UFC 315 Predictions Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC 315 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 3-4 -0.7 Units (-8.72% ROI)
Since 2020: 710-681 (+187.5 Units, 10.76% ROI)
PICK’EM HISTORY
Last Week: 6-6 (50%)
Article History: 367-241-1 (60.36%)
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Belal “Remember The Name” Muhammad (-185) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (+154)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+130)
Welterweight Championship
Belal Muhammad took the long road to the top. It took 18 UFC fights and a 10-fight win streak to get his shot, but he got it, and left no doubt fighting Leon Edwards in England last Summer. Belal Muhammad has always been a dominant wrestler, but in recent years, his striking has advanced in a significant way. He trains at Valle Flow Striking with the likes of Ignacio Bahamondes, and the results have been apparent. But striking is just a tool for Muhammad to control space and distance. He landed nine takedowns versus Leon Edwards and walked out of the cage with over 12 minutes of control time. The game plan should not change here. Overall, Muhammad is 15-3 in the UFC with 1 no contest. He has two wins via knockout and one via submission, so it’s safe to say that if this fight goes according to plan for Muhammad, he will probably be getting his hand raised.
Jack Della Maddalena is 17-2 as a pro fighter, and a perfect 9-0 in the UFC. He is coming off a come-from-behind victory versus the veteran Gilbert Burns. In that fight, Burns landed seven takedowns and was on his way to getting his hand raised before getting caught with a huge shot and getting finished on the ground with elbows. The result was extremely impressive for Della Maddalena. He broke his arm during the bout but was able to rally and find a way to get his hand raised. Whatever it takes is a common theme in his fights. He defeated Kevin Holland and Bassil Hafez in close split decisions in his two previous fights. Before that, he was a finishing machine with four wins inside the distance. Della Maddalena has a one-inch reach advantage in this fight and is the much more polished striker. He lands nearly seven significant strikes per minute and is hard to hit, avoiding 66% of his opponent’s attempts.
This is Della Maddalena’s first UFC main event and his first five-rounder in the organization. He is just 28 years old and eight years younger than Muhammad, which is usually a big advantage. However, in this matchup, I am not certain age will be a factor. Both men have cardio for days, and Della Maddalena has shown the ability to recover late in fights. Five rounds is where Belal Muhammad is at his best, and his cardio can never be questioned. I think that his takedown-heavy game plan is the perfect approach for Della Maddalena as long as he can avoid heavy power shots. I expect this to go the distance with Muhammad winning four rounds.
Fight Winner: Belal Muhammad
UFC 315 BEST BET: Belal Muhammad (-180, BetOnline) vs Della Maddalena, Risk 1.8 Units to Win 1
–
Valentina Schevchenko (+114) vs. Manon Fiorot (-135)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-298) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+220)
Women’s Flyweight Championship
Valentina Shevchenko is one of the greatest women’s mixed martial artists of all time. She’s a multi-time champion, and she has beaten absolute legends. If it weren’t for Amanda Nunes, she would have a much cleaner record than the 24-4-1 she has racked up. But she has been able to accomplish so much in mixed martial arts because she has such a well-rounded game. When an opponent worries about her striking, she takes them down. When an opponent worries about her takedowns, she can dominate on the feet. Overall, Shevchenko is 13-3 with one draw in her UFC career. She has four wins via knockout and two via submission in the organization. It is also safe to say that she is beyond her prime. At 37 years old, there is a lot of wear on Schevchenko’s body. She fought Alexa Grasso in her last three fights. She lost her belt to her in 2023, she fought to a draw in the rematch (which was a little bit suspect if I’m being honest), and then won via unanimous decision in the third attempt to retain her title. Before the Grasso trilogy, she won via split decision versus Talia Santos, which was perhaps the first indicator she might not be as good as she once was. All things considered, a diminished version of Schevchenko still may be the best fighter in this division.
