UFC Vegas 324 Predictions:
After a welcome hiatus, the UFC returns this weekend to Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena for UFC 324 to be aired on Paramount. This event will feature the larger 30-foot octagon and a packed house of fight fanatics.
Welcome news for fight enthusiasts: With a subscription to Paramount, all fights this year are included, as the era of UFC pay-per-view events ends.
There are 13 scheduled bouts for this card, five of which will be held at the Welterweight division (170 pounds) and above. The larger the combatants, the greater the chance for finishes.
There are six bouts on this card in which a youth advantage of six years or more exists between opponents. Fighters six years younger than their opponents realize a 62%-win rate. Fighters who are more than six years younger than their opponents realize even greater advantages, so it’s critical to understand not only the physical and mental capacities of each combatant but their age and who they have competed against in recent fights as well.
While this is an international set of fighters converging in Las Vegas, only two fights feature someone from out of the country facing a domestic US athlete, so home octagon advantage exists in only two fights, one being the main event.
Now let’s break down a couple of fascinating fight matchups.
Paddy Pimblett -230 vs. Justin Gaethje +195
Interim Lightweight Title (155 pounds)
English mixed martial artist Paddy Pimblett is from Liverpool, England, and a proud “Scouser” he is.
Pimblett began his MMA journey at age 15 and has developed into a wildly popular/magnetic UFC athlete.
Paddy “the baddy,” as he is called, is a second-degree black belt in BJJ. He has shown the ability to fluster opponents in the octagon. then force them into making mistakes, where Pimblett, now 29, is able to engulf them in his grappling.
From engagement, Pimblett has a deft ability to find the opponent’s back or alternatively grab their neck, an arm or leg and submit them with brilliant efficiency.
Despite Pimblett being an inch shorter than Gaethje, his opponent this weekend, he will enter the cage well over 170 pounds. He is athletic, strong, and able to utilize his size in grappling transitions that few of his past opponents have been able to stop.
Pimblett is 7-0 in his UFC competition with a razor-close win over Jared Gordon that was graded a win, but in actuality may have been one of the worst decisions in MMA.
Nonetheless, Paddy’s “Scouser” submission ability and his tremendous popularity put him right behind “Suga” Sean O’Malley as the ‘lightning in a bottle’ type of fighters with the far-reaching draw and profuse popularity the UFC so yearns to promote and earn from.
Former “BMF” Champion as well as former lightweight interim champion Justin Gaethje is Pimblett’s adversary this week. Gaethje is a former D1 college wrestler who possesses fight-finishing striking power that can come from any kick, elbow, fist or flying knee, and he throws them all with ill intent.
Gaethje utilizes numbing low leg/calf kicks to maim opponents, then once compromised, he unleashes devastating power strikes that often leave opponents incapacitated.
Gaethje is as forward pressing and aggressive a fighter as can be found on the whole of the UFC roster, and at 37 years old, he has made it clear that with a victory here, he transitions into a championship fight against currently shelved lightweight title holder Ilya Topuria.
What separates Gaethje from Pimblett is that Gaethje has competed against the elite and most dominant athletes in the division for several years. Pimblett has not, and many feel he is in this spot simply because of his popularity and his ability to draw people to fights.
Since 2019, Gaethje has only had setbacks against elite athletes in the division such as Charles Oliveira, Khabib Nurmagomedov and Max Holloway. Gaethje dominated top-10-ranked fighters like Tiger Muay Thai’s striking coach Rafael Fiziev (twice) and former lightweight champion and future Hall of Famer Dustin Poirier.
All of these former opponents have tested Gaethje’s mettle and have prepared him to realize great advantage in the level of competition faced when he steps into this fight against Paddy Saturday night.
It’s Gaethje’s age and ability to fend off the Pimblett takedown attempts and unrelenting grappling advances that become the single focus of how this fight transpires in my judgment.
Once this bout starts, Gaethje, who rarely utilizes his wrestling skill, other than takedown defense, will look to keep this fight standing, then counterattack with those lethal kicks to numb Paddy’s legs and mark him up with an array of knees, elbows, fists, and kicks to the dome.
Paddy for his part will need to navigate through the barrage of power shots and find a way to clasp onto Gaethje, press him against the fence and close distance which will set him up to try to grab ahold of anything, a leg, an arm or ride Gaethje’s back in order to mute that forceful striking and transition this fight into a grappling match where Pimblett should possess great advantage.
The clash of each combatant’s style, the difference in level of competition faced, and the age difference in this fight are all foundational to its outcome.
The magnetism of the Englishman is everything the UFC is yearning for, despite his shallow fight resume, while fighters like the 37-year-old Gaethje will be put up against the hungry young lions on the rise in order to clean out the organization of its aged, higher-paid talent. After all, it is a business!
