UFC 318 Predictions Poirier vs. Holloway:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC 318 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
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Last Week: 3-3, +1.4 Units (18.92% ROI)
Since 2020: 728-700 (+187.83 Units, 10.78% ROI)
PICK’EM HISTORY
Last Week: 9-3 (75%)
Article History: 428-271-1 (61.23%)
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Max Holloway (-142) vs Dustin Poirier (+120)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+120)
Lightweight “BMF” Title Fight
Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier are two of the most popular fighters in the UFC. Both will be in the Hall of Fame one day. With too many classic fights to name, these guys have earned this main event showcase. Dustin Poirier’s retirement after this fight is the top headline, but there are still high stakes for Holloway. This is the third time these men have fought. The first time was in 2012—a 20-year-old Max Holloway was handed his first professional loss when a 23-year-old Dustin Poirier found the armbar submission.
In 2019, when Holloway was at the peak of his career, he got a second chance to fight Poirier. Holloway was on a 13-fight win streak, including four featherweight title bouts. That fight was also for a BMF title belt. The featherweight champion Holloway hastily gained weight to fight Poirier at lightweight. In that rematch, Holloway actually landed more significant strikes, but Poirier’s significant strikes were more significant, and his hand raised in a five-round decision.
Holloway may get more title shots in the future, either at featherweight or lightweight, but he will never get another chance to face Dustin Poirier in the UFC Octagon. And I’m not sure this fight will look like either of the previous two. Holloway fought Justin Gaethje at lightweight to win the BMF Belt just over a year ago. That was perhaps the performance of his career. He looked as fast as a featherweight, but he hit with the thud of a natural lightweight. He put the weight on the right way, and his 5’11” frame has no trouble carrying it.
Dustin Poirier’s championship pedigree is not quite the level of Holloway’s. He fought for the lightweight belt three times, and lost all three times via submission against Khabib Nurmagomedov, Charles Oliveira, and Islam Makhachev. His 22 career UFC victories are impressive, as are his 11 career UFC knockouts. He has always been a slick boxer, and even in his title fights, he has been the crisper striker. His issue is his fight IQ at times fails, and he ends up in grappling exchanges that he should be doing everything possible to avoid. That shouldn’t be an issue in this fight. Holloway almost exclusively fights standing despite having a solid submission game. Poirier is the slightly more accurate striker in this matchup, but Holloway’s volume is unmatched. Poirier is also a bit behind Holloway in true strike defense rate, but does get hit less overall due to Holloway’s “eat one to land two” style.
These men will live up to the billing of the “BMF” title. I expect it to be extremely competitive. The tight line is well justified; however, I think there is a real chance that this fight does not reach the final bell. Max Holloway’s chin has finally been cracked, getting knocked out for the first time in his career last October versus Ilia Topuria. Additionally, he ate numerous significant head strikes against Justin Gaethje in the last BMF title fight. Poirier has been finished in three of his last five fights, including a headkick knockout versus Justin Gaethje two years ago. Both of these men have 30+ UFC fights on their resumes. That is the type of wear and tear no human body is meant to endure. Additionally, neither one of these fighters has anything to lose. I do not expect a feeling-out process. I expect both fighters to be out for blood from the outset.
FIGHT WINNER: Max Holloway
UFC 318 BEST BET: Holloway/Poirier Fight Does Not Go The Distance (+105), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.05 Units
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Paulo Costa (+190) vs Roman Kopylov (-230)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-195) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+150)
Middleweight
Paulo Costa was once a middleweight title challenger, but that KO loss to Israel Adesanya five years ago completely altered the course of his career. Costa was 13-0 as a pro before he had his shot at glory, but has gone 1-4 since. To his credit, he has only fought middleweight championship caliber opposition since he got his shot. He still has power, he still is durable, and still has better cardio than is expected out of someone with his musclebound body composition. He is an accurate striker, but is too lax with defense because he knows he has a granite chin. Additionally, he has a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu background, although that skill set has not been evident in his UFC career, and he has never attempted a submission in the organization.
Roman Kopylov is an action fighter who has seen the judges’ scorecards in just two of his nine UFC fights. He is predominantly a striker, but in certain matchups, he has shown the ability to find takedowns. His favorite way to win is via knockout. Five of his six UFC victories have come through strikes, and 12 of his 14 career professional wins have come through the same violent means. He is a fairly accurate striker and better than Costa defensively on paper. Pure striking speed will be in his favor in this matchup. He is not just a boxer either. Whereas Costa is most active with his hands, Kopylov has repeatedly shown the ability to find devastating kicks to the head and body.