Manon Fiorot has done amazing things in a relatively short UFC career. She is 7-0 in the organization and has beaten past greats like Rose Namajunas and shut down hype trains when fighting surging opponents such as Erin Blanchfield and Katlyn Cerminara. She is an exceptional stand-up fighter, and she is massive in the 125-pound women’s weight class. She’s 5’7” with a 66-inch reach, and she looks every bit of it. Fiorot has power that you cannot overlook. Despite not being much of a grappler, she has takedown defense for days. Overall, in the UFC, she has amassed a 93% takedown defense rate. In her last two fights, Erin Blanchfield went 0-3 on takedown attempts, and previous to that, Rose Namajunas went 0-6. Her striking differential is at +2.5 per minute, which means that she wins a lot of rounds. Schevchenko has a much more advanced striking game than virtually anyone in the organization, but Fiorot is a worthy favorite in this fight, and I do not think the price is out of line.
Fight Winner: Manon Fiorot
UFC 315 BEST BET: Pass
–
Jose Aldo (-192) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+160)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-330) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+240)
Featherweight
Jose Aldo is a former featherweight champion of the world. Recently, he has been fighting in the bantamweight division. However, this fight was moved up to featherweight at the last minute to accommodate Aldo having weight-cutting issues.. For his entire career, he has been known as a crisp striker with spectacular takedown defense. He held the current bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili to a 0% takedown rate when they fought a few years ago. He has slowed down in recent years and has gone just 1-2 in his last three fights. His last loss to Mario Bautista was a split decision and quite controversial, with most commentators believing he should have had his hand raised because his opponent spent most of the fight stalling. Aldo is still fast and still has power, but his last six fights have gone to the judges’ scorecards. He is also 37 years old and not anywhere near the prime he was at a decade plus ago. The fact that this fight was moved to featherweight because of Aldo having trouble with the cut is a meaningful red flag.
Aiemann Zahabi is also 37 years old and the brother of one of the greatest coaches in MMA history. Zahabi was not supposed to be much in this organization after he started out his career going one and two and then missed two years due to injury. Since that injury break, he is 5-0, with nearly all of his wins coming as an underdog. His fighting IQ is unmatched, his striking is good, and his grappling is good enough. With the caveat that it is against worse competition in a smaller sample, Zahabi actually has better striking defense than Aldo at 71%, which is among the highest rates in all of the UFC. Additionally, Zahabi is Canadian, and this will be a very Canadian crowd. Skill for skill, Aldo is probably superior. However, when it comes to fitness, I think Zahabi’s body is in a much better place than Jose Aldo’s. Additionally, there are questions about Aldo’s true age after guys like Gilbert Burns have commented he may be older than the UFC thinks.
FIGHT WINNER; Aiemann Zahabi
UFC 315 BEST BET: Aiemann Zahabi (+160) vs Aldo, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.6
–
Alexa Grasso (+200) vs. Natalia Silva (-245)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-425) | Under 2.5 Rounds +300
Women’s Flyweight
Alexa Grasso is an exemplary fighter. She is a former belt holder and reached those heights after her career began with less than a flourish. From 2016-2019, she went 2-3 in the organization. From 2020-2023, she went 5-0-1 and won the women’s flyweight title. She got hot at the right time and found herself in a division devoid of viable opponents for Valentina Schevchenko. She probably should have lost the draw in the title rematch, and was out-grappled in the third fight of the trilogy. If she can pull the upset here, she can potentially get another title shot, depending on how the co-main event plays out. Most of her fights have gone the distance, but she has landed two submissions in the UFC and been submitted once. She is an adequate striker, mostly because her defense is above average.
