Last week the model went 4–3, bringing the 2026 record to 26–10 overall. A winning week is a winning week, and the approach stays the same. We stay disciplined, find the edges, and let the numbers do the talking.
This week the UFC returns to the Meta APEX for UFC Vegas 114, headlined by Josh Emmett and Kevin Vallejos in a featherweight main event. It’s not the splashiest card on the calendar, but there are real edges buried in here, including a rematch four years in the making and a co-main event the model finds pretty clearly.
Dave Ross and I broke down the full card on this week’s First Strike. Give it a listen/watch at the link below before you finalize your card.
Let’s dig in.
Piera Rodriguez vs Sam Hughes
A rematch four years in the making.
Piera Rodriguez has quietly put together a nice run since entering the UFC in 2022, going 4–2 in the promotion and currently riding a two-fight win streak. Her most recent victory came via decision over Ketlen Souza last August. Across from her is Sam Hughes — “Sampage” — who has had a rockier road. After starting her UFC career with three straight losses, Hughes has bounced between wins and losses before finally stringing together a three-fight win streak, most recently a submission over Shauna Bannon in September. She now sits 6–5 overall in the promotion.
These two have met before, and Rodriguez won that one by unanimous decision.
When we run the numbers, the gap between them is real.
Rodriguez maintains a strong 70% xR%, meaning she’s winning rounds at a high clip. Hughes sits at 53%, which tells the story of a fighter who has given away too many rounds along the way.
The striking paints a similar picture. Rodriguez lands 3.67 significant strikes per minute with a solid +0.79 differential, while only absorbing 2.89 per minute. A genuinely clean profile. Hughes lands slightly more volume at 4.34 per minute, but absorbs even more at 4.44, producing a –0.10 differential. She’s taking more damage than she’s dealing, and that’s a dangerous place to be.
Both women are active in the clinch and on the ground. Their control rates are close — 67% for Rodriguez, 74% for Hughes — but the real separator is the takedown game. Rodriguez has scored 25 takedowns at 66% accuracy. Hughes checks in at just 35% takedown accuracy, and her defense sits at 61%.
In their first meeting, Rodriguez outstruck Hughes 83 to 69 in significant strikes and landed five takedowns. There’s no reason to think this one plays out dramatically differently.
The model agrees. Rodriguez receives a 70.94% win probability, while her current odds of –145 imply only about 59%. That’s a real gap, and it’s enough to put Piera “La Fiera” Rodriguez on the betting slip for Saturday.
Brad Tavares vs Eryk Anders
Thirty-eight years old versus thirty-eight years old.
Welcome to the Paramount Era.
Brad Tavares made his UFC debut back in 2010 through The Ultimate Fighter, which tells you everything you need to know about how long he’s been around. But the recent run has been rough. Since 2022 he’s gone 2–5, most recently a TKO loss in September. Eryk Anders isn’t in a much better spot. He’s also coming off a TKO loss in August and sits at 3–3 since 2022.
Two guys with fading records, fading chins, and a lot of miles on the odometer.
The model sees them as almost dead even on the round-winning side. Tavares sits at 50% xR% and Anders at 49%. Not exactly a number that inspires confidence in either direction.
When we look at the striking, the gap isn’t huge. Tavares lands 3.42 significant strikes per minute with a barely-there +0.06 differential. Anders lands 3.51 per minute but posts a –0.58 differential, absorbing 4.09 strikes per minute. Anders is the one taking the worse of the exchanges overall.
Knockdown history is worth noting here. Both men have been knocked down eight times in their UFC careers, but it’s Tavares who has lost five times by knockout compared to Anders’ two. Anders actually owns more knockout victories, five to Tavares’ two, which starts to build a picture of who the more dangerous puncher is in this matchup.
The real separation comes in the clinch and control. Anders holds a 77% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges. Neither fighter excels at takedowns, both are under 30% accuracy, but Anders’ ability to control those exchanges gives him an advantage even in the stand-up. With both men defending takedowns at an 80% clip, this fight is almost certainly staying on the feet.
This isn’t the prettiest fight on the card. But edges are edges.
The model scores this in favor of the underdog. Eryk Anders receives a 66% win probability, while his current odds of +115 make this a spot worth taking a shot on a small underdog in what figures to be a chaotic fight.
Amanda Lemos vs Gillian Robertson
There’s a sneaky good matchup here in the co-main event, and the numbers tell a pretty clear story.
Amanda Lemos is tough as they come. At 38, she’s clearly in the back half of her career, and the data is starting to reflect that. Since challenging for the belt in 2023, she’s gone 2–2, most recently dropping a decision to Tatiana Suarez last September. She’s a fighter who earned her spot at the top of the division, and that strength of schedule still counts for something.
