UFC 313 Predictions Pereira vs. Ankalaev:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC 313 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
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2025: 19-27 (-5.48 Units, -10.30% ROI)
Since 2020: 689-658 (+188.79 Units, 10.83% ROI)
PICK EM HISTORY
Last Week: 7-3 (70%)
2025: 55-28-1 (66.27%)
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*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Alex “Poatan” Pereira (-118) vs Magomed Ankalaev (-102)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+124)
Light Heavyweight Championship Bout
Alex Pereira has only been in the UFC since November of 2021. Since then he has a 9-1 record. Six of these bouts have been for a belt, and he has won five times (all via knockout). He was brought into the UFC as a gimmick, a potential money fight for Israel Adesanya, who needed to settle an old kickboxing score. Pereira split the series with Adesanya, moved up to the light heavyweight division, and became the biggest star in the sport. He is facing off against a challenger who has been linked to Pereira since he first won the light heavyweight belt in November of 2023.
Many are calling this Pereira’s toughest challenge yet because Magomed Ankalaev possesses grappling skills that could be problematic for the striking veteran. Training with Glover Teixeira has improved Pereira’s grappling awareness, and he has technically been awarded a black belt. Just don’t expect him to show up at ADCC anytime soon and compete for a world title. But his takedown defense rate of 70% is legitimate, even if he hasn’t faced a takedown attempt since he first faced off against Jiri Prochazka. Grappling ability, or inability aside, closing the distance is not something that is easy to do, and Pereira’s striking offense is his best grappling defense. He has landed 5.46 significant strikes per minute over the course of his UFC career at a 63% accuracy rate—eye-popping stats considering seven of his UFC fights have been against men who have worn a UFC belt. And his power cannot be undervalued. He doesn’t just throw to touch his opponents. He has won via KO in 70% of his UFC fights and has the most devastating left hook in the sport. Additionally, he avoids 55% of the strikes coming back his way, a number that is impressive when you look at the quality of strikers he has faced.
Magomed Ankalaev has taken the scenic route to this championship bout. As a pro mixed martial artist, he has a 20-1-1, 1 No Contest record (11-1-1, 1 in UFC). He is unbeaten since his UFC debut against Paul Craig, a fight in which he lost via triangle choke in the literal last second of the third round, but since that moment, he has gone on a 13-fight unbeaten streak. He is an extremely crisp boxer with technical defense. He moves well in the cage and chooses his shots wisely. He also can wrestle and has landed .92 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage while averaging .25 takedown attempts per minute (1.25 takedown attempts per round). Many expect him to employ a takedown-heavy approach in this fight, which is likely his best path to victory. I believe the grappling advantage narrative has perhaps gotten a bit overblown. He should be able to wrestle better than Pereira, but I do not believe Ankalaev’s ground game is as overwhelming as it is made out to be. He has not attempted a takedown in his last three completed fights. The last time he committed to wrestling was against Jan Blachowicz, a fight in which he landed just two takedowns in ten attempts over five rounds. This fight is also worth highlighting because it was Ankalaev’s first shot at a belt. It was for the interim light heavyweight title, and he fought to a draw versus an over-the-hill champion. He started that fight too slow and made up for it with a 10-8 round in the fifth that saved him from earning his second UFC loss.
I have doubted Alex Pereira in the past, but not the recent past. What he has is different: power, fight IQ, self-belief, and a pretty ridiculous chin, given the amount of damage he has taken as both a kickboxer and MMA fighter. Ankalaev fights by the book. Clean, technical, smart. But to me, he may lack the star power that fans and the organization desire. He also choked in the two biggest fights of his UFC (his debut in which he literally got choked in the last second) and his interim title shot versus Jan Blachowicz, where he was a -360 favorite.
Ankalaev has definitely put together solid tape and has found his way to getting his hand raised at a ridiculous rate. But I don’t think his strength of schedule touches what Pereira has done across the middleweight and light heavyweight divisions. I spoke to many smart people during this fight week, both offline and on the Just Win MMA podcast. The sharp consensus is that Ankalaev is worth a shot as a slight underdog. I just can’t get there.
Precision beats power, but in this case, Pereira has both precision and power advantages. I expect Ankalaev’s speed to take some time to adjust to for the champ, but he has made these adjustments before. And I fully expect Ankalaev to test Pereira’s takedown defense. Even if he gets a takedown early, I am not worried. Every round starts on the feet, and Ankalaev is more of an opportunistic finisher versus lesser opponents than a one-punch flatline threat. All of his knockout victories in the UFC have come as a -210 favorite or greater, and he has gone to decision in five of his last seven fights. Maybe his safe style is Pereira’s kryptonite, but my opinion is any minute in the cage with Pereira is a minute too long. Letting the veteran champion have time to read and adjust is a recipe for disaster.
