UFC 309 Predictions for Jones vs. Miocic:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC 309 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 5-1 (+8.6 Units, 125.18% ROI)
Article History: 100-153 (-31.49 Units, -11.25% ROI)
Since 2020: 652-617 (+185.66 Units, 10.88% ROI)
PICK EM HISTORY
Last Week: 10-1 (90.91%)
Article History: 222-166 (57.22%)
Jon “Bones” Jones “-625” vs Stipe Miocic (+455)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+110) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-140)
There isn’t a debate; Jon Jones is the best ever to do it when it comes to mixed martial arts. He is 27-1, 1 NC as a pro, with the one loss coming due to illegal 12-6 elbows (which are now legal). The no contest was a TKO victory that was overturned due to a semi-controversial failed drug test. He has had 22 fights in the UFC, 15 of which have had a belt on the line, and he has had his hand raised every time. He is the king of light heavyweight, and moved to heavyweight last March. He took on the champ Cyril Gane and dispatched him with a submission in the first round. Jones is an equal-opportunity finisher and is not afraid to unleash strikes standing or on the ground. He also has the patience and persistence to draw out decision victories versus opponents he deems dangerous.
Statistically, Jones fits the profile of an elite Champion. He lands nearly 60% of his significant strikes thrown while avoiding 64% of those coming back his way. He has only been taken down twice in his long UFC career and overall boasts a 95% takedown defense rate. He lands about two takedowns of his own per 15 minutes in the cage, and he attempts a submission about once every other fight. Additionally, he has been awarded nine fight performance bonuses. His resume is immaculate and the stats back it up.
Jon Jones is the best fighter to enter the octagon, but Stipe Miocic is the best heavyweight champion we have ever seen. He is 20-4 as a professional fighter and 14-4 in the UFC. He has fought for the strap eight times and has a 6-2 record in title fights with the losses coming to legendary champions Francis Ngannou and Daniel Cormier (career 1-1 vs Ngannou, 2-1 vs Cormier). On his way up, he was mostly an afterthought, but he put together some highlight finishes and was able to get a second shot at Fabricio Werdum as a +165 underdog and won via first-round knockout. He knocked out Alistair Overeem and Junior dos Santos in his first two title defenses before facing Ngannou as a dog and winnng via decision. He fought a trilogy with Daniel Cormier. In his rematch with Ngannou in March of 2021, he was knocked out in the second round and has not fought since.
Overall, Miocic is a very crisp boxer and his hand speed has always stuck out in a division full of plodders. He was also a collegiate wrestler and had a higher base in that discipline than nearly every opponent he had faced. On paper, he actually lands .43 significant strikes per minute MORE than Jon Jones, but his accuracy is slightly worse, and he gets hit significantly more often. Additionally, Miocic has an impressive 80-inch reach, but Jon Jones is a freak at 84”. Both fighters are 6’4”, and if this fight reaches the ground, I expect Jones to have an advantage.
This is a super fight by every definition of the word. But you really have to squint to ignore the flaws. Stipe Miocic is 42 years old and has not fought since being knocked out in 2021. He looks good, and heavyweights have found success deep into their 40s in the past, but Jon Jones is a different animal. He actually looks slightly leaner than when he fought Cyril Gane. On the scales, Jones came in at 237 pounds, Miocic 11 pounds heavier at 248. I do not expect the weight to be a factor unless we see a lot of wrestling.
I cannot go against Jon Jones. He always finds a way to win. Miocic will probably surprise him early with his speed and accuracy with strikes. But Jones is a master at downloading information and adjusting his game plan on the fly. I think he will be able to find a hole and exploit it, and ultimately defend his heavyweight title.
FIGHT WINNER: Jon Jones
UFC 309 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below
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Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (-245) vs Michael “Iron” Chandler (+200)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-105) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-125)
Charles Oliveira is the greatest finisher in UFC history and the organization’s undisputed submission king. He is 22-10, with 1 No Contest in his illustrious UFC career. Sixteen victories have come via submission, and another four have come via strikes. Including a knockout victory versus Michael Chandler when they fought for the lightweight belt in May 2021. Chandler is not a crisp striker, but he is powerful, and he uses his length and awkwardness to set up surprising strikes that are capable of grounding opponents. And once things are on the ground, it is not a matter of if, but when Oliviera will find the finish. He is not only a top-position grappler, he is dangerous from the guard, with only two opponents able to truly stifle him on the ground, current Champion Islam Makhachev, and future title contender Armen Tsarukyan.