The UFC yearns to develop and highlight athletes that have dynamic magnetism/appeal besides being capable finishers as they realize what puts butts in the seats. They see particularly great future value in the Scouser from Liverpool, and while they will claim they don’t prefer one fighter over any other, make no mistake that in this new Paramount era, they actually will award fighters who draw crowds and finish opponents with great advantages in upcoming matchups.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -120
Lean Over
Sean O’Malley -200 vs. Song Yadong +170
Bantamweight (135lbs.) co-main event
Fifth-ranked UFC bantamweight Song Yadong began learning Sambo at the age of nine, then transitioned into MMA just a few years after. From the age of 22 on, he’s trained at Team Alpha Male in Northern California under the tutelage of Uriah Faber and his team.
Over the course of the last decade, the trainers at Alpha Male have equipped the 28-year-old Yadong with effective wrestling, strong takedown defense and tremendous cardio ability, all aspects of his fight game that needed improvement.
Yadong arrives at this fight understanding that his opponent, Sean O’Malley, is primarily a striker and a highly precise one at that. Further, Yadong will focus on negating O’Malley’s striking prowess and his long, sinewy frame. To do so, Yadong will need to work his way ‘inside the pocket’ and utilize everything Alpha Male has instilled in him to keep this fight in close and dirty as opposed to out in space and distance where his opponent may maneuver freely.
This is a foundational fight for Yadong. Should he be able to find O’Malley with a power shot or even be able to grind him against the fence from close quarters, then wrestle him up to earn victory, he propels himself into that third-ranked position currently held by O’Malley.
Yadong’s adversary needs little introduction.
Former Bantamweight Champion ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley is a lightning rod of popularity among today’s young fight fans, and his immense popularity goes well beyond just the fight game.
Besides his electric persona, O’Malley is a highly skilled, lightning-quick, precision striker with power and pop at the end of his strikes/kicks and an underrated BJJ game that he has been cultivating for years.
O’Malley’s strengths are his agility, coordination, speed and precision striking ability, but it is his wrestling, grappling and takedown defense that O’Malley must be prepared to utilize in this battle. Yadong is the stronger athlete who understands that in space, this is O’Malley’s fight, so the elimination of distance will surely be Yadong’s goal.
O’Malley understands the importance of keeping this fight on the feet and at distance. By doing so, he may utilize the advantages he possesses, such as deft movement, great footwork, the creation of striking and kicking angles, and his ability to evade strikes from adversaries. The 30-foot cage also complements the fighting style and athleticism O’Malley will utilize to keep his adversary at distance and at the end of his precision strikes.
The uninformed will claim O’Malley is not, nor will he ever be, an effective wrestler/grappler, which is simply not the case. While his wrestling pales in comparison to former champion Merab Dvalishvili, it is developed enough to be able to thwart the efforts of Yadong in this matchup.
O’Malley arrives beaming with confidence. He understands what he is to the UFC as a title contender and that with his dynamic popularity and drawing power, he is but one win away (this one) from a title rematch with current champion Petr Yan, whom O’Malley beat in a highly controversial split decision in October of 2022.
The evolution of the UFC and their new broadcast partner, looking to harness fighters with immense popularity coupled with finishing power and drawing potential, is upon us.
This co-main event was specifically designed to provide one of the UFC’s greatest drawing personalities with an advantageous matchup opportunity in order to boomerang him into a bantamweight super fight with current champion Yan.
The only barricade in the design is Team Alpha Male’s Song Yadong.
The foundation of this fight handicap revolves around the deft O’Malley footwork and his matrix-like strike evasion.
It’s my judgment that Yadong will struggle trying to catch up with O’Malley, especially in the spacious 30-foot octagon. O’Malley’s feet will be the difference in this fight in that they’ll allow him to remain effective in space, where he will be able to slice and dice the incoming Chinese athlete with every form of strike/kick, while at the same time using said footwork to evade the power and effect of Yadong’s striking.
O’Malley opened -300 for this fight before dropping to -190. He is currently priced -200 to Yadong’s +170. Total in this three-round fight is lined 2.5 Rds. Over -240
Props for this fight are available currently. O’Malley decision is priced -110, but rather than get too cute coming out of the 2026 gate, I’ll simply use
UFC 324 Best Bet: Sean O’Malley -200
(Leg 1 of a two-fighter parlay)
In my judgement, that puts me with an interest in the fighter the organization wants to move forward into a championship bout.
Charles Johnson -200 vs. Alex Perez +170
Flyweight (125 pounds)
This is a fight between a tall, rangy, world-class striker in Johnson, who is madly active fighting fellow flyweights, and a short, relatively inactive grappler/wrestler in Alex Perez.
Perez’s inactivity, five fights since 2020, should concern investors, especially understanding that in 2024, he went 1-2 against top-15 competition, then he took only one bout, a loss to Asu Almabaev in 2025.
Perez is willing and experienced, but in this matchup, he faces an athlete three inches taller who has a five-inch reach advantage with his arms and a couple of inches with his legs.
Johnson’s high level of activity (he has had 16 fights since 2020), his mettle, his striking acumen, and the fact that he arrives to this fight brimming with confidence all force me to regard him as a value despite being a -200 chalk.
UFC 324 Best Bet: Parlay Johnson -200/O’Malley -200
1u returns 1.25u
Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available to all across all podcast platforms. It’s also available GambLou.com. Get all of my final releases for this UFC 324 fight card there. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