Natalia Silva has been on the fast track since joining the UFC in June of 2022. She began her career in the organization with a decision win over Jasmine Jasudavicius, followed up with two inside-the-distance victories. She has progressively seen stronger and stronger veteran opponents and passed all tests and sits at 6-0 in the organization. The 28-year-old has the potential to fight for a title if she proves she can beat a second former champion. She has been nearly unhittable in stand-up exchanges. She is good enough on the ground to avoid trouble and threaten opponents with submissions if she gets there, but at this point, winning stand-up exchanges is her best path to victory because she is much crisper than every opponent she has faced thus far. She is used to being the favorite. Only in her promotional debut has she been an underdog.
FIGHT WINNER: Natalia Silva
UFC 315 BEST BET: Pass
–
Benoit Saint-Denis (-1600) vs. Kyle Prepolec (+900)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+150) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-195)
Lightweight
Betnoit Saint-Denis was supposed to face off against Joel Alvarez in what would have been a white knuckle race to a finish. He is now getting a replacement opponent, but I doubt his game plan changes much. Saint-Denis is an extremely aggressive fighter and quickly made fans in the organization because of his hard-charging style. He sells out for finishes and at times neglects his defensive responsibility. This isn’t much of an issue when fighting low-level opponents, but in his last two fights, he has fought two of the best in the division in Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano. His aggression got the best of him as he was finished in both fights due to damage in the second round. His striking defense rate of 41% is among the worst we see among UFC fighters.
Kyle Prepolec is getting a second shot at UFC glory. The 35-year-old Canadian had an unceremonious UFC run in 2019 where he went 0-2 with decision losses to Nordine Taleb and Austin Hubbard. On the regional scene, he has gained some momentum, going 3-0 with three knockout finishes in his last three fights. That being said, the organizations he was fighting in are far from respectable, and his opponents probably couldn’t even make the cast on a season of The Ultimate Fighter. In his two UFC fights, he only landed 34% of the significant strikes he threw while eating 46% of what came back his way. I think Prepolec will struggle in this fight, but he does have a striker’s chance if he can find his opponent’s suspect chin.
FIGHT WINNER: Benoit Saint-Denis
UFC 315 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
–
Mike Malott (-205) vs. Charles Radke (+170)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)
Welterweight
Mike Malott made a name for himself as a fast finisher in the UFC. He was 3-0 with all three wins coming in six minutes or less. Yet, when he was a -400 favorite versus Neil Magny, he was humbled. After starting fast, Magny was able to get the upper hand late and win with devastating ground and pound. But Malott learned from that experience, and when he faced off against the dangerous Trevin Giles, he won a straightforward decision. He didn’t get overly aggressive and controlled the range, allowing himself to land 25 more significant strikes than his opponent. Malott’s bread and butter is grappling, but he didn’t land a single takedown versus Giles. I think this is actually good for his confidence because he found a win when things were not going according to his usual script.
Charles Radtke is now 3-1 in the UFC, with the one loss coming to Carlos Prates. Two of his wins have come via knockout in the first round. He has never been taken down on four attempts by opponents. He is a better true striker than Malott, but this is mixed martial arts, and I expect Radtke to get taken down in this fight. This should be a competitive fight with plenty of action for the Canadian crowd.
FIGHT WINNER: Mike Malott
UFC 315 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
–
Jessica Andrade (+230) vs Jasmine Jasudavicius (-285)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+120)
Women’s Flyweight
Jessica Andrade is 33 years old and has already had 28 fights in the UFC. She briefly held the women’s strawweight title in 2019 but lost it to Weili Zhang. Her record in the organization is 17-11, but she has been in plenty of close fights that didn’t go her way, and has had numerous iconic moments in both victory and defeat. She has a decent ground game, but her biggest moments in the organization have come with her hands. She has landed 6.44 significant strikes per minute over the course of her career and has earned six knockout victories in the organization. She has bounced between flyweight, strawweight, and even bantamweight throughout her career, and generally speaking, she has done her best work in the lower weight class. She is just 10-5 at 115 pounds and 7-6 in all other weight classes.