Michael Chandler is a fan favorite. He was one of the most popular champions in the Bellator lightweight division and had notable wins over Patricky Pitbull, Benson Henderson, and Brent Primus before finally getting the call to come over to the UFC. He wasted no time making an impression with a first-round KO victory over Dan Hooker. He then came out swinging against Oliveira in his encore but ultimately didn’t succeed in ending the fight early and was finished. Overall, he is 2-3 in the organization, with his only other victory coming against the over-the-hill Tony Ferguson. Chandler looks good in the cage early but has struggled with getting overzealous and paying the price when he lets his defense down. It is also notable that Chandler is now 38 years old and waited a very long time for a Conor McGregor fight that is yet to materialize. We last saw him in the cage against Dustin Poirier in November 2022, where he lost via submission.
Statistically, Oliveira is the more accurate striker but less active, and Chandler has much worse defense. It goes without saying that Oliveira has a supreme advantage if this fight gets to the ground because he is dangerous from all positions. This is a scheduled five-round fight, but I would be very surprised if we get to the championship rounds. Both of these men have made a habit of leaving it all in the cage. Five of Oliveira’s last six fights have finished inside the distance. Chandler has only seen the judges scorecards once in his last eight bouts.
FIGHT WINNER: Charles Oliveira
UFC 309 BEST BET: Parlay: Oliveira/Chandler Round 4 Does Not Start, Jon Jones Wins Inside The Distance vs Miocic (-128), Risk 1.28 Units to Win 1
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Bo Nickal (-1350) vs Paul “Bearjew” Craig (+800)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+130) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-166)
Bo Nickal has been given the star treatment since coming onto the UFC’s radar. He is a well-pedigreed collegiate wrestler who went on Contender Series as a 1-0 MMA pro, won via rear naked choke about a minute into the first round. He was given a second Contender Series fight to help him get up to speed before becoming a full-fledged member of the UFC’s middleweight roster. He won that second fight via triangle choke in 52 seconds. He has performed similarly well on the big stage and is already a fan favorite. A 6-0 record with six fast finishes will do that. As impressive as his record is, there are still serious questions about his true level. He has fought the absolute dregs of the roster, The three fighters have a combined UFC record of 6-14, 1 NC. None of them are particularly adept strikers, which plays into Nickal’s favor because that is the least developed portion of his game.
Paul Craig is a veteran who came down to middleweight from the UFC’s light heavyweight division three fights ago. As an aging fighter, he didn’t waste any time fighting high-level competition. As such, he is 1-2 in his last three fights. His weakness is, has been, and will always be his striking; however, he is one of the more lethal submission grapplers in the organization. Thirteen of his 17 professional victories have come via submission, and another four have come via KO. He will welcome this fight going to the ground, but I am not sure that is going to be in his best interest, considering Nickal’s pedigree and ability to avoid dangerous positions with top control.
Paul Craig lands just 2.45 significant strikes per minute in the cage, but Bo Nickal is near the bottom of the entire organization at 1.64. Neither guy gets hit much either because grappling is such a large part of their game, but Nickal’s number is absolutely ludicrous, just absorbing 0.5 significant strikes per minute.
Overall, I think Paul Craig’s best chance is to catch Bo Nickal in a submission if he gets overly confident on the ground, but I am not banking on that. I do not think he will find a home for his hands while standing. Yet, this fight will be interesting and we should see some unique positions on the ground.
FIGHT WINNER: Bo Nickal
UFC 309 BEST BET: Pass
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Karine “Killer’ Silva (-298) vs Viviane “Vivi” Araujo (+240)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-298) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+220)
Karine Silva is a women’s flyweight fighter whose stock ticker continues to rise. She is 4-0 in the UFC, with three submission victories and another in Contender Series. Most recently, she took on Ariane Lipski and won via unanimous decision in a fight that she was able to completely control, despite the opponent being the biggest striking test of her career. She landed five takedowns in the bout, and she has landed at least one takedown in all of her fights under the UFC banner. However, her striking numbers are poor, with a 35% accuracy rate and landing less than three significant strikes per round total. If she can’t get the fight to the ground there are some serious concerns about her ability to get her hand raised.
Viviane Araujo is a 37-year-old UFC veteran with a 6-5 record in the organization. She has fought a very tough schedule and is just 1-3 in her last four fights. She generally finds a way to draw out fights, with just one knockout victory in the UFC. Her other ten fights went to the judges’ scorecards. She is a tough out for anyone, but she does not have any particularly overwhelming traits or attributes in the cage. That said, she has distinct advantages with her offensive striking. Her defensive metrics are not quite as good as Silva’s, but that will likely not be a factor, unless Silva has turned a corner with her hands. Additionally, Araujo has a career takedown defense rate of 78%, which could lead to frustration for Silva, who wants to fight with a grappling-heavy style.
