UFC 308 Predictions for Topuria vs. Holloway:
VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess offers his UFC 308 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
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Ilia “El Matador” Topuria (-278) vs Max “Blessed” Holloway (+225)
Over 4.5 Rounds (+105) | Under 4.5 Rounds (-135)
I have been an Ilia Topuria fan since he won his UFC debut as an underdog vs. Youssef Zalal back in 2020. Now, four years have passed. He has won seven fights in the UFC and may be the current UFC champion with the highest upside. He is only 27 and has already knocked out the previous featherweight “GOAT,” Alexander Volkanovski. Four of his UFC wins have come via KO, one has come via submission, and he has only seen the scorecards twice in his entire career!
Topuria is 15-0 as a professional, and at every level of the fight game, he has dominated opponents. Perhaps his closest fight came versus Jai Herbert in 2022. Topuria took the fight on short notice, and it took place up a weight class at 155 pounds. He ate a head kick that almost took the “and 0” from his record… But he recovered and landed a devastating second-round KO. His successive fights derailed the Bryce Mitchell hype train and included a five-round dismantling of everyone’s favorite “Hall of Very Good” member, Josh Emmett. Then, it was the fight versus Volkanovski, where he raised the strap.
Statistically, Topuria is very good, especially defensively. He has fought a very tough schedule, but he has managed to avoid an astounding 65% of his opponents’ significant strikes. Additionally, he has the striking stats to back up his impressive KO record, landing 4.4 significant strikes per minute. On the ground, he completes over half the takedowns he attempts and only one opponent has succeeded in landing a takedown (Bryce Mitchell went 1/9). The tale of the tape is also impressive, considering he is just 5’7”, but his 69-inch reach matches that of his four-inch taller opponent, Max Holloway.
Max Holloway is the definition of a fighter that grew up in the game. At 32, he is 22-7 in the UFC, making his debut way back in February of 2012. He has fought the best of the best, both now and in previous eras. Seven losses may concern some people, but three of those came in largely competitive fights versus peak Alex Volkanovski, two losses to Dustin Poirier (one up a weight class at lightweight), and his others came to Dennis Bermudez at the peak of his power, and Conor McGregor on his way to the pinnacle of the sport. Losing is never good, but those are the best seven losses in UFC history. It also should be noted that Holloway is a former featherweight champion, and he is undefeated at featherweight versus anyone not named Alexander Volkanovski since 2014. Most recently, Holloway returned to lightweight to fight Justin Gaethje for the “BMF” belt and provided one of the most iconic performances of all time as he won with a KO four minutes and fifty-nine seconds into the fifth round.
Statistically, Max is a madman. He has been fighting the absolute best of the best for over a decade and still lands 7.7 significant strikes per minute over the course of his entire career. He has fought strikers, he has fought grapplers, he has fought submission specialists, and it really doesn’t matter. He lands more punches and is nearly impossible to take down.
Both of these guys have knockouts in this division and up at lightweight. Both of these guys have unique skill sets and both guys have dealt with adversity. Max has tasted defeat and come back better than ever. Topuria is yet to fully pick himself up off the mat as he is still undefeated. Topuria is up for this moment. Holloway is the same calm, cool, and collected professional that he has been since his early 20s. This will be a treat to watch, and this is already a fight-of-the-year candidate before the ref even closes the cage door.
Topuria has finishing skills but he is also excellent in his preparation. Vokanovski tried to land the head kick that Jai Herbert landed, and Topuria was ready. Max Holloway doesn’t necessarily change up his style from opponent to opponent. He is aggressive, throws volume, and perhaps a bit too eager to trade. That said, he has never been knocked out. Max also has some of the best cardio in the organization, just as deadly in Round 5 as in Round 1. This is one of the toughest fights to call I have ever seen, but I think Max is more ready for Topuria’s style than vice versa.
