UFC 301 Best Bets
This week’s UFC 301 will be held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, for a card featuring a Brazil against the world theme, as Brazilian athletes are featured in all fourteen fights presented.
The Brazilians will battle combatants from Peru, Lithuania, Wales, Ukraine, the United States, and France, among other participating athletes shipping in from various countries.
Last week, favorites realized a 7-6 mark, making chalk 111-56-4 this year or 64.9%.
My release of Over 4.5 Rds in the main event between Alex Perez and Mateus Nicolau lost, making profitability on the year for this column 10-7 +6.23 units.
Time to get back in the win column!
Alexandre Pantoja -185 vs. Steve Erceg +155
Flyweight (125 pounds) Championship
Last week, we witnessed a top-ranked Brazilian flyweight get KO’d in the second round of the main event.
This week’s main event features flyweight Brazilian champion Alexandre Pantoja, who opened -250 against challenger Steve Erceg from Australia +210. Since opening, we have witnessed a tsunami of money being dumped on the challenger, who now sits at +155.
Erceg, 5’8”, is huge for the weight class but inexperienced as he arrives just 3-0 in UFC competition. He’s earned decision victories against two lower-ranked opponents before finishing a porcelain-jawed journeyman in Matt Schnell in his most recent bout.
Erceg is ranked tenth in the division and makes his appearance in this headliner based on situational need. The UFC was left without a dance partner for Pantoja after the original opponent, Manuel Kape, dropped out.
Erceg is a singularly dimensioned power striker. He displays a 77% rate of takedown defense, though the foes he’s faced in the UFC and prior offered him only pure striking attacks. We’ve yet to see Erceg compete against any real form of grappler/wrestler in his career to date and that all changes Saturday.
In Pantoja, we get a Brazilian mixed martial artist who has had to scratch, scrape, and claw his way to the title through elite adversaries and a fighter who, in his last five bouts, has dominated every elite, skilled threat in the division.
Pantoja trains at Florida’s ATT, a renowned gym featuring numerous skilled fighters with diverse body types and fight weaponry. Competing at ATT allows him to refine his fight arsenal daily against every form of skilled competition.
Pantoja’s a brilliant grappler supplemented with superior striking aptitude and a depth of experience that’s been developed against the ultimate athletes in the division.
Add to this the fact that he competes in front of his Brazilian compatriots on Saturday, and we have the recipe for a fighter poised to offer his absolute best effort.
It’s my judgment that Pantoja will need to be guarded and evasive early in this fight. He’ll adhere to a strategy of sapping the Australian slugger of his speed, power, and ferocity in the first rounds. From there, Pantoja will employ his mobility, diversity, and experience to outmaneuver Erceg, force him against the cage, and eventually ground the overmatched Aussie to gain top position and dominate.
Pantoja may have to weather early Erceg striking ferocity, but eventually, his speed, skill, depth of experience, and championship pedigree will contribute to allowing Pantoja to display his prowess.
It’s my position that Pantoja was a value at the opening number, let alone at his current price.
UFC 301 Best Bet: Pantoja -185
Total in this UFC 301 main event: 3.5 Rds Over -130.
Vitor Petrino -520 vs. Anthony Smith +400
Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)
Unranked Brazilian athlete Petrino, 11-0 professionally and 4-0 in the UFC, will arrive at this fight with the crowd’s favor, tremendous momentum, and the seeming ability to finish opponents based on his previous body of work.
However, scrutinizing his career results leaves me with the impression that Petrino is as bloated a favorite as we have seen in the UFC in several months.
Three of the athletes Petrino has defeated in the UFC are no longer with the organization; the other one is of journeyman caliber.
Sure, Petrino has shown finishing ability, tremendous explosion, and power, but in this one, he steps up in class substantially.
Petrino’s advantage is that he is nine years the younger man and competing in his home country. Still, in this tussle against tenth-ranked UFC veteran Anthony Smith, he will be giving away two inches of height beside a busload of experience and fight aptitude.
Anthony Smith enters this fight having lost three of his last four fights, but let’s not overlook that those losses were against certified top-fifteen caliber players in the division. His victory was against fifteenth-ranked Ryan Spann.
Smith, a black belt in BJJ, is also a well-rounded striker who uses all four appendages to apply pressure upon opponents. He can wrestle, grapple, and compete wherever this fight transitions to, and he arrives in Rio feeling disrespected. Here is another case where I believe a fighter is poised to put up a very polished performance.
This line seems completely out of whack, so I will make a nominal investment in Smith based on principle.
UFC 301 Best Bet: Smith .25u to earn 1.0u
Total in this fight 1.5 Rds. Over -165
UFC 301 Best Bet: Over -165
This line does not accurately reflect Smith’s fighting ability as I look for this one to go to the judges.
Friday mid-day PST, the GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at www.GambLou.com
Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