Costa’s recent record is not as strong as Kopylov’s, but his strength of schedule is significantly better. Maybe Kopylov is ready to take the next step up, and beating Costa would signal he has the potential to fight for a title one day. But I am not there yet. I think Costa has one run left, and I think Kopylov is the perfect opponent to kickstart the comeback.
FIGHT WINNER: Paolo Costa
UFC 318 BEST BET: Paulo Costa (+205, Circa) vs Kopylov, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.05 Units
Paulo Costa to Win via Knockout (+550, Bovada), vs Kopylov, Risk 1 Unit to Win 5.5
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Kevin Holland (-625) vs Daniel Rodriguez (+455)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+120) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-154)
Welterweight
Kevin Holland has already fought three times in 2025. He lost in January at middleweight, but followed it up with two impressive wins back down at welterweight, where he belongs. Holland is among the most active fighters in UFC history, and with that comes many ups and many downs. But the man is a fan favorite not just for showing up, but because he is a finisher in every sense of the word. Six UFC knockouts, five UFC submissions, and many more of each on the regional scene. He doesn’t always display perfect fight IQ, and finds himself fighting right into the teeth of his opponent’s strengths in all of his losses. But those issues have seemingly vanished in Holland’s recent victories. His last two opponents landed a combined 39 significant strikes. Additionally, he is not going to need to worry about grappling because that is not a meaningful part of Daniel Rodriguez’s game.
Daniel Rodriguez is a 9-4 in the UFC dating back to his debut in 2020. He is mostly a boxer and generally wins battles of attrition over the course of three hard-fought rounds. He is very active with his hands and lands two more significant strikes per minute than his opponents on average. He is also on a two-fight win streak after uncharacteristically losing three in a row. I like D-Rod, I like his mindset and his dedication to the game. But he is not getting any younger at 38 years old. He is a one-note fighter, which has capped his potential to rise higher in the division. Additionally, he will be at a nine-inch reach disadvantage in this bout. I believe Kevin Holland will win, and all methods of victory are on the table.
FIGHT WINNER: Kevin Holland
UFC 318 BEST BET: Pass
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Dan Ige (-225) vs Patricio Pitbull (+185)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-270) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+200)
Featherweight
Dan Ige is another popular UFC veteran on this card who has impressed with his longevity in the organization. The 33-year-old has gone 11-8 in the UFC over the past seven years. He is not championship quality, but he is as good as gatekeepers come. He has brutal knockout power and has found his opponent’s chin in his last two victories. He has good takedown defense, but not elite. His willpower and ability to survive in fights that aren’t going his way are commendable. He has never been finished in nine professional losses. His striking defense is good, but when he faces elite grapplers, he usually runs into trouble.
Patricio Pitbull is a former Bellator Champion who amassed as much MMA fame as possible from outside the UFC. The 38-year-old made his UFC debut three months ago and lost a decision ot Yair Rodriguez. He never got going offensively in that fight, was successful on just one of four takedown attempts, and only landed 17 of 50 significant strike attempts. His toughness was on full display, but he quickly learned that Bellator Championship belts don’t carry weight in the octagon. This fight is a little better for him on paper, as he doesn’t give up as much height as he did against Rodriguez, and takedowns should be on the menu.
FIGHT WINNER: Dan Ige
UFC 318 BEST BET: Pass
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Michael Johnson (+455) vs Daniel Zellhuber (-625)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-220) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+170)
Lightweight
As Napoleon Bonaparte is attributed as saying, “Quantity is a quality of its own.” With 30 fights under his belt, 39-year-old Michael Johnson’s quantity of UFC battles is quite impressive. He has gone 15-15 since 2010 and has faced off against legends from multiple generations of the sport. That said, his best days may not all be behind him as he has gone 4-2 since 2022 and is on a two-fight win streak. He has seen it all and has six UFC knockout victories to his name. However, the stats regarding old fighters are not in his favor in this matchup.
Daniel Zellhuber is only 26 years old and is 15-2 as a professional fighter. He is someone who has been tagged as a potential UFC title challenger down the line. However, he is just 3-2 in his UFC career. He is a clean striker and uses his 77” reach well, but I am not fully sold that he will be on the short list of next generation stars for long. He does not yet have the power, and he has also struggled with cardio when he finds opponents willing to go blow for blow with him over the course of three rounds. He lands a lot of strikes, but absorbs nearly as many. His takedown defense is good, but he has only seen two opponents who fully committed to that game plan. I expect Zellhuber to navigate his way to victory here, but I do not think it is a safe bet at this price.
