UFC 316 Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley Predictions:
This week, the UFC 316 PPV event hits Newark, New Jersey, for Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley II: the rematch. The event will be held in the Prudential Center, which is supervised by one of the most notorious fight commissions of all fifty states: New Jersey. If you think UFC judging can be difficult to figure out, prepare yourselves for New Jersey. You have been warned!
The large cage and a well-lubricated Jersey crowd will greet these fighters. As of this review, there are 13 bouts scheduled, with five fights at 170 pounds and above, where the finish rates are highest. American fighters heavily populate this card, but athletes arrive from China, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Moldova as well.
This year, underdogs jumped out in the early months, but we have seen heavy favorite results since then.
To date, the UFC’s favorites are 127-64-7 64.1%, which is about par for most UFC years.
2025 results: 11-14 -3.65u
Merab Dvalishvili -300 vs. Suga Sean O’Malley +250
Men’s Bantamweight (135 pounds) Championship
Former Bantamweight Champion ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley is a highly skilled, lightning-quick, precision striker with power and pop at the end of his strikes/kicks. Last fall, a not fully healthy O’Malley lost a decision to Dvalishvili, where several things were revealed.
First, O’Malley may have overestimated his ability to defend a Dvalishvili takedown. Second, Dvalishvili’s fight IQ was absolutely not on the same level as his cardio, wrestling takedowns, or will.
Since that defeat last September, O’Malley has removed himself from the public spotlight to concentrate on wresting his title away from Dvalishvili, a fighter we must begin to consider as a top-three Bantamweight of all time!
For O’Malley to recapture the title, he will have had to evolve/improve his mixed martial arts repertoire mentally and, as importantly, physically.
O’Malley’s strengths are his speed, precision striking ability, and athletic movement, but he must be prepared to utilize his wrestling, grappling, and takedown defense. O’Malley understands the importance of keeping this fight on the feet, and he has been attempting to address this shortcoming for years, but with a much more fervent effort these last six months.
Those who claim O’Malley is not, nor ever will be, the wrestler/grappler that Dvalishvili is, are correct. Further, most pundits, including myself, struggle to believe that the takedown defense needed to fend off ‘the machine’ may not be appropriately developed or refined in the period of a few months.
That said, O’Malley has been preparing for this challenge for years, and there will be no excuses if Dvalishvili can chain-lightning takedown the slim striker on his way to another efficient victory.
O’Malley’s long frame and the grappling acumen he has acquired over the last several years will need to be put into much better practice in this rematch.
O’Malley’s coach, Tim Welch, and the fighter fully understand how critical distance control and takedown defense will be in this battle, especially after being in the cage with Dvalishvili. They now understand the depth of Dvalishvili’s strength, cardio, and most especially, his will, and that the sawed-off Dagestani phenom cannot be underestimated.
Dvalishvili is simply an unrelenting chain wrestler who can compete for hours without showing the effects of tiring. However, in this rematch, he gives away physical advantages in age, height, and reach, besides precision striking, kicking, and overall athletic ability, to the former champion O’Malley.
Dvalishvili’s best weaponry in any fight is his unrelenting forward wrestling pressure and his deeply seeded belief in his ability to wear any opponent out (See Dvalishvili’s last bout against Umar Nurmagomedov for that hard proof).
The Dagestani system/culture of mixed martial arts and the tight clan Dvalishvili trains with compete by not allowing opponents to breathe, think, or react because they are constantly fending off their pursuer. Pressing forward unrelentingly to engage, smother, and then defeat the opponent is instilled into the Dagestani men from birth.
O’Malley’s plans must involve setting Dvalishvili up for flush fists and knees to the face by moving to create striking angles from a safe distance. O’Malley will have to keep this fight on the feet, then, by all means available to him, evade the raging bull to maintain the spacing he needs to daze Dvalishvili.
Where O’Malley requires space to flow, Dvalishvili prefers to be affixed to his opponent in strait jacket form so he may force his adversary to spend so much energy defending the takedown, that they are sucked dry when they finally earn some space. Once in said space, the challenge is to land strikes on the incoming opponent before getting tied up, pushed to the fence, or forced to the floor.