FIGHT WINNER: Max Holloway
UFC 308 BET: Max Holloway (+225) vs Topuria, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.25
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Robert “The Reaper” Whittaker (+190) vs Khamzat “Borz” Chimaev (-230)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-120) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-110)
Robert Whittaker is a former champ who wore the belt due to sheer willpower and consistency. In an organization full of elite athletes, he does not stick out. But since 2014, he has lost to two fighters: former champion Israel Adesanya and current champion Dricus Du Plessis. He isn’t a knockout artist, but you don’t want to eat his punches. He isn’t a true grappler, but you don’t want him on your back. He is good everywhere and elite nowhere, which puts him in a much better position to win fights than most middleweights. My intention is not to diminish Whittaker’s skills but instead to point out how far pure power of will and fight IQ can take you if you are willing to commit your life to the fight game. I also think Whittaker believes he has a legitimate path back to the belt. Adesanya was a terrible matchup for Whittaker’s style. Du Plessis caught him in their first fight, but Whittaker is not afraid of trying that bout again. A win over Chimaev puts him on the shortlist for the next title shot.
Khamzat Chimaev took the organization by storm during the COVID era. He won three fights and earned three performance bonuses in three months. He was awarded a bonus in his first five fights in the UFC. He is all-out aggression personified. He charges at his opponents on the starting bell and forces takedowns behind looping power shots with his hands. When his level of competition increased, his results became much less emphatic. Chimaev also has struggled with making weight repeatedly and was the last fighter to make weight on the UFC 308 card. He also has been known to gas out, and this is his first scheduled five-round bout. When he took on undersized veterans Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, he was spent after not getting an early finish. Despite winning both fights, he lost both third rounds and was saved by the final bell.
If Whittaker can play defense early, he will win this fight late. He has watched the tape and it’s very clear that Chimaev was saved by the bell versus his strongest opposition. Whittaker will not be intimidated and knows this is a massive opportunity that could lead to a major payday.
FIGHT WINNER: Robert Whittaker
UFC 308 BET: Robert Whittaker (+190) vs Chimaev, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.9
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Magomed Ankalaev (-375) vs Aleksandar “Rocket” Rakic (+295)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-215) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+165)
Magomed Ankalaev should have already fought for a belt, but a few boring fights at bad times have stifled his upward trajectory. He lost his UFC debut via submission in the final second of that fight and has since gone 10-0-1 in the organization. Six of his UFC wins have come via KO, with the other four on the scorecards. He fought a brutally slow fight versus Jan Blachowicz that was ultimately scored a draw, and he has not been able to shake the stink of that fight despite destroying Johnny Walker with a brutal KO in January of this year. If he wins here, his claim at a title shot is undeniable.
Aleksandar Rakic was ascending in the UFC before he sustained a brutal leg injury in a fight versus Jan Blachowicz. The recovery cost him two years of action. Instead of a soft landing comeback fight, he took on Jiri Prochazka at UFC 300. That fight was wild. Both men landed heavy, but the wild and crazy fighting style is not Rakic’s bread and butter and he ultimately lost via KO. From the frying pan to the fire, he is now fighting another opponent who is just as powerful but also much more technical.
I do not see Rakic getting his wrestling going in this fight, and I think the technical striking completely favors Ankalaev. Rakic does have one-punch power, but Ankalaev is defensively sound. Finding his chin is virtually impossible.
FIGHT WINNER: Magomed Ankalaev
UFC 308 BET: Parlay Piece, see below
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Lerone “The Miracle” Murphy (-258) vs Dan “50K” Ige (+210)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-500) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+340)
If this fight had occurred six months ago, I would firmly be on the Ige side. But Murphy’s performance in a Fight Night main event vs. the striking legend Edson Barboza showed great improvement, mainly in his ability to be aggressive and impose his will, unlike an opponent who fires devastating blows. Additionally, he showed high fight IQ, turning to takedowns in the later rounds to make sure Barboza’s chances at landing a Hail Mary haymaker were completely limited. Additionally, Murphy fits the profile of a title contender, landing 54% of his significant strikes while avoiding 60% of those thrown by his opponents.