FIGHT WINNER: Alex Pereira
UFC 313 BEST BET: Alex Pereira (-115, BetMGM) vs Magomed Ankalaev, Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
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Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje (+130) vs Rafael “Ataman” Fiziev (-155)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-130) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+100)
Lightweight Bout
Many fighters have catchy nicknames, but few deliver to the level of “The Highlight.” Gaethje is now 36 years old and has an 8-5 UFC Record. Six of his wins have come via KO, and all five of his losses have come via finish. He last was seen as one-half of one of my top fights from 2024, his last-second KO loss to Max Holloway at UFC 300. As someone lucky enough to be in attendance for that event as a member of the media, I will never forget the pace and grit both fighters employed for 24:59 seconds. That being said, that was far from Gaethje’s first time delivering on a major fight card. He has highlight knockouts of Dustin Poirier, Tony Ferguson, Donald Cerrone, Edson Barboza, and Michael Johnson.
Gaethje is an extremely active striker, landing 6.78 significant strikes per minute with 59% accuracy. He also possesses a high-level wrestling background but rarely employs it in the UFC cage. Outside of the power in his hands, he has some of the more devastating leg kicks in the division and few of his opponents walk out of the cage without a limp, regardless of who wins the fight. He first fought Rafael Fiziev at UFC 286 two years ago and landed 103 significant strikes (81 to the head) and won via majority decision (29-28, 28-28, 29-28). He didn’t lose a single judge’s scorecard.
Rafael Fiziev is 32 and coming off an 18-month layoff after a brutal leg injury in a bout versus Mateusz Gamrot. That was the first fight he took after his war with Justin Gaethje. Overall, he is 6-3 in the UFC and was on a six-fight win streak before losing to Gaethje. He has knockout victories over Rafael dos Anjos, Brad Riddell, and Renato Moicano. He is an excellent striker and has a 71.5-inch reach on his short 5’8” frame. The Kazakh fighter has a little grappling in his back pocket but has not employed it in any of his recent UFC fights. The first time these men fought it was relatively close, but the result was not in question.
Has Fiziev improved in the past 18 months? Is he ready for this fight on just a few weeks’ notice? (He stepped in after Dan Hooker had to pull out.) Was the damage sustained by Gaethje versus Max Holloway last April enough to drain his gas tank permanently? I do not think so. Fiziev has never reached the heights Gaethje has been at for the last several years of his UFC career. Taking the older fighter in a rematch can be a dangerous proposition. But I am not buying in on Fiziev in the paradoxical situation of a short-notice fight after a long break.
FIGHT WINNER: Justin Gaethje
UFC 313 BEST BET: Justin Gaethje (+135, BetMGM), vs Rafael Fiziev, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.35
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Jalin “The Tarantula” Turner (+110) vs Ignacio “La Jaula” Bahamondes (-130)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+145)
Lightweight Bout
Jalin Turner has taken a drastic fall when it comes to fight results in the past few years. From 2020 through 2022, he went on a five-fight win streak in which he finished all of his opponents. Since 2023 he is 1-3 with two split decision losses, and a TKO loss to Renato Moicano at UFC 300. The most recent loss really stings because he landed what should have been a knockout punch, but instead of following up, Turner put his hands in the air, assuming the fight was over. It wasn’t. Moicano recovered and turned the tables. That being said, his 1-3 is tough on the overall record, but he was very close to winning all of those fights—a few moments going a different way and he could have been set up for a title shot. He is tasked with facing an up-and-comer who has momentum of his own. Turner is an intriguing combatant because he has an outlier physique for the lightweight division. He is 6’3” and has a 75.5-inch reach. He uses his long limbs to generate ridiculous power. He also uses them to sink in submissions. All 14 of his professional MMA wins have come inside the distance. But his striking defense leaves a lot to be desired, and he is less than a precision striker, making up for accuracy shortcomings with volume. There are also concerns about his fight IQ. You can never be certain Turner will make the right decision in fight-defining moments.
Ignacio Bahamondes is 5-2 in the UFC and just 27 years old. He has won two fights in a row via knockout. He has not fought the level of opponent that Turner has faced, but he is working his way up the ranks and has seen a variety of styles in his short UFC career. At 6’2” and with a 75.5-inch reach, he is nearly the size of Turner. On paper, he has a lot going for him. He lands an impressive 7.17 significant strikes per minute and is defensively sound, avoiding 57% of the strikes thrown back his way. Overall, he is 16-5 with a 75% finish rate in his victories. I expect this to be an intriguing fight with tons of finishing potential. I like Bahamondes’ trajectory much more than Turner’s. However, his level of opponent has me apprehensive about making a bet on him as a favorite.