FIGHT WINNER: Viviane Araujo
UFC 309 BEST BET: Viviane Araujo to win via Decision (+300) vs Silva, Risk 1 Unit to Win 3
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Mauricio “One Shot” Ruffy (-900) vs James “Goku” Llontop (+600)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+120)
Mauricio Ruffy is another surging star coming out of the Fighting Nerds Gym. All of these guys are absolute dogs, and they all have absolutely horrible intentions. He debuted in Contender Series, fighting up a weight class against ONE veteran Raimond Magomedaliev and was able to find a third-round knockout victory. He followed that up with a vicious TKO victory over UFC veteran Jamie Mullarkey. Overall, he is 10-1 as a professional. All ten victories have come via knockout. His opponent in this fight, James Llontop, is not ready for the big leagues. He missed weight in his UFC debut versus Chris Padilla and was submitted in the first round as a -450 favorite. He followed that up with a split decision loss versus Viacheslav Borshchev, who had a losing record in the UFC. He couldn’t make weight for this fight versus Ruffy, so it was set at a catchweight of 165. He also missed that weight and hit the scales at 166.2. I believe that Llontop is in for a world of hurt, given the level of striker that will be standing across the cage. Llontop is still relatively young at 25 and has never been knocked out. But he took damage against Borschev a few short months ago in August. Ruffy is going to test that chin.
FIGHT WINNER: Mauricio Ruffy
UFC 309 BEST BET: Mauricio Ruffy to win via Knockout (-150) vs Llontop, Risk 1.5 Units to Win 1
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Jonathan “Dragon” Martinez (+102) vs Marcus “The Maniac” McGhee (-122)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+124)
Jonathan Martinez is an absolute pro and has some of the best stand-up striking in the UFC’s bantamweight division. He is a clean striker who is defensively sound. He has won six of his last seven fights in the UFC, and three of those victories have come as a betting underdog. Overall, he is 10-4 in the organization, with four wins via KO and six via decision. Compared to Jonathan Martinez, Marcus McGhee is an absolute UFC newbie with just a 3-0 record in the organization (9-1 overall). That said, he has left no doubt in his three UFC victories—all the fights ending in the first two rounds and none being close in any meaningful way. He debuted as a +150 underdog vs. Journey Newson and earned his first career submission victory. He was a solid favorite of -250 or greater in his next two fights and left little doubt.
Martinez is one of the most technical fighters in the division. McGhee is already one of the most explosive. I love the upstart at this reduced price after DraftKings opened him as -148 favorite. Maybe he gets humbled in this spot, but I love his trajectory. In three consecutive UFC fights, his offensive and defensive striking has shown up in a major way, and he has shown to be capable as a grappler. Physically, he has a chance to overpower Martinez
FIGHT WINNER: Marcus McGhee
UFC 309 BEST BET: Marcus McGhee (-122) vs Martinez, Risk 1.22 Units to Win 1
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Chris “The All-American” Weidman (-108) vs Eryk “Ya Boi” Anders (-112)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-215) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+165)
It is sad to say, but Chris Weidman is four fights removed from being four fights removed from his prime (and calling eight fights ago his prime is probably still generous). At his best, he was a dominating wrestler who had fight-ending strikes in his hands that forced his opponents to pick their poison. Several knee and leg injuries have derailed his career. Now, at age 40, he is nearly robotic out there. He just doesn’t have the mobility needed to fight at a high level. In March, he fought Bruno Silva in New Jersey, and he was able to get a technical decision. It was perhaps the most bush league result of the year, considering he repeatedly eye-poked his opponent to cause the stoppage but was not properly penalized. Weidman is 1-2 since 2021, and outside of nostalgia, it is hard to generate any sort of excitement to watch Weidman fight.
Eryk Anders isn’t quite as old and broken as Weidman, but at age 37, he is not far off. Overall, he is 8-8, with 1 NC in the UFC. Early in his career, his raw power and explosiveness were an asset. In his more recent fights, he has struggled to unleash his fury. Overall, he is adequate in most areas needed to be a pro fighter, but he does not have anything that sets him apart in this era of his career. I fully expect this to be the most boring fight of the night, but I hope I am wrong.
