Last week the model went 2–1–1, bringing the 2026 record to 33–14–4 overall. Not the cleanest week, but the process stays the same. Find the edges, trust the numbers, and stay disciplined when the market doesn’t give us a reason to act.
This week, we get UFC Seattle and a main event that asks a question the sport hasn’t been able to answer in three years, is there anything left in the tank for Israel Adesanya?
Dave Ross and I broke down the full card on this week’s First Strike with guest Shane Thurston from JustWinBetsBaby.com. Give it a listen at the link before you finalize your card for Saturday.
And now we dig into the numbers.
Casey O’Neill vs Gabriella Fernandes
This one starts with a number that stopped me in my tracks.
Casey O’Neill returns from over a year on the shelf, last seen picking up a decision win over Luana Santos back in August of 2024. A knee injury kept her sidelined through the back half of that year and all of 2025. Before that win, she had dropped two in a row in 2023. She’s 5–2 in her UFC run overall, and the question coming in is what version of her shows up after the layoff.
Across from her is Gabriella Fernandes, who has been the more active fighter lately. Three wins in a row, most recently a decision over Julija Stoliarenko last August, and a 3–2 overall record in the UFC. She comes in with momentum and recent cage time on her side.
Now here’s the number.
Casey O’Neill holds a 66% xR%. That’s a strong, healthy mark that tells you she’s winning rounds at a solid clip. Gabriella Fernandes checks in at 28%. That is not a typo. A 28% xR% is an alarming number, one of the lower marks you’ll come across and it means she is losing the majority of rounds she competes in by a wide margin.
The striking confirms it. O’Neill lands 7.89 significant strikes per minute with a +2.24 differential. That’s an elite output profile. Fernandes lands 3.56 per minute but posts a –1.63 differential, absorbing 5.19 significant strikes per minute while putting up modest volume. She’s taking damage at a high rate and not giving enough back.
The clinch and ground picture isn’t much kinder to Fernandes. O’Neill holds a 68% control rate, has scored eight takedowns at 35% accuracy, and does deal some damage in close. Fernandes checks in with a 12% control rate, only two career takedowns, and spends 36% of her time being controlled. Both women defend takedowns at a similar clip — 70% for O’Neill, 69% for Fernandes — but the control metrics tell you everything you need to know about who dictates where this fight takes place.
Running it through the model, the result is about as one-sided as it gets. Casey O’Neill receives a win probability approaching 90%. That kind of number gives us pause though. When the model gets that confident, it’s worth double-checking whether something in the profile is being weighted too heavily. The layoff is a real factor, and not every fighter returns from extended time off the same way.
But here’s what makes this interesting. Over the weekend, O’Neill was sitting as a favorite around –130. She’s now flipped to +110 on the underdog side. The market moved, and suddenly the model’s confidence meets a price that actually offers value.
The layoff is a legitimate concern. A year away from the cage is real. But the numbers say Casey O’Neill is the better fighter by a significant margin, and at +110 we don’t need to be right 90% of the time to find value.
Terrance McKinney vs Kyle Nelson
There may not be a more stressful betting experience in the sport than putting money on a Terrance McKinney fight.
Let’s set the scene. McKinney has never seen a decision in his professional MMA career. Across 25 fights, not once has a judge’s scorecard mattered. He’s only seen a third round one time. He’s only made it to the second round three times. Everything else has ended in the first round. His average fight time inside the UFC is 2 minutes and 42 seconds.
If you bet McKinney, you are buckling in and hoping the ride ends the right way before the second round even starts.
He enters this one off a first-round submission loss to Chris Duncan back in December, sitting at 4–4 since 2023. Across from him is Kyle Nelson, who is no stranger to finishes himself. 10 wins by finish in his professional career, along with four losses by stoppage. Nelson has gone 4–1–1 since 2023, most recently bouncing back with a decision win over Matt Frevola last October.
The xR% gap is meaningful. McKinney sits at 58%, which is actually higher than you might expect given the chaos he brings to every fight. Nelson checks in at 43%, below the danger line and reflective of a fighter who gives away more rounds than he wins.
The striking numbers tell a similar story. McKinney lands 7.43 significant strikes per minute with a remarkable +3.30 differential. One of the more dominant output profiles you’ll find at lightweight. He’s also scored three knockdowns, though his chin has been tested as well with four knockdowns suffered. Nelson lands 3.60 per minute with a –0.87 differential, absorbing more than he’s giving back.
McKinney is sneakier on the ground than people give him credit for. He holds a 79% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges, has three submission victories in the UFC, and spends 45% of his time in a control position. Nelson brings a 47% control rate and has scored nine takedowns at a concerning 23% accuracy.
The model lands firmly on McKinney, giving him an 82% win probability against implied odds of around 61%. The edge is there on paper.
And yet.
This is a rare full stay-away spot. The model likes McKinney, and frankly so do I. He’s the better fighter and should win this fight more often than not. But the variance and volatility he carries into every fight makes the –162 price tag a tough sell. One wrong exchange, one submission attempt that catches him, and that ticket is done before you’ve gotten comfortable on the couch.
If McKinney ever finds himself at a plus price, he’s a fascinating play. At –162, the juice doesn’t justify the stomach it takes to watch him fight. Sitting this one out.
Alexa Grasso vs Maycee Barber
A rematch five years in the making, and the numbers may suggest a different result this time around.
These two first met in February of 2021, with the odds even at –110 on both sides. Alexa Grasso took that one by unanimous decision. But context matters. Maycee Barber was just 22 years old at the time, very much still in prospect territory, and was returning from a knee injury she’d suffered in her previous loss. A different fighter than the one stepping into the cage this Saturday.