FIGHT WINNER: Ignacio Bahamondes
UFC 313 BEST BET: Pass
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Amanda “Amandinha” Lemos (+114) vs Iasmin Lucindo (-135)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-270) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+200)
Women’s Strawweight Bout
Amanda Lemos is another fighter tasked with facing a young up-and-comer in a division she was once at the top of. At 37, Lemos has seen almost everything this division can offer. She lost to Weilli Zhang via decision in a title fight a year and a half ago and has since defeated Mackenzie Dern via decision and lost to surging Virna Jandiroba via submission. She is 8-4 in the division with five finishes in a division known for decisions. Yet, most of her opponents have little trouble finding their target. She also is susceptible to the takedown and has, at times, been content to fight off her back and attempt halfhearted submissions instead of working to get back on her feet.
Iasmin Lucindo is a young star in this division. She is only 23 years old, 4-1 in the UFC, and on a four-fight win streak. Her stats are good, particularly when it comes to head strike defense, avoiding 77% of her opponent’s attempts. Additionally, she has never been knocked down in the organization and has also proven to be dominant from top control position. My only concern is her strength of schedule. Her toughest task was against Marina Rodriguez in October. She won via split decision as a -175 favorite. Her key to success in that fight was landing a takedown in all three rounds. My concern here is how she will adapt to the power Lemos possesses, which is a bit uncanny for a women’s strawweight fighter.
FIGHT WINNER: Amanda Lemos
UFC 313 BEST BET: Amanda Lemos (+125, Caesars), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.25
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King Green (+360) vs Mauricio “One Shot” Ruffy” (-470)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+135)
Lightweight Bout
This is King Green’s 50th professional fight, a very rare feat in a sport that churns and burns talent with devastating speed. Green is a 38-year-old fan favorite due to his aggressive striking style, open fighting stance, and prowess on the microphone. Since 2023, he is 3-2 in completed fights with impressive wins versus veterans Tony Ferguson, Grant Dawson, and Jim Miller. However, his losses in that period have been devastating finishes against younger opponents. Jalin Turner delivered one of the knockouts of the year in 2023, and Paddy Pimblett delivered on a submission that had King Green out cold in London last July. He has had time to recover, but taking on the striking prowess of Mauricio Ruffy will be a tall task.
Mauricio Ruffy is a prospect with a ton of hype. He is a part of the fighting Nerds Camp that is currently taking the UFC by storm (Carlos Prates, Caio Borralho, Jean Silva, and more). Ruffy delivered a KO in his Contender Series fight as well as in his UFC debut versus Jamie Mullarkey. He is 28 years old and on the way up, despite going to a one-sided decision in his last bout (the first time seeing the judges scorecards in his 12-fight MMA career). But to be fair, that fight was fought at a catch weight of 165 pounds after his opponent took the scrap on short notice (and still missed weight). That opponent seemed more content to make it to the final bell than go out on his shield. I do not fault Ruffy too much for not getting the KO, given the circumstances. I expect King Green to present a unique challenge, and since this fight should be on the feet, it will be a true test of Ruffy’s striking ability. Green fights with his hands down. If Ruffy has the hand speed to propel him to the top of this division, he will get the knockout.
FIGHT WINNER: Mauricio Ruffy
UFC 313 BEST BET: Pass
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Curtis “Razor” Blaydes (-340) vs Rizvan Kuniev (+270)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+100) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-130)
Heavyweight Bout
Curtis Blaydes is a uniquely talented wrestler in a heavyweight division full of fighters who can’t get back to their feet. He is 13-5 in the organization with all five of his losses coming to highly rated opponents. Everyone else has had little luck solving the riddle of Curtis Blaydes. The 34-year-old veteran has eight wins via KO in the UFC octagon, with the other five wins coming via decision. All five of his UFC losses have come via KO.
Rizvan Kuniev has had a controversial career, even before getting the call to join the UFC. He is 13-2-1 as a professional. Both of his losses came in his early 20s to fighters who reached the UFC and had varying levels of success. Now 31, he is making the jump to MMA’s top organization after winning via first-round KO in Contender Series. However, before his UFC, he got a shot in MMA’s second-biggest organization, PFL. He defeated the eventual 2023 season heavyweight champion, Renan Ferreira…. But that is not what his record shows. The fight was changed to a no contest after Kuzniev tested positive for just about every performance-enhancing drug in the book. Cut from PFL, he waited a year and a half to make his Contender Series in a body that was much less cut than the one he was in when defeating Ferreira. My gut says Kuzniev is being fed to the wolves, but this is an odd card placement for someone who could be considered an MMA black sheep. I look forward to watching this, but all outcomes are on the table.