Dan Ige is hard not to like. He recently took a fight on four hours’ notice versus the surging Diego Lopes and was much more competitive than many expected. He started slow but won the third round. However, after that fight, the UFC was supposed to reward him, and maybe they did financially, but not in matchmaking. Murphy is a fighter on the rise, and Ige has lost five of his last eight fights. He is a solid striker with good defense, but overall, his numbers lag behind Murphy’s.
FIGHT WINNER: Lerone Murphy
UFC 308 BET: Parlay: Lerone Murphy/Magomed Ankalaev (-133), Risk 1.33 Units to Win 1
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Shara “Bullet” Magomedov vs Armen “Superman” Petrosyan
Over 2.5 Rounds (-280) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+210)
Shara Magomedov is one of the more hyped-up prospects in the past few years. His pre-UFC highlight reel is the stuff of legend, and he is currently undefeated at 14-0. The highlights haven’t really materialized since joining the UFC roster. He won a decision as a
-300 favorite versus Bruno Silva in his debut, knocked out a short-notice opponent Antonio Trocoli in the third round in his encore, and then went the distance as a -325 favorite versus Michal Oleksiejczuk. This indicates that his power is overstated, but his volume is not, and neither is his accuracy. His defense, on the other hand, is quite amateurish, allowing opponents to land 59% of their strikes.
Armen Petrosyan is a solid kickboxer who needs to avoid going to the ground at all costs. Versus an opponent like Magomedov, that should not be a problem. His striking metrics are not as good as those of Magomedov, but his defense is substantially better, and his level of competition is also much higher. In a stand-up MMA fight, I lean towards the underdog here. That said, it is so early in Shara’s career I’m not 100% certain he won’t put his best foot forward now that he is on a big stage.
FIGHT WINNER: Armen Petrosyan
UFC 308 BET: Pass
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Ibo “The Last Ottoman” Aslan (+100) vs Raffael “The Lion” Cerqueira (-120)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-115) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-115)
Ibo Aslan is 1-0 in the UFC after a grudge match with an opponent he lost to on the regional scene, Anton Turkalj. Aslan is an all-gas-no-brakes fighter who has 11 wins via first-round knockout. His other two victories were via third-round knockout, which indicates his power is present even if he slows down regarding volume late in a fight. Raffel Cerqueira is a similarly aggressive fighter with an 11-0 record and 10 wins inside the distance. I think his strength of schedule stinks. He has not fought any UFC quality opponents and has been fighting guys with less professional fights much too often for my liking. I lean to Aslan because he is more familiar with a UFC fight week.
FIGHT WINNER: Ibo Aslan
UFC 308 BET: Pass
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Geoff “Hands of Steel” Neal (-310) vs Rafael dos Anjos (+250)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-210) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+160)
Geoff Neal has earned it every step of his UFC journey. He is 7-4 in the organization and just 2-4 in his last six fights, but I am not quite ready to say his career is all downhill from here. He most recently lost a split decision to Ian Machado Garry as a +210 underdog. Before that, he lost to Shavkat Rakhmonov, who will be challenging Belal Muhammad for the welterweight belt in the coming months. He has victories over veterans Vicente Luque, Santiago Ponzinibbio, and even the current champion Belal Muhammad.
Rafael dos Anjos is a former lightweight champion who has spent the last several years as a 170-pounder. Considering he is now 40, I don’t blame him for skipping the extreme weight cut. He has been fighting top welterweights since making the jump, so his record is not quite as pristine as it once was. He also has shown a weakness when forced to wrestle in recent fights, which is strange because BJJ was once his calling card. Now he makes his hay with fight IQ and striking defense, which only gets you so far as your body diminishes. Geoff Neal has a clear striking advantage but has more holes defensively.