The Dagestani style of pressure wrestling simply forces opponents to exhaust all their energy defending the attack. From there, the fight transitions to the best-conditioned athlete.
A final point: We saw Dvalishvili defeat O’Malley last fall. We also saw Dvalishvili clown around and take the final round off. I have seen Dvalishvili dive headfirst into a frozen lake and hurt himself. It is on tape.
While cardio, wrestling, and recent momentum surely ride with Dvalishvili, youth, reach, height and especially fight IQ do not. Those fighting advantages belong to O’Malley.
Let us not forget O’Malley won a few rounds in that last battle, and he was competing with a damaged labrum and little understanding of the actual force of Dvalishvili’s pressure.
Should Dvalishvili take O’Malley lightly in any manner, or should he err in fight strategy by believing he can simply run through the former champion, Dvalishvili could find himself looking up at the lights.
It is my judgment that O’Malley will give us his best fighting performance to date. Will that effort be enough to earn his title back at UFC 316?
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -285
Kayla Harrison -650 vs. Julianna Pena +500
Women’s Bantamweight (135 pounds) Championship
Harrison is a two-time Olympic gold medal winner in Judo. She has trained with the male Dagestani fighters as a habit. Simply put, she is a physical freak. Harrison competed some 15 to 20 pounds higher than the 135 pounds. She will need to be able to make 135 pounds on the nose come Friday morning. This is no small detail and will be watched closely by yours truly.
Harrison is large, talented, and tough, but she has shown little ability to finish well-rounded elite mixed martial artists, which is what I consider Pena to be.
Former champion Pena is a junkyard dog of a mixed martial artist. She is mean, well-conditioned, and tough as a three-dollar steak. Brought up with kickboxing and supplemented with a purple belt in BJJ, Pena uses intelligence, experience, guile, and her downright nasty nature to eventually overwhelm opponents.
Should Harrison have a difficult cut, and even if she does not, I do not believe we can simply overlook Pena’s ability to win this fight.
There is better than a 13.2% chance for Pena to win this fight based on the odds of Harrison -650.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds Under -160
This Under opened -180, and I do agree with the lean from the market to the Over in this bout.
UFC 316 Best Bet: Over 4.5 Rds +145
See below parlay to the next bout…
Kevin Holland -265 vs. Vicente Luque +235
Welterweight (170 pounds)
This fight comes down to the feet.
In Vicente Luque, we have a proud Brazilian warrior who has been competing against the elite in the welterweight division for the last decade. A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a black belt in Luta Livre Esportiva empower Luque to walk straight into the heat of battle, understanding that should any opponent decide to plant and trade with him, his might and his power striking and his granite chin will earn him victory.
Luque struggles when he must move fluently to evade trouble or cut the cage off to initiate it. He’s a simple power striker designed to meet in the middle of the cage and then ‘throw down.’
In Kevin Holland, we get one of the most nimble, athletic mixed martial artists in the division. Holland’s a second-degree black belt in Kung Fu with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
In any fight, Holland is fluid, flashy, brash, and a constant talker when he is dancing in space and peppering opponents with strikes from every appendage and angle.
In this fight, he will be the younger fighter, the taller athlete by four inches, and he will possess a six-inch reach advantage, all terrific advantages for a fight that will take place standing.
Holland understands exactly how to apply his trade to fighters who are unable to catch up to his fluidity of movement and effectively cut off the cage against him.
Holland’s trouble comes against heavy, forceful grapplers/wrestlers who can clasp onto him, negate his ability to dance, drag him to the floor, and dominate him.
Luque will find it extremely difficult to catch up with the more adroit, evasive, athletic, trash-talking Holland. As his frustration grows, so too will Holland’s effectiveness from distance.
UFC 316 Best Bet: Holland -265 to Over 4.5 +145 Harrison/Pena 1u returns 2.38u
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Under -180
On Friday, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops at GambLou.com. Catch all my final releases for UFC 316 there. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the hostilities!