The trajectories since that first meeting couldn’t be more different.
Alexa Grasso shocked the world in 2023, submitting Valentina Shevchenko as a +575 underdog to capture the flyweight championship. It’s one of the great upsets in women’s MMA history. But since that night, she’s gone 0–2–1, with back-to-back decision losses including a defeat to Natalia Silva last May. She returns now looking to prove she still belongs among the elite.
Maycee Barber, meanwhile, has been quietly building something. She enters this fight on a seven-fight win streak dating back to 2021, and is doing her best to live up to the nickname “The Future” in the most literal sense possible. She sees this fight as her statement moment, a win over a former champion that puts her in title shot conversations.
The xR% gap is telling. Grasso has dipped to 51% after this rough stretch, essentially a coin flip on rounds. Barber sits at a healthy 67%, consistently winning the rounds she competes in.
The striking numbers favor Barber as well. Grasso lands 4.11 significant strikes per minute with a +0.38 differential, absorbing 3.73 per minute. Barber is cleaner across the board, 4.29 significant strikes per minute with a +1.62 differential while absorbing under three significant strikes per minute at 2.67. She’s busier, she’s more accurate, and she’s taking less damage. That’s a strong striking profile at any level.
On paper, the ground game surprisingly doesn’t save Grasso either. Barber holds a 42% control rate compared to just 28% for Grasso. Barber has scored 15 takedowns to Grasso’s six, and while neither woman shines particularly bright in the takedown department, Grasso defends at 55%, Barber at 48%. The overall grappling picture still leans toward Barber.
Running it through the model, Barber receives a 77.7% win probability. Her current odds of –160 imply roughly 61%, and that gap is exactly the kind of edge we like to look for.
Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer
There are certain fighters in UFC history where you have to separate who they were from who they are now. Israel Adesanya demands that conversation.
At his peak, Adesanya was as dominant as any middleweight champion the promotion has ever seen. He captured the interim belt in 2019, unified it against Robert Whittaker that same year, and went on to defend the title six times — running through Yoel Romero, Paulo Costa, Marvin Vettori, Whittaker in a rematch, and Jared Cannonier along the way. He sits top 10 all-time in middleweight wins, holds the second-longest win streak in divisional history at 12 fights, and is tied with Anderson Silva for most knockdowns scored at middleweight with 13. The résumé is real, and it deserves to be acknowledged.
But this is 2026, and the last three years have told a different story.
After losing his title to Alex Pereira and recapturing it in a memorable rematch, Adesanya dropped a stunning one-sided decision to Sean Strickland as a –650 favorite. Then came a fourth-round submission loss to Dricus Du Plessis. Then a second-round TKO loss to Nassourdine Imavov in 2025. Three fights, three losses, none of them particularly close.
At 36 years old, the model is starting to reflect what the eye test has been suggesting.
Across from him stands Joe Pyfer, seven years younger and riding a three-fight win streak. Pyfer has gone 6–1 since entering the UFC in 2022 and has not been stopped inside the octagon. He carries five UFC finishes and enters this fight as the hungrier, more ascending fighter on the card.
The reach advantage belongs to Adesanya, a five-inch edge at 80 inches. And that has always been a weapon for him. Strength of schedule also goes to the former champion, who has spent years fighting the best the division had to offer.
But the numbers are the numbers.
Pyfer holds a 67% xR%, a strong mark that reflects his ability to control and win rounds. Adesanya has slipped to 56%, not catastrophic, but a meaningful decline for a fighter who once made round-winning look effortless.
On the striking side, Adesanya lands 4.02 significant strikes per minute with a +0.82 differential and still carries that knockdown power. Pyfer lands 3.48 per minute with a +0.32 differential. Both men absorb nearly identical amounts, 3.20 for Adesanya and 3.16 for Pyfer, which tells you the output edge still belongs to the former champ, even if it’s narrowed considerably.
The grappling picture is straightforward. Adesanya defends takedowns at 77%, Pyfer holds a 44% control rate but has only scored four takedowns in the UFC. This fight plays out standing. Paramount Era through and through. Pyfer will need to close the distance, get in Adesanya’s face, and make it an uncomfortable, dirty fight to neutralize that reach.
Running it through the model, the numbers land on the underdog. Joe Pyfer receives a 65% win probability, while his current odds of +120 imply roughly 45%. That’s a meaningful gap, and it’s a number that makes sense when you look at the trajectory of both fighters.
Israel Adesanya at –140 on a three-fight losing streak against a younger, ascending contender is a tough sell. If he shows up and proves he’s still the Last Stylebender, nobody will be more surprised than the model. But the numbers say the edge belongs to Pyfer, and at +120, that’s a price worth backing.
The model sits at 33–14–4 for the 2026 season, and the discipline that built that record is the same discipline that keeps us off a –162 ticket on the most volatile fighter in the lightweight division.
If you want the full card breakdown, Dave Ross and I covered everything on this week’s First Strike. Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts and on YouTube so you never miss an episode.
Follow along on X for live reactions, odds movement, and any last-minute updates as fight week rolls on. Find me at @TheRobbeo and Dave at @drosssports.
Good luck Saturday. Enjoy the violence.
Model Prediction | Win Prob.%
- Michael Chiesa | 78.86%
- Ricky Simon | 70.48%
- Casey O’Neill | 90.51%
- Terrance McKinney | 82.92%
- Maycee Barber | 77.70%
- Joe Pyfer | 65.67%
*BOLD fighters are in play
