UFC 303 Best Bets
Welcome to my UFC 303 best bets!
UFC 303 takes place this weekend from the T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The PPV event has been upgraded by adding a top-line main event and highly competitive co-main event in place of the originally scheduled charade that featured Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler. It now becomes a more spectacular card with the addition of Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka as the main event and Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes as its co-main event.
Last week, I took advantage of a rare opportunity to invest in an elite, pedigreed, top-three-rated fighter facing a rising but unproven commodity when Robert Whittaker violently knocked out Ikram Aliskerov in the first round. Whittaker’s dominant finish over Aliskerov thrusts my UFC profitability this year to 15-12 +6.03u.
Favorites in the UFC are 67% (171-80-4) in 2024. My digital win percentage of 55.5%, coupled with an average win price of +120, provided readers with a great advantage, especially considering this year’s high rate of favorites.
This week, we’ll have a live, raucous crowd for UFC 303 in Las Vegas, and the larger 30-foot cage will be in use,
Early prelims begin at 3 p.m. PT, preliminary action starts at 5 p.m. PT, and the main card kicks off at 7 p.m. PT.
Alex Pereira -135 vs. Jiri Prochazka +120
Light Heavyweight (205 pounds) Championship
This is a rematch of the championship bout waged last November when Prochazka opened -135 then closed +105 against Pereira. In that bout, the forward-pressing Prochazka’s aggression won him the first round before he became overly reckless. He believed he could compete effectively with a world-class kickboxing specialist who is also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu in Pereira and was KO’d four minutes into the second round for that confidence.
Since that fight, Pereira knocked out Jamahal Hill in one round in April’s UFC 300 while Prochazka found himself in a firefight with Aleksandar Rakic on that same card. He won via finish in the second round in a fight where he absorbed substantial damage but was unwilling to acquiesce and used his will to earn victory.
Each man takes this fight on short notice in order to help the UFC salvage this fight card when McGregor vacated the main event with a bruise on his little toe. Prochazka is the number one ranked contender to Pereira’s crown. While this will be a thrilling rematch, there is little reason to believe that the result we witnessed in November should be much different now in July.
Many will claim that Prochazka has a grappling advantage in this matchup, but I beg to differ. Not only is Pereira a black belt in BJJ, but he has also been under the tutelage of Glover Teixeira for several years. I believe we haven’t seen Pereira apply grappling into his fights because he has not had to call upon the specialty. None of his foes have forced him to defend the takedown, nor have they pursued him with any grappling advances. Rather, Pereira’s foes have chosen to compete with the world-class striking talent at his strength, which is dumbfounding.
Prochazka’s unorthodox striking style, his low defensive guard, and his ability to unleash power from any appendage surely make him an adversary to respect, even fear, but Pereira is the more calculated, matriculated, battle-tested power striker, and his defensive abilities are more established than those of Prochazka.
In a fight where either man can put the other man’s lights out, I’ll lean to Pereira in this competitive bout simply because he has more ways to earn victory. His defense is substantially more advanced, and he carries the momentum of his victory over Prochazka just seven months ago into this rematch.
UFC 303 Best Bet: Pereira -130
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds. Over -175
UFC 303 Best Bet: Lean Over
Diego Lopes -148 vs. Brian Ortega +125
Featherweight co-main event
This co-main event will be Lopes’ first foray into five rounds. The fourteenth-ranked Lopes has only four UFC bouts of experience. He lost his debut to a ranked Mosvar Evloev but rebounded by finishing each of his last three unranked foes.
Lopes, who has been extremely active since he entered the UFC, opened a +130 underdog for this bout. He will be the taller, longer, younger athlete in the cage on Saturday, but he’ll be giving away a great deal of cage experience to his adversary. His opponent also has more five-round big fight experience than Brian Ortega. Lopes has competed against the division’s elite over the last few years.
Lopes would be wise to keep this fight standing where his physical traits can be applied. Though he is a black belt in BJJ, I give Ortega an advantage in grappling and ground rolling.
This fight will offer fans striking, grappling, rolling, and submission attempts, which I handicap as a true display of mixed martial arts from both athletes. That said, Ortega was opened the rightful -150 favorite according to my handicapping which I choose to believe is the more appropriate depiction of these men’s fight abilities TODAY
In a highly competitive battle, Ortega’s experience, guile, and craftiness should be the difference over a man in Lopes who is stepping up in competition for this test. I’ll side with the more experienced fighter who opened the favorite and has now become the underdog.
Recency…. It sometimes tells lies.
Total for this fight: 1.5 Rds Over -220
Roman Dolidze -145 vs. Anthony Smith +125
Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)
I’m breaking down big boy fighters today, for there are much more violent tendencies when large men fight than when smaller men compete in the cage. The finishing rate for light heavyweight athletes in the UFC since 2014 is 60%, which is the highest rate of any division in the UFC except for heavyweight.
Roman Dolidze takes this fight on several days’ notice. He trains between California and X-Treme Couture in Las Vegas, which takes travel out of the complex, short-notice nature of this battle. However, Dolidze competes at middleweight or 185 pounds and steps up in weight class against a legitimate, tenth-ranked light heavyweight for this fight.
Anthony Smith accepts this challenge on short notice also, and he now competes against Dolidze, who brings a much different fighting style than Smith’s original opponent, Carlos Ulberg.
Dolidze is less elite on the feet than Ulberg. In fact, he is wildly powerful yet lacking pace, precision, and quickness. Where Smith’s original opponent Ulberg had no ability to grapple, Dolidze is a talented grappling threat and may choose to attack Smith with that approach.
Anthony Smith is elite anywhere a fight takes place. He is a gifted grappler/wrestler and can strike effectively, though any power in his striking is accrued over time, for he does not possess one punch, fight-ending power.
Once this fight begins, Dolidze will immediately look to engage, press forward, and unleash power, striking to try to put Smith on his heels. Smith will look to boomerang Dolidze’s aggression into the opportunity to take him to the floor and then force him to expend energy to return to his feet, as Smith will be the larger force in the cage.
Smith will use his crafty veteran experience to bewilder Dolidze on the feet until he can manipulate the smaller Georgian fighter onto the mat. There, he may then rain strikes, elbows, and eventually submission attempts upon Dolidze, who is tough, durable, and willing yet rough around the edges when it comes to the refinement of fighting.
Dolidze’s approach is quite simple: apply forward pressure and utilize his fight-ending power to bludgeon any opponent.
The risk Dolidze takes in competing with Smith is that Smith’s seen every style of light heavyweight foe. He will be more than willing to allow Dolidze to front run until he makes a mistake, which is when the highly experienced Smith will make him pay for his aggressive nature.
As I break this fight down, I see the violent nature of Dolidze being eventually subdued by the diplomacy of the more well-rounded mixed martial artist Smith. For that reason, I’ll invest in
UFC 303 Best Bet: Anthony Smith +125
As we get back to releasing an underdog.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -120
UFC 303 Best Bet: Lean over
The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday midday PT and is available at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading. Enjoy the hostilities!