Jasmine Jasudavicius is on a great run, winning her last four fights (two via submission). Overall, she is 7-2 in the UFC and 3-0 while fighting on Canadian soil. She is big in the weight class and employs a dominant ground game to win rounds. She has landed 3+ takedowns in her last three fights, using the strength advantage she has versus virtually everyone she sees. Her hands are not necessarily fast or crisp, but they are improving, and she will have a six-inch reach advantage versus Jessica Andrade. That being said, if this fight stays standing, she could struggle to land the requisite strikes to win a decision.
FIGHT WINNER: Jasmine Jasudavicius
UFC 315 BEST BET: Saint-Denis/Prepolec Fight Doesn’t Start R3/Jasmine Jasudavicius (-122), Risk 1.22 Units to Win 1
–
Modestas Bukauskas (+105) vs Ion Cutelaba (-125)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+120)
Light Heavyweight
Modestas Bukauskas is 4-1 since returning to the UFC in February of 2023 (before that, he was 1-3 before getting cut. He has below-average striking power for UFC light heavyweights, but he makes up for that with a solid 6’3” frame with a 78” reach. He also has a high fight IQ since returning to MMA’s top organization, realizing there is more than one way to get your hand raised. He won his last fight with a combination of punches as a -285 favorite, and won the fight prior to that with a triangle choke as a -160 favorite versus Marcin Prachnio. Three of his four UFC losses have come via knockout.
Ion Cutelaba is having a career renaissance after falling on hard times. He has won two fights in a row, and three of his last four after going on a three-fight losing streak. At one point, he was a fan favorite because, win or lose, he aggressively pursued finishes. He employed his wrestling to get his last opponent down and win via submission. Before that, he won a split decision versus Ivan Erslan and lost a decision to Philipe Lins. He is not quite as aggressive as he was in his younger years, but he is better at finding ways to win. This fight has the potential to be the fight of the night or immediately forgettable. I think Cutelaba can overwhelm Bukauskas if he is fearless early and forces the fight to the mat. Both fighters have far below-average striking defense, and both are capable of winning with strikes.
FIGHT WINNER: Modestas Bukauskas
UFC 315 BEST BET: Pass
–
Navajo Stirling (-310) vs Ivan Erslan (+250)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+135)
Light Heavyweight
Navajo Stirling is a 27-year-old New Zealander with a 6-0 record. He won his UFC debut via decision in December 2024. Prior to that, he was on a four-fight knockout streak, including a second-round Finish in Contender Series. He trains at the famed City Kickboxing out of New Zealand which is the gym that is full of high level UFC fighters such as Israel Adesanya, Carlos Ulberg, Kai Kara-France, and Dan Hooker. With a limited sample size, Stirling has proven to be a fluid and effective striker. His last opponent went 3-9 on takedown attempts, showing that City Kickboxing fighters still have an answer for grapplers.
Ivan Erslan debuted on the UFC Paris card last September. He performed well in his split decision loss to Ion Cutelaba. He stopped all but three of Cutelaba’s 12 takedown attempts and landed 56% of his strike attempts. The issue was his volume was way too low, mostly because he had to spend so much time dealing with Cutelaba’s attempts to grapple. He previously fought in KSW, a respectable European promotion, and challenged for the light heavyweight title twice (unsuccessfully). When it comes to fight experience, Erslan laps Stirling. When it comes to frame and physical gifts, Stirling leads. This fight could be Erslan’s coming-out party, or it could be the fight that sends him back to the European regional scene. If he employs a mixed attack and can close the distance on Stirling, he has a chance to derail his opponent’s hype train.
FIGHT WINNER: Navajo Stirling
UFC 315 BEST BET: Pass
–
Marc-Andre Barriault (-162) vs Bruno Silva (+136)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-200) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+154)
Middleweight
Marc-Andre Barriault’s fights tend to be over quickly. He is 5-8 in the UFC, with seven of those fights being concluded inside the distance. He has been knocked out in his last two fights, both in the first round. Three of his five UFC wins have come inside the distance. The Canadian madman charges forward and either imposes his will or goes down quickly. His last fight was also in Canada, and he was embarrassed as a -205 favorite. Over the course of his career, he has landed 5.98 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.58.