FIGHT WINNER: Daniel Zellhuber
UFC 318 BEST BET: Pass
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Kyler Phillips (+124) vs Vinicius Oliveira (-148)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-200) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+154)
Bantamweight
Kyler Phillips was surging before his last fight, methodically working his way up the rankings after defeating veterans Raoni Barcelos and Pedro Munhoz. But unfortunately for him, last October, he ran into Rob Font, who refused to stay down when taken down. Font won rounds two and three with his striking and was able to outlast the 30-year-old. Now, Phillips is potentially moving from the prospect role to that of the gatekeeper against Vinicius Oliveira. Oliveira is 3-0 in the UFC. He has nice wins over Ricky Simon and Said Nurmagomedov. He has impressed with his well-rounded skill set, strength, and athleticism. Despite facing some adversity in the regional scene, he is peaking in the UFC, and an impressive performance here could catapult him up the rankings. I am torn on this one. I believe in Oliveira’s ceiling, but I am not ready to give up on Kyler Phillips after one bad showing.
FIGHT WINNER: Vinicius Oliveira
UFC 318 BEST BET: Pass
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Marvin Vettori (+164) vs Brendan Allen (-198)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-315) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+230)
Middleweight
Marvin Vettori is a frustrating fighter. He has fought for the middleweight championship, losing a decision to Israel Adesanya in 2021. Since then, he has fought mostly elite competition. But he is frustrating because, for a guy with so much experience (16 UFC fights), he sometimes lacks fight IQ. He also has very little power and prefers position over submission in most grappling exchanges. His best asset is his durability, as he has never been finished as a professional. His career average fight time is 17:25 minutes, indicating that not only does he often go the distance, but he has also been involved in numerous main events. Brendan Allen is a fighter who generated some hype when he went on a seven-fight win streak from February 2022 to April 2024. He was getting rear-naked choke finishes in seemingly every fight, and his striking game took major steps forward. That said, when he approached the top end of the rankings versus Nassourdine Imavov and Anthony Hernandez, his plans were foiled. He is now on a two-fight win streak. At his best, I think Vettori is better than Brendan Allen; however, I am not certain he is at his best or ever will be again. Brendan Allen has lost all momentum, so I’m not eager to back him either.
FIGHT WINNER: Marvin Vettori
UFC 318 BEST BET: Pass
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Francisco Prado (-148) vs Nikolay Veretennikov (+124)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+135)
Welterweight
Francisco Prado is seemingly a man without a true weight class. He began his UFC career at lightweight, but went 1-2 in that division. He moved up to welterweight and was defeated by Jake Matthews in Australia in February. He is 23 years old, and there is hope regarding his development as a fighter, but I am not sure he has what it takes to last in the organization. His striking is not accurate enough, his defense is not good enough, and his grappling game is virtually nonexistent. I didn’t think Nikolay Veretennikov would still have a place on the UFC roster after his post-fight antics last time he entered the cage. He was finished via ground and pound versus Austin Vanderford, then gave his opponent a huge shove that knocked his opponent down after the fight was long over. However, he is still here and has another chance at redemption against a fighter who has struggled to find success in the organization. Veretinnikov is statistically inferior to Francisco Prado as a striker and also lacks genuine grappling skills. I expect this fight to go the distance, and I give the nod to Prado due to desperation and experience.
FIGHT WINNER: Francisco Prado
UFC 318 BEST BET: Pass
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Ateba Gautier (-550) vs Robert Valentin (+410)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+120) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-154)
Middleweight
Ateba Gautier is raw, young, and a finisher, meaning he fits the mold of someone who could quickly rise to prominence if he keeps developing. He is only 23 years old and 7-1 as a pro fighter. He won a Contender Series fight via knockout as a short underdog back in September 2024. In March of this year, he made his UFC debut and did not disappoint as a -450 favorite, winning via first-round knockout. He is also massive, standing at 6’4” with an 81” reach, meaning that his frame will never be a limiting factor as a fighter. Robert Valentin is much more experienced, having 16 professional fights. However, he is 0-2 in the UFC after losing the championship on The Ultimate Fighter. Valentin has shown much more ability to find victories through wrestling than Gautier, and Gautier’s grappling will be tested in this fight. The prop prices on this fight are just out of control, and if Valentin can weather the early storm, he has a legitimate path to victory on the canvas.
FIGHT WINNER: Robert Valentin
UFC 318 BEST BET: Robert Valentin Win Via Submission (11/1) vs Gautier, Risk 1 Unit to Win 11
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Adam Fugitt (+470) vs Islam Dulatov (-650)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+135) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-175)
Welterweight
Adam Fugitt is a strange fighter to have on the roster. He is 36 years old and has a 2-2 record in the organization and a 10-4 record as a professional. He has no notable regional championships. Overall, he does not fit the profile of a UFC fighter. That being said, two wins in the UFC is a better fighting resume than most people on this planet will ever achieve, maybe I shouldn’t be so hard on him. However, Islam Dulatov will definitely be going hard on him. The 11-1, 26-year-old prospect is making his UFC debut after a dominant Contender Series performance last October. He has a 100% finish rate and has not lost since his professional debut back in 2019. He has five submission victories but has also won two professional boxing matches, speaking to his well-rounded nature. UFC competition is a cut, or several, above every other organization, but I do think this is a soft landing, and I expect Dulatov to find a finish.