But across from her is Gillian Robertson, who at just 30 years old is somehow already a UFC veteran. She enters this fight riding a four-fight win streak and has gone 5–1 since 2023. The trajectory couldn’t be more different between these two at this moment.
The xR% gap says it all. Lemos has dipped below the danger line at 48%, a number we’ve started to see regularly from aging fighters in decline. Robertson sits at a much healthier 62%.
The finishing ability on both sides is real. Robertson has 10 UFC finishes, seven by submission. Lemos has five finishes of her own, along with six knockdowns scored in her UFC career, so the power isn’t gone yet. But Robertson has never been knocked down. Posting 62% head strike defense, which suggests she does a good job of not being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
The output numbers are modest for both women. Lemos lands 2.75 significant strikes per minute with a –0.49 differential. Robertson is barely higher at 2.86 per minute with a clean 0.00 differential, meaning she’s breaking even on damage while Lemos is losing that exchange.
The real issue for Lemos is what happens when the striking volume is that low and you’re not compensating elsewhere. Her clinch and ground control rate has dropped to 31%. That’s a number that becomes a real problem against someone like Robertson.
Robertson excels in exactly the areas where Lemos has declined. She posts a 77% control rate, spends 49% of her fight time in control position, and has scored 35 takedowns at 41% accuracy, while attempting 6.13 takedowns per five minutes. That’s a busy, relentless grappling game. Lemos’ takedown defense has slipped to 64%, and she’s given up 12 takedowns in her last five fights alone.
The model sees this one clearly. Gillian Robertson receives a 74.50% win probability. With the odds currently sitting around –190, there’s still enough space between the model’s number and the implied probability to find value. Robertson goes on the slip.
Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos*
This one comes with an asterisk, and we need to be upfront about that before we get into the numbers.
Josh Emmett is 41 years old and has gone 1–4 since 2023. His losses have come against top-tier competition — Zalal, Murphy, Topuria, Rodriguez — and most recently he was submitted by Youssef Zalal via first-round armbar last October. His last victory was back in 2023. That he’s headlining a UFC card says something, either about what the organization thinks of Emmett as a name, or about the state of matchmaking in the Paramount Era. Probably a bit of both.
Across from him stands Kevin Vallejos, 24 years old, riding a six-fight professional win streak and 3–0 inside the UFC. Most recently a TKO win in December.
Here’s where we have to pump the brakes on the model side of things.
Two of Vallejos’ three UFC wins came by early finish, a first-round and a second-round stoppage. That means we simply don’t have enough cage data to run him through the model with the confidence we’d need to track this officially. The 80% xR% we can calculate is promising, but the sample is too thin to treat it as reliable. We’re flagging this fight, not grading it.
What we can do is compare what data we have.
Emmett’s numbers are trending in the wrong direction. His xR% has dropped to 46%, and his striking differential sits at –0.71, absorbing 4.43 significant strikes per minute while only landing 3.72. His head strike accuracy is at 28%. He’s still got the one-punch power, 12 UFC knockdowns, four knockout wins, but the overall profile of a fighter in decline is there.
Vallejos, limited sample and all, lands 5.03 significant strikes per minute with a +1.10 differential and 35% head strike accuracy. He also holds an 88% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges. The tools are there.
The model lands on Vallejos at 69% win probability, but the sportsbooks have already priced him at –590. That number is simply not playable. You can’t lay that price on a fighter with this limited a data set, and you certainly can’t parlay it.
If there’s a spot here for the right kind of bettor, it’s the Vallejos KO/TKO prop at –105. A line that actually reflects some real value given the stylistic matchup. Both men want to stand and throw. Emmett still carries the sneaky knockout power that could ruin any plan, but Vallejos has the youth, the output, and the momentum. That prop is probably the best number on this fight currently.
Just understand what you’re buying into. The data is thin, the main event line is unplayable, and this one carries more uncertainty than the model would normally be comfortable with.
After a 4–3 week, the model sits at 26–10 for the 2026 season. Seven official model predictions on the card this week, with an eye on the future of the featherweight division. The numbers found the edges, now it’s up to Saturday night to do the rest.
If you want more betting breakdowns, Dave Ross and I covered everything on this week’s First Strike. Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts and on YouTube so you never miss an episode. It’s the best UFC betting content you’ll find heading into fight week.
Follow along on X for live reactions, odds movement, and any last-minute updates as the card approaches. You can find me at @TheRobbeo and Dave at @drosssports.
Good luck Saturday. Enjoy the violence.
Model Prediction | Win Prob. %
- Gillian Robertson | 74.50%
- Oumar Sy | 58.13%
- Jose Delgado | 67.12%
- Bruno Silva | 62.30%
- Eryk Anders | 66.33%
- Mktybek Orolbai | 70.83%
- Piera Rodriguez | 70.94%