This one is tough to call because there is a world where “Hands of Steel” reminds us why he earned that nickname. There is another world where RDA takes the initiative wrestling and manages to hold his opponent down most of the fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Geoff Neal
UFC 308 BET: Pass
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Myktybek Orolbai (-310) vs Mateusz “Rebeasti” Rebecki (+250)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-135) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+105)
Myktybek Orolbai opened some eyes with his UFC debut versus Uros Medic. He dispelled the dangerous striker with a submission and moved on to the next opponent. His second fight was perhaps more impressive. He went down to Brazil and dominated the always dangerous Elves Brenner over three rounds, winning by a unanimous decision. His strategy is no mystery. He lands 7.44 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage, and he has landed 5+ in both fights in the UFC so far. Perhaps the biggest fault in his game thus far is that he has the potential to be a decision fighter, as evidenced by the seven takedown/no finish result in his matchup with Brenner.
The good news is his opponent, Mateusz Rebecki, has only seen judges scorecards in three of 21 professional fights. He is 19-2 as a pro with 9 knockouts and seven submissions. He pushes pace from the beginning, which was his downfall in his last matchup vs. the veteran Diego Ferreira. He came out guns blazing, per usual, but ran out of gas and got finished via ground and pound late in the third round. The good news for Rebecki is Orolbai has much less UFC experience than Ferreira, but the bad news is Orolbai is a much more dangerous fighter at this point in his career.
FIGHT WINNER: Myktybek Orolbai
UFC 308 BET: Orolbai/Rebecki Fight Does Not Go The Distance (-110), Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1
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Abus Magomedov (-155) vs Brunno “The Hulk” Ferreira (+130)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-105) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-125)
Abus Magomedov came into the UFC as an accomplished martial artist. He had wins in both PFL and KSW. He won his first UFC fight via KO in just 19 seconds but was quickly humbled when he took a massive step up in competition to fave Sean Strickland. He gassed out and got knocked out in the second round. He then fought Caio Borralho, who was able to dominate and win a unanimous decision. Magomedov did right the ship against the veteran Warlley Alves to get back in the win column, but he was a -300 favorite in that fight. He also implemented wrestling, landing six takedowns after only securing one in his previous three trips into the cage in the UFC.
Brunno Ferreira’s nickname of “The Hulk” is perhaps the most descriptive in the UFC. He is short, stocky, and ripped… all he needs is the jean shorts and green skin. He is often the shorter fighter in the cage, but at 5’10”, he is not too diminutive. He has a six-inch reach disadvantage in this fight, but that is par for the course. He has had the shorter limbs every time he has entered the cage. He also fights with Hulk rage and tries to smash his opponents, which is usually effective. He is 3-1 in the UFC. All three wins are via first-round finish. He lost a short-notice fight to Nursulton Ruziboev, but I will attribute that one more to a strange circumstance than anything else.
I cannot back Abus Magomedov in this fight. I think he is going to be overwhelmed by the aggression and power of Ferreira.
FIGHT WINNER: Brunno Ferreira
UFC 308 BET: Brunno Ferreira (+130) vs Magomedov, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.3
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Kennedy “African Savage” Nzechukwu (-750) vs Chris “Huggy Bear” Barnett (+525)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-115) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-115)
Kennedy Nzechukwu is one of the toughest guys in the light heavyweight division. But this is a heavyweight fight… he has range, a chin, and power, but that pretty much rounds out his skillset. Chris Barnett is a veteran mixed martial artist who has fought in the UFC and had professional boxing, kickboxing, bare-knuckle boxing, and even grappling matches. If it’s a combat sport, the 5’9” 265-pounder has probably participated in it. He is also one of the toughest opponents to prepare for because despite being among the shortest heavyweights to enter the UFC cage, he is also one of the more unique strikers (see his spinning backkick KO of Gian Villante). Additionally, he has cardio for days despite having one of the more unique “power bellies” in the division.
I don’t trust Kennedy Nzechukwu facing heavyweight power. His chin was one of his greatest attributes at light heavyweight, but he wore it out and was knocked out in two fights after winning two fights strictly because his chin weathered the storm versus strikers Carlos Ulberg and Danilo Marques. He does have power, though, and Barnett is not without flaws. Giving up eight inches in height means his neck is there for the taking with guillotines. His crazy style means that he often leaves himself exposed and has been knocked out in lesser organizations.
