MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, August 1.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
4:10 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Marlins starting pitcher Tyler Phillips has struggled with command, posting 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings with 4.1 walks per nine innings. While his ERA is 3.52, his fielding independent is 4.61 and that ERA balloons to 6.23 away from home. He faces a Mets lineup that is 27th in scoring with 4.1 runs per game and is now without Juan Soto, who is on the injured list. Mets starting pitcher Zac Thornton has been solid in his small sample size at the MLB level, posting a 2.43 ERA with 0.6 home runs and 2.1 walks per nine innings in five starts.
Pick: Mets Moneyline -126 and Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Mets -142 and Total 8.9
7:10 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Rangers starting pitcher Jacob deGrom has had issues allowing home runs this season, registering a 3.67 ERA with 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed. He is also getting 10.8 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings. Astros starting pitcher Ronel Blanco has allowed four home runs and nine total runs in 10 innings across two starts since coming off the injured list. Blanco faces a Rangers lineup that is 23rd in scoring with 4.2 runs per game. Since June 2, the Astros rank third in bullpen ERA at 2.98.
Pick: Rangers vs. Astros Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.7
7:15 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs
Yankees starting Max Fried is making his third start since coming off the injured list. While he is only getting 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings, he’s been a master at inducing soft contact with only one home run allowed in 69 23 innings. He also has a 2.57 fielding independent to go with a 3.23 ERA. Cubs starting pitcher David Peterson has a 5.80 ERA with 3.8 walks per nine innings. Peterson is supported by a bullpen that ranks 19th in ERA since June 1 at 4.53. The Yankees bullpen is number one in that span with a 2.59 ERA.
Picks: Yankees Moneyline -120 and Over 6.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -140 and Total 6.9
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians
The Diamondbacks are giving pitcher Kohl Drake his third career start after allowing five runs and two home runs across nine innings in his first two starts. At the AAA level, he had a 6.92 ERA this season. Guardians starting pitcher Parker Messick has a 2.59 ERA with 0.8 home runs and 2.6 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks seventh in ERA at 3.72. The offense in their past 47 games entering the series was averaging a league-low 3.6 runs per game
Picks: Guardians -154 and Under 8,5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -172 and Total 7.9
8:10 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies
The Royals rank last in the league in scoring away from home with fewer than 3.7 runs per game entering the series. On the mound, they look to Luinder Avila to hold down the fort. Avila owns a 4.95 ERA with 5.2 walks per nine innings. Rockies starting pitcher Ryan Feltner is giving up 1.9 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings with a 5.73 ERA. Both bullpens have been rough. The Royals are 29th in bullpen ERA at 5.24, while the Rockies are 27th at 5.01. The Rockies entered the series fifth in scoring at home with over five runs per game.
Picks: Rockies Moneyline -114 and Under 12 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rockies -137 and Total 11.4
9:38 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Brewers starting pitcher Robert Gasser has had struggles this season with a 4.71 ERA with 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed. He benefits from the Angels ranking last in scoring at home among American League teams with 3.7 runs per game. Angels starting pitcher Jose Soriano has a 3.29 ERA overall this season, but is issuing 4.2 walks per nine innings. He has been significantly worse at home than away from home, posting a career 4.55 ERA at home compared to a lifetime 3.08 ERA away from home. Soriano faces a Brewers lineup that is fifth in the league in scoring with 5.1 runs per game.
Picks: Brewers Moneyline -114 and Under 9 Runs