FIGHT WINNER: Chris Weidman
UFC 309 BEST BET: Pass
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Jim “A-10” Miller (+160) vs Damon “The Leech” Jackson (-192)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+124)
Jim Miller has aged and perhaps he is a step slow on his feet, but the pace with which he wants to fight has not diminished, even at age 41. He is 5-2 in his last seven fights dating back to October 2021. All five of his wins have come inside the distance (3 KO). Even in his defeats versus Bobby Green and Alexander Hernandez, Miller was unafraid to mix it up and gave it his all until the end. He did take a lot of damage in the decision loss to Bobby Green in April of this year after eating 186 significant strikes. Green’s speed was just too much. But he won’t have that problem in this fight as Damon Jackson grades below average in the striking department. Miller is 26-17 in the UFC, with 12 victories coming via submission.
Damon Jackson is a specialist. He strikes just enough to set up an entry. Once distance is closed, he tries to get the fight to the ground as fast as possible, where he can unleash his slick grappling game. He has had some trouble lately enacting his game plan and is just 1-3 since 2023. He struggles with strikers who have takedown defense. Additionally, he has a three-inch height advantage on Miller, though both fighters have a 71” reach. Both guys have similar offensive striking metrics, but Jim Miller is far superior defensively. What occurs on the ground will be a total wild card. Jackson is also 36, so he is not quite as spry as he once was.
FIGHT WINNER: Jim MIller
UFC 309 BEST BET: Jim Miller (+160) vs Jackson, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.6
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Roberto “El Charro Negro” Romero (+750) vs David “Silent Assassin” Onama (-1200)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-135) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+105)
Roberto Romero is perhaps both the most lucky and unlucky fighter on this card. He is getting a shot to fight on a UFC pay-per-view card with a resume that probably doesn’t warrant the spot. Unfortunately, this massive opportunity comes against one of the more powerful and fight-tested featherweights in David Onama. Romero has never fought in a major organization, or Contender Series, instead he has cut his teeth in Combate Global, which is a North American regional organization that has sent a few fighters to the UFC. Still, the overall quality is definitely several steps below even the current bastardized version of Bellator. Overall, he is 8-3-1 with five wins inside the distance. He has been knocked out once, and his other two losses have come via decision. There is no one on his resume that leads me to believe he is ready for what David Onama will throw at him.
Onama is 4-2 in the UFC and riding a two-fight win streak. He missed weight in April when he fought Jonathan Pearce, but he was able to gut out a tough decision. He allegedly had some health issues leading up to that fight, which contributed to the weight miss. I believe him, and his gutty performance versus the gritty Jonathan Pearce impressed me. That was the first weight miss of his career, and he looked good on the scale Friday ahead of this fight. Onama is 12-2 as a pro with 11 wins inside the distance. This fight is setting up for another quick night at the office.
FIGHT WINNER: David Onama
UFC 309 BEST BET: Pass
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Marcin “Tybur” Tybura (-142) vs Jhonata Diniz (+120)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+114)
Marcin Tybura is a staple of the UFC’s heavyweight division, having already made the walk to the octagon 20 times. He is 12-8 in the organization, but since 2020 he is 8-3. He is a massive heavyweight with power, but he also has a grappling game that has befuddled many opponents. Four of his UFC wins have come via knockout, one via submission, and seven via decision. If it isn’t apparent, he does not rush in the cage and finds his spots to ground opponents, and more often than not, the opponent only gets back up when the round ends or the ref steps in. That said, he has been knocked out four times and has struggled with opponents who have top-notch striking.
Jhonata Diniz is almost purely a striker. He is a former kickboxer who has made the jump into mixed martial arts. So far so good on his journey, as he is 8-0 with seven knockouts. He is 2-0 in the UFC, with a win via knockout. Like most kickboxers, his greatest weakness is grappling, and in his UFC debut, Austen Lane was able to take the fight to the ground and ride out the first round before Diniz landed the kill shot in the second round. Diniz showed improved grappling in his encore fight versus Karl Williams, holding his more experienced opponent to 2/5 on takedown attempts and avoiding any meaningful damage while on the ground. He doubled up Williams’ in the striking department and was the much more accurate puncher.
I want to give Tybura the edge due to his experience. But the anti-grappling gains Diniz showed in his last fight lead me to believe he has a chance to keep this thing standing. But also, if he does get taken down, Tybura is a legitimate finishing threat.
