This week the UFC heads across the pond for UFC London, headlined by one of the more compelling matchups the featherweight division has produced in awhile. Two undefeated fighters, a record-setting combined win total, and a card underneath the main event that has a few interesting spots if you know where to look.
Last week, the model went 5–2, pushing the 2026 record to 31–12 overall. Another strong week, and the approach stays the same, we let the numbers lead, stay disciplined when the market gets ahead of itself, and find the spots where the edge is real.
Dave Ross and I broke down the card on this week’s First Strike with special guest, Jordan Sherwood. Give it a listen/watch before you finalize your betting card.
Let’s dig in.
Roman Dolidze vs Christian Leroy Duncan
Christian Leroy Duncan is good. The numbers make that pretty clear. The problem this week is that the sportsbooks already know it.
Roman Dolidze comes in off a submission loss to Anthony Hernandez last August, snapping what had been a three-fight win streak. He now sits at 3–3 since 2023, and at 37 years old, the window isn’t getting any wider. Across from him is Duncan, seven years younger at 30, riding a three-fight win streak that includes back-to-back TKO victories. Most recently over Marco Tulio in November. Duncan has gone an impressive 6–2 since 2023, and the momentum is clearly in his corner.
The reach advantage goes to Duncan as well, holding three extra inches at 79 inches.
The round-winning metrics reflect the trajectory of both fighters. Duncan sits at a strong 65% xR% while Dolidze checks in at 55% — not a disaster, but not a number that inspires a lot of confidence against a fighter moving in the opposite direction.
Both men can be finishers. Five knockout victories apiece, and neither has been knocked out inside the UFC. The only stoppage on Dolidze’s record is that recent submission loss to Hernandez.
Stylistically, Dolidze spends 66% of his time at distance, landing 3.41 significant strikes per minute but posting a –0.31 differential. He’s scored four knockdowns in the UFC, so the power is real, but he’s getting touched more than he’s landing overall. Duncan operates differently — only 52% of his time at distance, suggesting he’s willing to get into the pocket and make things uncomfortable. His output reflects that, landing 4.60 significant strikes per minute with an outstanding +1.63 differential while absorbing less than three significant strikes per minute. That’s a genuinely clean profile.
The grappling picture flips things slightly. It’s actually Dolidze who holds the stronger clinch and ground control rate at 70%, compared to 50% for Duncan. Dolidze has scored 11 takedowns at 39% accuracy. Not a dominant path to victory, but a wrinkle. Duncan defends takedowns at 69%, which is respectable but not a wall.
On paper, this fight probably plays out on the feet, and on the feet, Duncan’s numbers are significantly better.
The model lands firmly on Duncan, giving him a 74.73% win probability. The issue is the market has already priced him at –450, which takes the moneyline completely off the table. There’s simply no value there.
This is a thin card from a data perspective, so a parlay is also not an option here. Duncan by decision at +150 reflects the most likely path given what the data shows. Roman Dolidze has not been knocked out in his entire MMA career, has only been knocked down once, and the knockout prop sits at +130, a number that doesn’t quite account for that durability. The decision prop at +150 is the more honest reflection of how this fight is likely to end. Or the Over at 2.5 at -130 is a safer way to play considering both mens’ durability.
Michael Page vs Sam Patterson
This one is messy in the best possible way.
Michael “Venom” Page entered the UFC in 2024 and has gone 3–1 in that time, riding a two-fight win streak after a decision victory over Jared Cannonier last August. He spent 2024 at welterweight, bounced up to middleweight for a stretch in 2025, and now returns to his natural home at 170. At 38 years old, the question of where MVP fits in the UFC’s long-term plans is fair to ask. And I think he’s been asking the same thing.
Across from him is Sam Patterson, nine years younger at 29, and 4–1 through five UFC fights. The notable thing about Patterson is how he wins (and loses), all four of those victories came in the first round, and he’s only seen two decisions in his entire MMA career. He enters this one on a four-fight win streak.
Now, before we get into the numbers, there’s something important to flag.
Patterson brings just under 15 minutes of actual UFC cage time into this fight. That’s right at the edge of what the model needs to produce a reliable output, and we’re running it with that caveat clearly on the table. The data is thin. Treat the result accordingly.
With that said, here’s what the numbers show.