FIGHT WINNER: Islam Dulatov
UFC 318 BEST BET: Islam Dulatov win via KO (-140, Bovada) vs Fugitt, Risk 1.4 Units to Win 1
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Jimmy Crute (-325) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+260)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+124) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-160)
Light Heavyweight
Jimmy Crute is an Aussie fan favorite despite not achieving much of note in the UFC. He is 4-4-2 with all of his but the draws concluding inside the distance. He is 29 years old and has already returned from retirement once. He is an exciting fighter, meaning that he is aggressive and does not pay much attention to defense. As long as he finds wins every once in a while, he is safe on the roster, but at this point, I don’t think he has a future in the rankings. Marcin Prachnio is a veteran fighter who has managed to last in the organization since 2018, despite having a 4-6 record and never winning more than two fights in a row. He has an interesting karate striking style and actually projects to land more significant strikes than Crute. The question is, can the 37-year-old Prachnio withstand the power Crute will be offering?
FIGHT WINNER: Jimmy Crute
UFC 318 BEST BET: Pass
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Ryan Spann (-245) vs Lukasz Brzeski (+200)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+145) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-188)
Heavyweight
Ryan Spann jumped up from light heavyweight to heavyweight ahead of his last fight, and the results were not great. He looked like he did a poor job adding the additional weight, and Waldo Cortes-Acosta was able to find the second-round knockout. Overall, Spann is on shaky legs in his career, going just 1-4 in his last five fights. He is still dangerous, possessing knockout power and a submission game that is tough for most big fighters to contend with. However, for him, the issue is integrating all his skills simultaneously. Fortunately, he is fighting against potentially the worst active heavyweight in the division. Lukasz Brzeski is 1-5 in the UFC, with his one win coming via decision in Valter Walker’s promotional debut. He has been knocked out in the first round in his last two bouts and will need to keep his head on a swivel in this one.
FIGHT WINNER: Ryan Spann
UFC 318 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See below
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Brunno Ferreira (-575) vs Jackson McVey (+425)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+195) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-260)
Middleweight
Brunno Ferreira does not have good cardio, but that usually isn’t a factor in his fights. He is 13-2 as a professional fighter, with all thirteen of his victories being called in the first two rounds. In the UFC, he has knockout victories over Gregory Rodrigues, Phil Hawes, and Dustin Stoltzfus. In March, he submitted Armen Petrosyan, which was an impressive display of fight IQ for a fighter who is known as a brawler. He was supposed to fight Ikram Aliskerov on this card, but Aliskerov withdrew, and he is now fighting the 6-0 Jackson McVey. McVey is 26 years old with a 100% finish rate. I expect fireworks in this fight unless McVey goes into full self-preservation mode, which happens from time to time. But given Ferreira’s reckless nature, I believe an early finish is in order.
FIGHT WINNER: Brunno Ferreira
UFC 318 BEST BET: Parlay- Ryan Spann, Ferreira/McVey u1.5 Rounds (-103). Risk 1.03 Units to Win 1
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Carli Judice (-395) vs Nicolle Caliari (+310)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-238) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+180)
Women’s Flyweight
This battle of prospects could have big implications in this division in a few years. But for now, it is two inexperienced combatants who have had less than stellar results in the UFC. Judice is 1-1 in the UFC and is coming off a first-round knockout victory in March. Caliari lost her UFC debut via split decision to Ernesta Kareckaite as a +215 underdog. Judice has a more well-rounded skill set at this juncture in her career, but I do not trust her as a -395 favorite. If I had to bet, I would take the underdog, but luckily, I do not have to bet this bout.
FIGHT WINNER: Carli Judice
UFC 318 BEST BET: Pass
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UFC 318 BEST BETS RECAP
- Holloway/Poirier Fight Does Not Go The Distance (+105), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.05 Units
- Paulo Costa (+205, Circa) vs Kopylov, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.05 Units
- Paulo Costa to Win via Knockout (+550, Bovada), vs Kopylov, Risk 1 Unit to Win 5.5
- Robert Valentin Win Via Submission (11/1) vs Gautier, Risk 1 Unit to Win 11
- Islam Dulatov win via KO (-140, Bovada) vs Fugitt, Risk 1.4 Units to Win 1
- Parlay- Ryan Spann, Ferreira/McVey u1.5 Rounds (-103). Risk 1.03 Units to Win 1