FIGHT WINNER: Jhonata Diniz
UFC 309 BEST BET: Tybura/Diniz Fight Doesn’t Start Round 3 (-160), Risk 1.6 Units to Win 1
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Mickey Gall (-142) vs Ramiz Brahimaj (+120)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-180) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+210)
Who the hell is Mickey Gall to be a favorite versus an opponent with legitimate UFC experience? But who the hell wants to bet on the one trick pony, Ramiz Brahimaj? Maybe that was a bit harsh, but this is an interesting fight because even in defeat, Mickey Gall showed real progress in his MMA journey when he made it to a decision as a +325 underdog versus Bassil Hafez. His striking is still a weakness, and his cardio still looked like it could be better. He is 1-4 in his last five fights dating back to 2020, with the lone win coming versus Jordan Williams, who left the organization with an 0-3 record. Gall has never won via KO, and all but one of his UFC wins have come via submission.
Ramiz Brahimaj is also a specialist. He is 2-3 in the UFC, with both wins coming via submission. The combined record of his two UFC opponents is 1-4 in the organization. He will want to make this a grappling match, and Gall will oblige. If this turns into a grappling match, Brahimaj will have the superior gas tank, and Gall may fold.
FIGHT WINNER: Ramiz Brahimaj
UFC 309 BEST BET: Pass
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Oban “The Welsh Gangster” Elliott (-285) vs Bassil “The Habibi” Hafez (+230)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-280) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+210)
Oban Elliott is 2-0 in the UFC, with a win as a massive favorite versus Val Woodburn and as a small underdog versus Preston Parsons. Both fights went the distance, and in both fights, he could outstrike his opponents while staying out of trouble in grappling exchanges. Woodburn landed two takedowns in the debut, but Elliott denied eight of Parsons’ nine attempts to take the fight to the floor in the follow-up. These betting odds assume that Elliott’s takedown defense will hold up at the level it did in his second fight. Overall, he can be classified as a decision fighter, with his last six victories coming on the judges’ scorecards. That said, he is 11-2 at just 26 years old, so that may be why many are bullish on this product of Wales.
Bassil Hafez quickly became a fan favorite when he fought Jack Della Maddalena on short notice, pushing the star to a split decision. He followed that up with a win versus Mickey Gall, which I consider an underwhelming performance. His striking defense was suspect, allowing Gall to land 58% of his strikes, amounting to 83 in all, and he was also taken down in the fight. He answered Gall’s accuracy with volume and landed 95, but at just a 47% rate, which is low considering Gall is not exactly known to win striking exchanges. Additionally, I am not a fan of The Habibi’s pre-UFC strength of schedule.
FIGHT WINNER: Oban Elliott
UFC 309 BEST BET: Oban Elliott to win via Decision (-135) vs Hafez, Risk 1.35 Units to Win 1
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Veronica Hardy (-125) vs Eduarda “Ronda” Moura (+105)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-330) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+240)
Veronica Hardy was on her way to being NFL (not for long) in the UFC after starting her career with a 1-4 record. But when her back was against the wall, she elevated and is now on a three-fight win streak, with two of those fights as an underdog (+330 and +160). The turnaround has been impressive and can be attributed to upticks in striking accuracy, striking defense, and takedown defense. In short, she turned a corner and got better all around, and she is still just 29 years old. She is a veteran and has shown the fight IQ that separates fighters who last in the organization from those who are out in just a few fights. It doesn’t always have to be picture-perfect and pretty, and she is not afraid to grind her way to victory.
Eduarda Mora is still learning what it means to be a UFC pro. She is 1-1 in the UFC, but both fights were down a weight class at strawweight, and she missed weight in both bouts. Now, she has to face a hardened veteran to kick off one of the most hyped cards of the year. She can change the narrative of her UFC story, or she can fade away. She attempted 26 takedowns in her loss to Denise Gomes and was successful on just five. She was generally ineffective in the ground exchanges. She will not find takedowns easily in this fight, considering Hardy has shown improvement in this area versus bigger and stronger opponents.
FIGHT WINNER: Veronica Hardy
UFC 309 BEST BET: Veronica Hardy (-125) vs Moura, Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
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UFC 309 BEST BEST BETS RECAP:
– Parlay: Oliveira/Chandler Round 4 Does Not Start, Jon Jones Wins Inside The Distance vs Miocic (-128), Risk 1.28 Units to Win 1
– Viviane Araujo to win via Decision (+300) vs Silva, Risk 1 Unit to Win 3
– Mauricio Ruffy to win via Knockout (-150) vs Llontop, Risk 1.5 Units to Win 1
– Marcus McGhee (-122) vs Martinez, Risk 1.22 Units to Win 1
– Jim Miller (+160) vs Jackson, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.6
– Tybura/Diniz Fight Doesn’t Start Round 3 (-160), Risk 1.6 Units to Win 1
– Oban Elliott to win via Decision (-135) vs Hafez, Risk 1.35 Units to Win 1
