UFC 309 Predictions:
Welcome to this week’s UFC 309 fight card from Madison Square Garden in New York City. The Garden will be packed with fight enthusiasts who will witness 12 scheduled bouts, six of which feature destroyers who weigh 170 pounds and greater. Finish rates for fighters 170 pounds and larger are far greater than those fights featuring slighter combatants weighing 155 pounds and below.
UFC 309 has 11 athletes that are 35 years old and older on this slate. Fighters with five-plus years of youth advantage earn victory at a rate of 55-to-56 percent, and that rate grows the more pronounced the youth advantage grows.
Of course, the main event of UFC 309 is Jones vs. Miocic, where two mature yet equipped mixed martial artists compete for Heavyweight GOAT’ status.
Last week, two releases were offered in an amended digital article as Cody Garbrandt ‘s fight was cancelled. Both half-unit underdogs missed, resulting in a full unit of loss to 2024 profitability.
Digital results stand 27-23 +8.65u on the year.
Jon Jones -675 vs. Stipe Miocic +550
Heavyweight (265 pounds) title
Miocic is a humble firefighter from Cleveland by day and one of the most decorated UFC heavyweight athletes of all time by night and weekend.
Miocic did lose his title to Francis Ngannou in 2021, but prior to that he defeated Daniel Cormier twice in their trilogy and laid waste to the who’s who of the division leading up to that Ngannou rematch.
Currently, the betting market doesn’t seem to recognize Miocic’s career accomplishments. It could be because that rematch loss to Ngannou is the last impression received and/or who Miocic is fighting.
In the cage, Miocic is a full-grown, tough, durable, heavyweight destroyer complete with deft boxing and lethal kicking. As a bonus, he’s a complete wrestler with a purple belt in BJJ.
Miocic is the perfect combination of athleticism, wrestling base, striking acumen, toughness, and experience, all wrapped into a legitimate 240 pounds of coiled aggression.
He’s been in the cage with the absolute elite of the division over the last 15 years, so it’s easy to understand that he has little fear of his Saturday showdown with ‘Bones.’
Jones arrives the pound-for-pound GOAT in the UFC by Dana White’s standards, and I must agree.
Jones is an athletic freak, a world-class wrestling talent, and a developed lethal striker whose effectiveness is set up by his wrestling advances.
We last saw Jones in March of 2023, barely breaking a sweat against an overmatched Cyril Gane. Since then, Jones has been healing and preparing for this fight and he’s taking Miocic more seriously than the betting market is.
Miocic, now 41, faces a 37-year-old Jones who, in my judgment, is every bit as mixed martial arts dangerous as he has ever been.
Jones’ unique physical characteristics, the fact he’s taken ample time to prepare for the heavyweight division, coupled with his wrestling prowess/overt aggression, make him a living, breathing fighting machine.
It’s Stipe’s age and Jones’ larger-than-life aura affecting most fans’ handicapping regarding this fight. I must say that I give Miocic a better chance to compete in this fight than the current pricing.
At the end of the day, this fight will solidify that Jones has earned the status of ‘all-time pound-for-pound GOAT’ in MMA.
I handicap Jones to possess an advantage in this fight, but it may take him longer than a round plus to solve Stipe.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Over -140, but I have seen some 2.5 Under -145 in the market.
Charles Oliveira -265 vs. Michael Chandler +220
Lightweight (155 pounds) co-main event
We get a rematch AND a five-round rematch at that!
In their first fight in 2021, Charles Oliveira finished Michael Chandler early in the second round. He closed -125 to Chandler’s +105 in that bout.
In 2024, he comes -198 at open against Michael Chandler, who opened +165 for this one.
Oliveira’s been bet to a current price of -250/-260 while Chandler can be had for +220. The total here is 1.5 Rds Under -165.
Chandler is now 38 years old and will be cutting weight substantially to get back to 155 pounds. after spending more than a year believing he would be fighting Conor McGregor at 170 pounds.
He gives up three years of age, two inches of height, and three inches of arm reach to Oliveira, who has toiled against every form of world-class mixed martial artist between two divisions.
The question that needs to be posed for this fight is the following: What could have changed between these two since 2021?
To me, Chandler, who won the first round of their fight in 2021, has one way to win this fight, and that’s to seek and destroy. He must knock Oliveira out.
Meanwhile, Oliveira needs to weather that frenetic first four to five minutes of Chandler’s freakish power output again in this fight. After the first round, Oliveira will be in a better position to systematically break Chandler down as his quickness, power, and aggression wane.
I believe Oliveira earns victory again.
Total in this fight 1.5 Rds Under -165
Favorites stand 322-128-13 this year in the UFC.
69% is exceedingly high, as yearly rates are normally around 62% to 63%. I mention this because I am going to ride the wave and use a parlay of favorites for this week’s digital release.
Karine Silva -265 is in a favorable position despite taking a sizable step up in competition against fellow Brazilian flyweight Viviane Araujo. Silva’s price, however, is prohibiting me from investing in her straight up.
So, I’ll employ a three-fighter parlay and slash the Silva price from -265 to -145 with the understanding that all three positions must win.
Three Fighter Parlay:
Bo Nickal -1100 in his fight against Paul Craig.
Mauricio Ruffy -850 in his bout against James Liontop.
Karine Silva -265 in her fight against Araujo.
1.47u returns 1.0u
Access my final releases on the ‘Bout Business Podcast on Friday late a.m. PT only at GambLou.com.
Enjoy the fights, and thank you for reading.