Bruno Silva has looked absolutely uninterested in fighting in his past several fights. He is 0-4 dating back to June 2023 and 4-6 overall in the organization. He did get robbed of a result with a bad technical decision versus Chris Weidman, but even that is a marginal result. He is a gifted striker when he opens up, but opening up hasn’t been on the menu often lately. He seems more worried about avoiding strikes than landing his own. Simply put, he looks scared out there. But he is probably going to knock out Barriault or get knocked out quickly due to the nature of the opponent.
FIGHT WINNER: Bruno Silva
UFC 315 BEST BET: PARLAY: Malott/Radtke No Distance + Barriault/Silva No Distance (+122), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.22
–
Daniel Santos (+120) vs Jeong Yeong Lee (-142)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+114) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-145)
Featherweight
Daniel Santos lost his UFC debut but has won his last two fights. He has not been active since June 2023. He has had to withdraw from his last three scheduled bouts, which makes it hard to have confidence in his physical fitness. Although his activity has been low, he did get a banner win versus John Castaneda in 2022 via second-round knee. If this fight goes according to plan, he will probably land a few takedowns. The 11-2 fighter has five pro wins via KO and two via submission, making him yet another dangerous finisher out of the Chute Boxe gym.
Jeong Yeong Lee is 2-1 in the UFC, but was knocked out by Hyder Amil when he last fought in July of 2024. Before joining the UFC, he went 2-0 in Road to UFC with two finishes. Overall, his activity level has not been great when it comes to striking, but he will be the larger man in this fight. He stands 5’10” to Santos’ 5’7” and has a six-inch reach advantage. I expect this to be a very competitive fight with a good chance that it goes the distance.
FIGHT WINNER: Daniel Santos
UFC 315 BEST BET: Daniel Santos (+125, BetOnline) vs Lee, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.2
–
Brad Katona (+124) vs Bekzat Almakhan (-148)
Over 2.5 (-375) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+270)
Bantamweight
Brad Katona knows how to fight well, but is usually limited by his physical abilities. He is a relatively small bantamweight at just 5’6” and lacks any meaningful punching power. He has a gas tank for days and is a capable grappler, but simply lacks the physical tools to impose his will. He is 2-2 since returning to the UFC after going 2-2 in his first run in the organization. All eight of his UFC fights went to the judges’ scorecards, as did his two fights on The Ultimate Fighter in season 31. He is a proud Canadian and will have the crowd on his side as he kicks off this fight card.
Bekzat Almakhan is 11-2 as a pro fighter and 0-1 in the UFC. His debut in the promotion came versus Umar Nurmagomedov. He fought to a decision as a +800 underdog. He was controlled for 11:25 of that 15-minute fight. Prior to the UFC, he was a knockout artist with most of his best work coming in the Kazakh Octagon promotion. This fight is tough to call because Almakhan debuted in a difficult spot and really never got his game going. Brad Katona will likely also employ takedowns, which could mean history repeats itself.
FIGHT WINNER: Brad Katona
UFC 315 BEST BET: Pass
UFC 315 BEST BEST BETS RECAP
– Belal Muhammad (-180, BetOnline) vs Della Maddalena, Risk 1.8 Units to Win 1
– Aiemann Zahabi (+160) vs Aldo, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.6
– PARLAY: Saint-Denis/Prepolec Fight Doesn’t Start R3/Jasmine Jasudavicius (-122), Risk 1.22 Units to Win 1
– PARLAY: Malott/Radtke No Distance + Barriault/Silva No Distance (+122), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.22
– Daniel Santos (+125, BetOnline) vs Lee, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.2