FIGHT WINNER: Curtis Blaydes
UFC 313 BEST BET: Pass
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Rei Tsuruya (+140) vs Joshua “The Fearless” Van (-166)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)
Flyweight Bout
Rei Tusuruya is the next high-potential Japanese fighter to join the UFC. Tsuruya is just 22 years old and holds a sterling 10-0 record. He went 3-0 on Road to the UFC and won his debut versus the veteran Carlos Hernandez via decision. On the way up, he won four times via submission and four times via KO. He is not a very active striker and prefers to get fights to the ground, where he can do most of his work. That being said, he is an accurate striker, and his ground control game usually prevents him from eating too many shots.
Josh Van is the older man in the cage for once in his career. The 23-year-old is 12-2 as a pro and 5-1 in the UFC. He has extremely active hands and does a good job avoiding getting taken down. He was initially supposed to fight Bruno Silva on this card, but Silva withdrew, and Tsuruya stepped in. I expect Van’s crips striking to be on full display in this fight. He lands at a blistering pace, 8.88 significant strikes per minute, while also maintaining an 80% takedown defense rate. It should also be noted that he has faced numerous opponents who employ takedowns early and often, and his defense rate is not the result of fighting low-level grapplers.
FIGHT WINNER: Josh Van
UFC 313 BEST BET: Josh Van (-165, Caesars), Risk 1.65 Units to Win 1
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Brunno “The Hulk” Ferreira (+120) vs Armen “Superman” Petrosyan (-142)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+130) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-166)
Middleweight Bout
Brunno Ferreira has one of the more fitting nicknames in the UFC. The Hulk is a true brute as a 5’10” middleweight. He has long arms and elite power. He also is an entertainer and goes all in looking for the finish early in his fights. Sometimes, his defense suffers, and sometimes, he runs out of gas (as seen in his last fight versus Abus Magomedov). But as long as he is fresh, he is a threat to knock anyone’s head off. He made his UFC debut by knocking out Greg Rodrigues in the first round. He is 3-2 in the organization and 12-2 as a professional and has never seen a judge’s scorecard. Eleven of his fights have been over in the first round. He is not overly accurate and does not have a high-level striking defense. For him, the game is to hit harder than his opponent as they exchange blows.
Armen Petrosyan is 6’3” with a kickboxing background. He is 3-3 in the UFC and on a two-fight losing streak. He has nice wins over Gregory Rodrigues and Christian Leroy Duncan, but his last two losses were concerning from a fight IQ perspective. He got taken down in the first round by Rodolfo Vieira and was promptly submitted. Versus Shara Magomedov, he got into a firefight and ate the legendary double spinning backfist on his way to getting knocked out. Despite being five inches taller than Ferreira, he will actually have a one-inch reach disadvantage in the cage. In this matchup of superhero nicknames, I love the Hulk over Superman. If Petrosyan can drag this fight out, he has a shot, but given that he isn’t likely to grapple, I’m not sure how he can last until the third round versus Ferreira’s power.
FIGHT WINNER: Brunno Ferreira
UFC 313 BEST BET: Brunno Ferreira (+120) vs Armen Petrosyan, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.2
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Alex “The Great White” Morono (+500) vs Carlos “The Lion” Leal (-700)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+105) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-135)
Welterweight Bout
Alex Morono is not only a UFC fighter, he is also an MMA coach at Gracie Barra: The Woodlands. For some fighters, juggling these responsibilities has an adverse effect on their career. I put Alex Morono in this category. He is 13-8 in the UFC and just 2-4 in his last six fights dating back to December 2022. And even in his most recent win, a decision victory versus Court McGee, he did not look good and seemingly gassed out late in the fight. Nine of his UFC victories have come via decision, so gas tank is important. At this point, I am not confident he has the drive and determination to gut out important moments late in fights.
Carlos Leal is an MMA pro who is stepping into the UFC octagon for the second time. He lost a very controversial decision to Rinat Fakhretdinov in his debut (16/16 journalists gave the fight to Leal, and 11 didn’t have him dropping a round). Before the UFC, he was 5-2 in the UFC, with both losses coming to PFL title challenger Sadibou Sy. The 30-year-old also has a 1-0 Bellator record and 3-0 in LFA, so he has found success all over the MMA world. Ten of his 21 professional wins have come via KO, but he is a fairly well-rounded fighter overall, with grappling skills to accompany his powerful hands. I understand him as a favorite here versus Alex Morono. However, the price is a bit concerning.