MVP, for all the reputation his striking carries, lands just 2.23 significant strikes per minute. One of the lower output numbers you’ll find on any active UFC roster. What saves that profile is his elusiveness. He absorbs only 1.77 significant strikes per minute, producing a +0.47 differential. He’s genuinely difficult to hit, and that frustrates opponents who want to find a rhythm. His xR% sits at 41% though, which is a number that reflects the struggles he’s had in the UFC despite the win-loss record.
Patterson brings more volume at 4.79 significant strikes per minute, though his +0.08 differential is a concern. Meaning he’s going to take some shots in those exchanges. His xR% is a strong 80%, though that number needs to be wrapped in context. The competition level Patterson has faced doesn’t compare to the welterweights and middleweights MVP has navigated in his, albeit short, UFC run.
The slight grappling edge goes to Patterson. He holds a 79% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges. MVP has zero takedowns and Patterson has only 2. If Patterson can make this a messy, physical fight, that’s probably his best path.
Running it through the model — with the limited data caveat firmly in place — the output actually favors the underdog. Sam Patterson receives a 64.38% win probability, while his current odds of +160 imply only about 38%. That’s a meaningful gap, even accounting for the data uncertainty.
But given that data uncertainty, I don’t suggest a full unit play. The sample is too small for that kind of confidence. But the number is interesting enough, and the price is attractive enough, that Sam Patterson at +160 earns a spot on the betting slip this week. Sometimes you take a calculated shot when the edge is there and the price is right.
Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy
When was the last time the UFC put together a fight like this on a Fight Night?
Movsar Evloev enters at 19–0, returning from a year-long layoff after cruising to a decision over Aljamain Sterling in December of 2024. Lerone Murphy comes in at 17–0–1, riding momentum off a spectacular spinning-back elbow TKO victory over Aaron Pico last August. Between them, this fight sets a new UFC record for most combined wins without a loss in a single matchup at 36–0–1. That number is worth sitting with for a second.
Both men debuted in 2019 and have each earned nine victories inside the octagon. One would assume that the winner almost certainly gets Alexander Volkanovski next. Hopefully the UFC agrees.
Now let’s talk about what the model says.
Lerone Murphy is the cleaner striker of the two. He spends 61% of his fight time at distance, landing 4.48 significant strikes per minute with a remarkable +1.97 differential. That’s elite-level clean striking. He’s scored three knockdowns in the UFC and has shown genuine finishing ability, mixing in three TKO victories alongside his decision wins. He’s been knocked down twice himself, but he’s not walking into a fight against a power striker.
Evloev is a different kind of fighter. He mixes things up more. 52% at distance and lands 3.99 significant strikes per minute with a solid +1.33 differential. He has never scored a knockdown in the UFC, and he’s never been knocked down either. His nine UFC victories have all come by decision. Every single one.
The story of this fight lives on the ground, and that’s where Evloev built his career.
He holds an 81% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges, has scored 42 takedowns across his UFC fights, and averages 6.24 takedown attempts per five minutes. That is relentless, aggressive grappling pressure. Murphy defends takedowns at only 51%, and the honest question is whether he’s ever seen this kind of volume and persistence from a grappler at this level.
The model runs the numbers and lands on Evloev, but this is where we need to be careful.
Evloev receives a 62.96% win probability. The sportsbooks have him priced at –235, implying roughly 70%. The model thinks the market has overshot on Movsar Evloev, and that gap is exactly why we’re not touching the moneyline.
This is a stay-away on the main line. The model believes in Evloev, but not at that price, and not with the level of confidence the number produces. Murphy is too good, and the striking ability he brings gives him a real path to victory that the –235 doesn’t fully respect.
If there’s an angle worth considering for the right bettor, Evloev by decision at –130 reflects how this fight most likely ends if he wins. Grinding Murphy down over 25 minutes, controlling position, and doing what he’s always done. But even that comes with the caveat that this fight carries genuine uncertainty at the top of the card, and the model isn’t screaming at us to act.
Sometimes the smartest play is knowing when to just sit back and watch.
The model sits at 31-12 and this event is only producing 4 total fights with enough data to run the model.
These are the events we protect the bankroll from too much risk. Play what seems reasonable and stay away from over exposure. I’m fine if the model predicts an 0-4 night, but we don’t want our bankroll being hurt by that as well.
That’s the point of the numbers.
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Good luck Saturday. Enjoy the violence.
Model Prediction | Win Prob.%
- Movsar Evloev | 62.96%
- Sam Patterson | 64.38%
- Christian Leroy Duncan | 74.73%
- Luana Carolina | 59.02%