All that is to say… this price is out of whack. Not only is Barnett a tough opponent to prepare for, this is a short-notice replacement fight after both fighter’s original opponents withdrew.
Fight Winner: Chris Barnett
UFC 308 BET: Chris Barnett (+525) vs Nzechukwu, Risk 1 Unit to Win 5.25
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Farid “Ferocious” Basharat (-750) vs Victor “Striker” Hugo (+525)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-250) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+190)
Farid Basharat has held onto his 12-0 record and hasn’t really been challenged all that much along the way. He is 3-0 in the UFC, with one win inside the distance. Most of the time, he is a position over submission fighter, but he has occasionally pulled out the submission skills when opponents get too lax. Victor Hugo is 1-0 in the UFC after winning his debut fight via decision in April. He is very experienced overall and has a 25-4 record with 17 finishes. He only won on the judges’ scorecards, which is interesting because this fight projects to go deep into the Arabian night. It should also be noted that he is on a 14-fight win streak.
This line is far too large to bet on Basharat, but I am not comfortable enough with Hugo’s strength of schedule to financially back him.
FIGHT WINNER: Farid Basharat
UFC 308 BET: Pass
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Ismail Naurdiev (-170) vs Bruno “Blindado” Silva (+142)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+110) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-140)
Ismail Naurdiev is getting a chance to return to the UFC after a 4-3 stint on the regional scene. He went 2-2 in the UFC and pushed Sean Brady to the final bell back in 2020. I do not love this price and think he is more of a “never was” than a “has been.” That said, his opponent, Bruno Silva, is consistently in the weirdest and most awkward fights you will ever see. Silva is 4-5 in the UFC but 1-5 in his last six fights. He made his name in the organization as a hungry striker who was finishing guys early and often. Still, after losing a decision to current light heavyweight champ Alex Pereira, he lost some of his fire. However, the exception was against Brad Tavares in April 2023. He won via KO in the first round versus a guy who is nearly impossible to get out of the cage. He also was perhaps robbed in his fight versus Chris Weidman in March of this year. Weidman repeatedly eye-poked, but the judge did not take sufficient action, and ultimately, Silva lost via technical decision.
I think that this is 100% the spot for the old Bruno Silva to return. Naurdiev is not elite and ripe to lose striking exchanges
FIGHT WINNER: Bruno Silva
UFC 308 BET: Bruno Silva (+142), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.42
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Rinat “Gladiator” Fakhretdinov (-230) vs Carlos “The Lion” Leal (+190)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-238) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+180)
Rinat Fakhretdinov is a dominant fighter with an excellent record 23-2-1 record. He is undefeated in the UFC at 4-0-1 and has shown the ability to fight with a lead. No one has been able to edge ahead at virtually any point he has been in the cage, save for Nicholas Dalby, showing life late in a fight that was all but decided. Fakhretdinov is a grapple-first fighter and probably needs a few more finishes on his UFC record if he wants to start hearing his name mentioned for higher-profile opponents.
Carlos Leal is making his UFC debut, but he is a veteran of numerous solid mixed martial arts organizations. He is 5-2 in PFL, 3-0 in LFA, and 1-0 in Bellator, which means he is not your average debutant. That said, he has struggled with fighters who can manhandle him in the past, and Fakhretdinov is precisely that type of opponent.
FIGHT WINNER: Rinat Fakhretdinov
UFC 308 BET: Pass
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UFC 308 BEST BETS RECAP
– Max Holloway (+225) vs Topuria, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.25
– Robert Whittaker (+190) vs Chimaev, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.9
– Parlay: Lerone Murphy/Magomed Ankalaev (-133), Risk 1.33 Units to Win 1
– Orolbai/Rebecki Fight Does Not Go The Distance (-110), Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1
– Brunno Ferreira (+130) vs Magomedov, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.3
– Chris Barnett (+525) vs Nzechukwu, Risk 1 Unit to Win 5.25
– Bruno Silva (+142), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.42