FIGHT WINNER: Carlos Leal
UFC 313 BEST BET: Pass
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Mairon “The Legend” Santos (-290) vs Francis “Fire” Marshall (+235)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-210) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+160)
Featherweight Bout
Mairon Santos is the champion of the most recent season of The Ultimate Fighter. In the title fight, he knocked out Kaan Ofli after fighting to a decision in his two previous bouts on the TV show. The 24-year-old looked ready for UFC stardom versus another opponent trying to find his way into the octagon by any means necessary. But his development and maturity will be tested versus the more veteran Francis Marshall. Santos has one career loss as a pro versus UFC fighter Dan Argueta. He lost that via ground-and-pound knockout as a 21-year-old. Francis Marshall is just 25 years old and is 2-2 in the UFC. For such a short career, he has already experienced a wide range of results. He won his debut via KO, and followed that up with a split decision loss, a TKO loss, and a split decision win. Marshall’s striking ability is rudimentary, but he can chain together takedowns and control opponents from top position. This fight is going to be a big test for both combatants. I don’t love Marshall’s high-end potential in the organization, but I think the price on Santos is a bit high for a green fighter.
FIGHT WINNER: Mairon Santos
UFC 313 BEST BET: Pass
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Chris “El Gaupo” Gutierrez (-108) vs John “Sexi Mexi” Castañeda (-112)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-315) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+230)
Featherweight Bout
The circumstances around this fight are a bit strange. It feels like you need a ruler and abacus to track what happened to set this fight up. Originally, Chris Gutierrez was supposed to fight Jean Matsumoto on this fight card. Matsumoto got rebooked to fight Rob Font on last week’s fight card after Dominick Cruz withdrew due to injury. John Castaneda was scheduled to fight Douglas Silva de Andrade last week, but Andrade was not medically cleared to fight. Castaneda was then rebooked to take on Chris Gutierrez on this fight card at featherweight. Both of these men usually compete down a weight class as 135-pound bantamweights. Given they are veterans and the chaos around this bout, the organization let them go easy on the weight cut. Chris Gutierrez has fought in the UFC as a featherweight once before. He won via lag kick TKO vs. Vince Morales. Gutierrez is a solid striker who has little power in his hands. He scores a lot and struggles against opponents with big power advantages. I do not think Castaneda is a big-time power puncher. However, he does have a good grappling game, and therein lies his most viable path to victory. That being said, I expect Gutierrez to pick him apart over the course of three rounds.
FIGHT WINNER: Chris Gutierrez
UFC 313 BEST BET: Chris Gutierrez (-108) vs John Castaneda, Risk 1.08 Units to Win 1
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Ozzy Diaz (+164) vs Djorden “Shakur” Santos (-198)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+130) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-166)
Middleweight Bout
Ozzy Diaz had an unceremonious entrance to the UFC. He fought up at light heavyweight against Mingyang Zhang and met the fate of most of Zhang’s opponents: a TKO loss in the first round. Prior to entering the UFC, he fought Joe Pyfer in Contender Series and lost via KO in that bout as well, but he was still given a UFC contract a few years later due to his exciting style. He has a 100% finish rate in his nine professional victories, and all three of his losses have come via KO. Djorden Santos is 10-1 as a professional. He won in Contender Series via decision as a +300 underdog versus hyped English prospect Will Currie. Seven of his wins have come via finish, and his one loss was via decision in a low-level MMA organization back in 2019. I am a bit skeptical of his pre-UFC accomplishments and think Diaz has definitely faced stiffer competition throughout his career. Diaz has the potential to make this a wild fight, which is not generally the style that Santos seeks out.
FIGHT WINNER: Ozzy Diaz
UFC 313 BEST BET: Pass
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UFC 313 BEST BEST BETS RECAP
– Alex Pereira (-115, BetMGM) vs Magomed Ankalaev, Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
– Justin Gaethje (+135, BetMGM), vs Rafael Fiziev, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.35
– Amanda Lemos (+125, Caesars), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.25
– Josh Van (-165, Caesars), Risk 1.65 Units to Win 1
– Brunno Ferreira (+120) vs Armen Petrosyan, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.2
– Chris Gutierrez (-108) vs John Castaneda, Risk 1.08 Units to Win 1
