at 88–50–6 — 63.77% on the year. (Model predictions always available at FightingWithNumbers.com)
This week the UFC heads to Belgrade for another data thin card. Dave Ross and I broke it all down on this week’s First Strike with guest Shane Turston — give it a listen/watch everywhere you get your podcasts and on it’s own YouTube channel!
Let’s dig in.
Mateusz Rebecki vs Kyle Prepolec
Two fighters on losing streaks, one fight, and a result the model sees as close to a foregone conclusion, with one important caveat on how we play it.
Mateusz Rebecki was last seen in May, tapping out to Grant Dawson’s submission. He’s now dropped three in a row and sits at 1–4 in his last five. It’s been a rough stretch, but the underlying numbers tell a more nuanced story than the record suggests. Rebecki has remained competitive in those losses, which matters more than the result column alone.
Across from him is Kyle Prepolec, who has the kind of UFC résumé that makes you wonder how the booking came together. He made his UFC debut back in 2019, lost twice, left the organization, went 4–1 elsewhere, returned in 2025, and has lost both fights since coming back. He has not won a UFC fight. His last appearance was a TKO loss to Drew Dober in October.
Kyle holds a four-inch reach advantage at 70 inches. That’s about where the good news ends for him.
The xR% gap is one of the more dramatic on the card this year. Rebecki sits at a respectable 64%. Even through his three-fight skid, he’s finding ways to score in his bouts. Prepolec checks in at 22%. Going 0–4 in the UFC will do that to a number, and that mark reflects a fighter who is losing rounds at an alarming rate against UFC-level competition.
The striking numbers are equally lopsided. Rebecki lands 4.94 significant strikes per minute with a +0.47 differential, absorbing 4.47 per minute. That’s high volume both ways, but he’s winning the exchange. He’s also scored five knockdowns in the UFC, so the power is real. Prepolec lands 3.25 per minute with a –2.44 differential, absorbing 5.69 significant strikes per minute. He has never scored a knockdown in the UFC. The output gap and the absorption rate paint a picture of a fighter who simply hasn’t been able to impose his will at this level.
The ground game adds another dimension to Rebecki’s arsenal. He holds a 67% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges, has scored 19 takedowns at only 49% accuracy, but averages 3.18 attempts per five minutes. Prepolec counters with an 8% control rate, zero takedowns, zero attempts, and 45% takedown defense. There is no ground threat coming from the Prepolec corner.
The model runs it through and delivers an 87% win probability for Rebecki, a strong Tier 1 Favorite. His moneyline sits at –550, which is completely off the table straight up.
Here’s where the play gets interesting. The model is confident Rebecki wins. The question is how and when. His profile suggests a grinding, grapple-heavy performance that works through rounds rather than ending the fight early. Prepolec’s durability in the UFC, absorbing significant damage across four fights without being knocked down, adds to that picture. The Over 1.5 rounds at -165 reflects the most likely path here, and it’s the number we’ve landed on.
Rebecki can also make for a natural parlay piece given the model’s confidence level in him winning the fight. The Over 1.5 rounds is the cleaner standalone play for me.
Uros Medic vs Daniel Rodriguez
Let’s address the elephant in the room before we get into a single number.
Daniel Rodriguez was released from a Mexican prison back in April. He had crossed the border into Tijuana for a weekend getaway and was caught with marijuana in the car. Not a major charge in the grand scheme of things, but eight months in a Mexican prison is eight months in a Mexican prison. He was released in April, which means he’s had roughly three months to get back into fight shape before stepping into the cage against one of the most dangerous knockout artists in the welterweight division.
I just got back from Mexico myself. Anniversary trip to Cabo with the wife. Highly recommend. I successfully returned without incident. The border crossing went smoothly.
Rodriguez, to his credit, had put together a legitimate three-fight win streak before the arrest. Most recently a decision over Kevin Holland a year ago. At 39 years old with eight months of forced inactivity under truly unusual circumstances, the questions around his conditioning and sharpness are impossible to ignore.
Uros Medic enters on a three-fight TKO winning streak, most recently stopping Geoff Neal in February. He has seven UFC victories and every single one has come by knockout. He is a finisher in the purest sense of the word.
The reach advantage goes to Rodriguez, three inches at 74 inches, and the xR% numbers are nearly identical. Medic sits at 67%, Rodriguez at 66%. On paper, these two are remarkably even across the round-winning metrics.
The striking tells a more interesting story. Medic lands 5.11 significant strikes per minute with a +1.56 differential, absorbing just 3.55 per minute. That’s clean, efficient, and dangerous. Rodriguez lands a high 7.20 significant strikes per minute, but with only a +1.89 differential, meaning he’s absorbing 5.31 significant strikes per minute in the process. He outputs volume and accepts punishment in return. Against most opponents that’s a trade-off he can manage. Against Medic, a man who has finished all seven of his UFC opponents, walking into that much counter fire is a genuine problem. Both men have scored seven and eight knockdowns respectively, and both have been dropped three times.
The ground game is essentially nonexistent. 11% control rate for Medic, 29% for Rodriguez, and a combined three takedowns between them. This fight lives and dies on the feet, which is exactly where Medic wants it.
Running it through the model, the output lands on Medic at 61% win probability, but that confidence level produces a Tier 5 trap favorite label, which normally means stay away.
Here’s where we separate the math from the fight.
The model cannot account for eight months in a Mexican prison. It cannot account for whatever Rodriguez’s conditioning looks like after that stretch, or how sharp his timing is three months removed from his release at 39 years old. Those are real variables that live outside the dataset, and they matter in a fight against someone as dangerous as Medic.
The moneyline at –365 is completely unplayable. Even the knockout prop only shortens the price to –250, which still isn’t a number we want to lay. Where I find that value lives is in the Fight to Start Round 2 prop at -105. A bet on this fight making it past the first frame. Given Medic’s finishing ability and Rodriguez’s volume-heavy style that absorbs damage, there’s a real chance this ends before the second round begins. But there’s also enough durability on Rodriguez’s side historically that the prop carries real value at whatever price it’s sitting at.
Check out FightingWithNumbers.com for the full model tale of the tapes, grades, and reports on the fights this weekend.
Here’s this week’s episode of First Strike:
Good luck Saturday. Enjoy the violence.
