UFC 305 Predictions:
Perth, Australia, is the location for this week’s UFC 305. Competing fighters will benefit from a hysterical Aussie crowd witnessing twelve scheduled bouts in a large 30-foot cage where preliminary action begins at 3:30 pm PT. The card features nine Australians, seven of whom face opponents from around the globe. As is always the case when the UFC travels to locations throughout the world, it’s important to understand who the local athletes are and which fighters, if any, are likely to benefit from potential favorable matchmaking, lack of travel, and potential ‘home cooking’ decision results. Let’s look at our UFC 305 predictions.
Last week, Serghei Spivac earned digital readers another unit of profit as he submitted Polish heavyweight fighter Marcin Tybura in the first round. Spivac is a heavyweight that can whup anyone on the roster save the top-five ranked heavyweights in the division.
UFC favorites 2024: 220-97-8 (67.6%)
2024 Digital results: 20-16 +8.73 (+123)
Dricus Du Plessis +110 vs. Israel Adesanya -130
Middleweight Championship (185 pounds)
DDP is a massive, profusely powerful South African kickboxing talent. He is 7-0 in the UFC but has only defeated two elite middleweight opponents. One could argue that the title he won came via a faulty split decision.
Du Plessis is a forward-pressing, heavy-handed striker who can numb legs with his kicks and shut down foe’s consciousness with this power striking. Du Plessis is neither swift afoot nor nimble in evading strikes, but in his way, he is awkwardly agile, tough, and durable. Since his nose operation, he seems to be able to fight without any cardiovascular issues.
In former champion and second-ranked middleweight Adesanya, Du Plessis draws an opponent not only four inches taller than him but one with considerable speed/quickness advantages. Even though Adesanya is now 35, the Nigerian is light years ahead of Du Plessis when it comes to innate quickness, precision striking, strike defense, and athleticism.
The question with Adesanya is not whether he can defeat Du Plessis; it’s whether he is property-focused, trained, and motivated to take aggressive action when this fight calls for him to inflict damage.
Motivation is rarely questioned when fighting for a UFC title, and in this case, with the rivalry between them and each claiming to be ‘the’ authentic African athlete, motivation is not questioned. What may be called into question rather than motivation is emotion.
Emotion is rarely a fighter’s friend; it must always be checked and eradicated. That said, in this fight, I sense an abundance of emotion emanating from Adesanya.
Adesanya’s physical fight plan is simple: use his speed, quickness, combination striking, and deft defense to befuddle DDP and force him into becoming predictable by charging inside to engage.
DDP needs to be patient. He needs to understand that this is a twenty-five-minute fight, and it may take him all twenty-five minutes to badger/frustrate Adesanya, force him into a corner, and unleash power hooks and crosses to the body and head.
DDP will look to shut the lights out on Issy with bludgeoning strikes and kicks, while Adesanya will look to shred DDP with accumulated volume and eventually take him out by utilizing space, time, angles, and combination striking—provided he is level, balanced, and focused mentally.
This title defense is the first real test for DDP as he was awarded a close decision against Sean Strickland, and now, he must face Issy in Australia with all his fellow ‘sandgropers’ cheering him on.
DDP has been constantly chiding Issy leading up to fight week, and I wonder if his quips about Issy being in his own head may be getting to the former champion.
DDP must remain logical and clinical in this fight, He must follow his plan and hope that over time he can suck some of the speed and zip from Adesanya to try to catch him with any form of devastating strike, kick, or elbow.
Adesanya, for his part, must remain stone-faced and without emotion. If he can maintain his emotional control, he stands a great chance of finishing DDP. If Adesanya gets emotional and wanders from his team’s plan, then he’ll have to find a way to live with the outcome of this fight, one he should technically win.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Under -145
Steve Erceg -205 `vs. Kai Kara-France +180
Flyweight (125 pounds) co-main event
Fourth-ranked Erceg leaped up the flyweight rankings after his impressive title opportunity against current champion Alexandre Pantoja.
Erceg is a balanced mixed martial artist, he can grapple a good game and has size, length and effective striking ability. He also provided the current flyweight champion a bona fide scare in their recent title fight, and we can add confidence to his already complete MMA weaponry.
In Erceg, we have a fighter who, in my judgment, may not be defeated for some time in this division should he defeat the elite Kara-France. Kara-France is an authentic and difficult test for Erceg as Kara-France is deeply experienced, has competed against the elite of the division and has earned finishes via the KO and submission.
Kara France is 3-2 in his last five fights, losing his last two straight to former champion Brandon Moreno and then a razor-close, controversial loss to Amir Albazi in a fight that most believed Kara-France won.
Kara-France is the older fighter. He has an experience edge over Erceg as well he may be the quicker of the two, but he’ll need to be able to deal with Erceg’s power grappling.
Erceg opened eyes with his battle against Pantoja, so he will not sneak up on anyone in this division now, but the question is whether Erceg is a legitimate threat to the flyweight title?
With a dominant performance at UFC 305 Saturday night against a division mainstay in Kara-France, the answer must be a resounding yes.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -250
Luana Santos -165 vs. Casey O’Neill +145
Women’s flyweight (125 pounds)
Brazilian Santos is 24. She’s 3-0 in the UFC but has competed only against a nominal set of UFC mixed martial artists. A judo and BJJ practitioner, Santos is aggressive and willing but has yet to share the cage with any legitimate bona fide adversary. That said, she has looked efficient in disposing of who has been put in front of her.
Scotland’s O’Neill, who currently trains in Las Vegas at Xtreme Couture, enters the loser of her last two. Her loss to Jenn Maia was a tight fight and can be understood as she was coming off of an injury into that bout. Her last outing was worrisome as O’Neill looked passive and lethargic in a submission loss to Ariane Lipski, a fight that O’Neill should have won.
Santos arrives looking to take O’Neill’s 15th ranking in the division away from her, while O’Neill is poised to regain control of her ranking with a stellar showing off of that last loss.
O’Neill is a well-equipped, versatile fighter. She possesses expertise in Muay Thai striking, has earned a brown belt in BJJ, and was brought up in kickboxing by her father.
O’Neill is older by two years and holds a good deal of experience over Santos and experience against a higher level of competition at that. She’ll be the slightly larger athlete in the cage Saturday so with her diverse mixed martial arts weaponry, and her desperation to reaffirm her standing in the division it’s my belief that she comes out and competes in dominant fashion.
O’Neill opened -150 for this fight, and now she’s a decent-sized underdog. I prefer to believe that the opening number is a more appropriate depiction of this fight’s outcome than current pricing.
UFC 305 Best Bet: O’Neill +145
I released O’Neill +155 on Monday’s ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast, so we are seeing a little buyback on her. I’d say jump her now before more advantage in her price evaporates.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -240
