The 2026 model record now sits at 98–55–6 (64.05%) on the year.
Dave Ross and I broke down the event on this week’s First Strike. Give it a listen, watch it on YouTube. Subscribe today to never miss an episode!
Let’s dig in.
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev
Full transparency upfront…this is not a pretty fight. The heavyweight division could use a spark, and this matchup probably isn’t going to provide one. But there’s an angle worth playing.
Kennedy Nzechukwu is making his return after a rough stretch. No wins since December of 2024, a submission loss to Valter Walker in July, and a draw against Marcus Buchecha in 2025. This is his first fight of 2026 and he needs a statement performance to right the ship. Across from him is Shamil Gaziev, also on difficult footing, a two-fight TKO losing streak, most recently stopped by Brando Pericic in May.
Kennedy holds a five-inch reach advantage at 83 inches, which at heavyweight is a genuine tool.
The xR% numbers are ugly from both sides. 54% for Kennedy, 52% for Shamil. Neither fighter is winning rounds at a clip that inspires confidence. Kennedy’s tougher opponents came at light heavyweight, where the competition level was meaningfully higher than what he’s faced since moving up. Shamil’s toughest tests have resulted in TKO losses, and that pattern tells you something about how he handles pressure.
The striking picture tells a clear story. Kennedy lands 4.68 significant strikes per minute with a modest +0.16 differential, eating his share at 4.52 absorbed per minute, but winning the exchanges. Gaziev lands just 3.01 significant strikes per minute with a damning –2.16 differential, absorbing 5.16 per minute. He is not comfortable on the feet, and those numbers reflect a fighter who gets outworked consistently in striking exchanges.
Gaziev’s path to victory is through the grappling. He holds an extraordinary 97% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges, one of the higher marks you’ll find anywhere, but has only scored four takedowns in his UFC career. At heavyweight, that often translates to cage pressure and clinch work without a ton of action, which is exactly the kind of fight that doesn’t show up clean in the metrics. And the kind of fight nobody wants to see. Kennedy’s 81% takedown defense means getting him down isn’t a given either.
If this fight stays standing, and the model thinks it likely does, the advantage belongs to Nzechukwu in a matchup that feels close to a coin flip on the surface.
Running it through the model, Kennedy Nzechukwu receives a Live Dog designation at +120. A word of caution though, the Live Dog tier has been cold lately and we’re fully aware of it. But in a coin flip scenario, taking the plus money is exactly the right approach. We grabbed him at +120 and that’s the number we’re rolling with.
Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues
Fluffy is back and the model wants him back in a big way.
Anthony Hernandez was on one of the more impressive runs in the middleweight division before running into Sean Strickland in February. An eight-fight UFC win streak, six of those by finish, and a relentless pressure grappling style that had made him one of the more feared fighters in the rankings. The Strickland loss was flat. Hernandez looked nothing like himself, but that loss has aged remarkably well given what Strickland did next, ragaining the Middleweight Championship. The level of opposition wasn’t the problem. The performance was, and Hernandez knows it.
Gregory Rodrigues, aka “Robocop”, enters this main event on a three-fight win streak, most recently delivering a nasty knockout over Brunno Ferreira in May. That win avenged an earlier loss and showed exactly what Rodrigues is capable of when he’s firing on all cylinders. He’s a legitimate threat in any fight he’s in.
The physical matchup is close. Rodrigues holds a three-inch height advantage but reach is identical at 75 inches for both men. Age is nearly the same, 32 for Hernandez, 34 for Rodrigues. The xR% gap is tight but meaningful. 73% for Hernandez and 70% for Rodrigues.
Both men are proven finishers. Seven UFC finishes each. Rodrigues leans on the knockout as he holds seven UFC knockouts, eight knockdowns scored. While Hernandez mixes it up with two knockouts and five submissions. The danger profiles are real on both sides, but they arrive through very different paths.
The striking numbers give Rodrigues the edge on the feet. He lands 5.52 significant strikes per minute with a +0.80 differential, scoring those eight knockdowns with the kind of power that can end a fight at any moment. He does absorb at 4.72 per minute, which tells you he’s been in wars and taken his share. Hernandez lands 4.52 per minute with a cleaner +1.42 differential, absorbing only 3.10 per minute. He’s technically the more efficient striker despite spending just 36% of his time at distance. Avoiding damage is going to be critical for Hernandez in this fight, and historically he’s been very good at it.
Now here’s where the fight is really won or lost.
Anthony Hernandez holds an 82% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges, spends 52% of his fight time in a dominant control position, and has scored 54 UFC takedowns while averaging 11.27 takedown attempts per five minutes. That is one of the most suffocating grappling profiles in the middleweight division. When Fluffy gets a hold of you, the fight moves entirely to his terms.
The honest caveat is his last performance. Against Strickland he attempted just one takedown across three rounds. A complete abandonment of the gameplan that has made him dangerous. There’s no reason that should happen here against Rodrigues, who presents a very different stylistic challenge than the elusive Strickland. Rodrigues defends takedowns at 75%, which is respectable, but against this volume of attempts and this level of grappling pressure, there will be openings.
Running it through the model, the output is clear. Anthony Hernandez receives a Tier 1 Favorite designation, the model has full confidence in his numbers and the matchup. He receives a 71% win probability from the model, and with odds around -165, it’s a bet I’m making.
Check out FightingWithNumbers.com for the full model tale of the tapes, grades, and reports on the fights this weekend.
Good luck Saturday. Enjoy the violence.
