UFC 331 Predictions:
This Saturday, UFC 331 will take place in the City of Angels, Los Angeles, CA, with early preliminary action kicking off at 2 p.m. PT, prelims beginning at 4 p.m. PT, and the main card at 6 p.m. PT.
Thirteen bouts are currently scheduled for this fight card, with five taking place in the weight classes where finishes are most common: 170 pounds and above.
Nine athletes ship into the States to compete against domestic athletes, and five local SoCal fighters are representing on the card, with one shipping in from Las Vegas who will also enjoy a relative home advantage.
Six of the 13 fights on this slate opened -250 or greater, so once again, the focus is on being selective and refining the target to athletes in advantageous positions based on their physical size, fight weaponry, and/or level of competition faced.
Last week, Curtis Blaydes +175 proved he was a legitimate top-five athlete in the heavyweight division when he decisioned up-and-coming, singularly dimensioned slugger Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
Digital results stand at 18-14-1 +5.37u into this UFC 331 fight card for an average win of +135 per release.
Meanwhile, favorites in the UFC are 267-105-10 or 70%. We’re bucking that heavy favorite trend effectively.
Let’s fight!
Joshua Van -130 vs. Alexandre Pantoja +110
Flyweight (125 pounds) Championship
Current flyweight champion Joshua Van is a natural fighter. He’s not decorated with Judo, BJJ, or wrestling accolades/belts, but the 24-year-old champion has shown he can show up, use his feet, throw hands, and finish flyweights.
After Van captured the title last December in a fight where Pantoja was injured, he took advantage of Pantoja’s recovery time to accept a fight against up-and-coming Japanese fighter Tatsuro Taira.
Van won that fight impressively, but it’s important to recognize that Taira was able to take Van to the canvas on more than one occasion. The issue for this handicapper is that once on the mat, Taira was unable to keep Van there, which was the difference in the outcome.
Should Pantoja get Van to the mat, Van will struggle mightily to regain his standing position. Pantoja’s advanced grappling game is as complete as anyone’s in the UFC, let alone the flyweight division.
Van is now under four years into the UFC and stands 9-1, his sole loss a KO at the hands of Charles Johnson. He steps up in class for this tussle against grizzled veteran Pantoja.
Van brings momentum into this fight, having found success in the octagon against Pantoja before, when his confidence and momentum were nowhere near the level they are today.
Former flyweight champion Pantoja is a Brazilian mixed martial artist who had to scratch, scrape, and claw his way to the flyweight title before losing it in freakish fashion last December.
Since 2020, the relatively undersized Pantoja has ‘cleaned out’ all viable threats to his title, albeit in a division that has little viewer or popular appeal.
Pantoja trains at Florida’s ATT, a renowned MMA gym with an abundance of skilled fighters and diverse body types. Competing at ATT allows Pantoja to refine his already elite weaponry against every type of adversary, regardless of size.
Pantoja’s dominance in the division reflects the high-energy competition he faces daily at ATT, unlike the general lack of skilled fighters competing at 125 pounds today.
Pantoja, a black belt in BJJ, is a brilliant grappler with striking aptitude, deft defense, and experience against the division’s top threats over a decade-plus.
Now add a finite mental focus to his arsenal to win back the title he lost to injury, not ability, and you have the makings of a great rematch!
Despite his 36 years, Pantoja is lightning quick, strong, and athletic for his age, but the most apparent trait in his fights isn’t his physicality. Rather, it is his mentality, his maturity, and his ability to remain calm in the eye of the firefight.
Pantoja’s mental toughness, fight IQ, and zeal to recapture this title after years of struggle make up the fabric of his arsenal. Never mind his elite, world-class BJJ, wrestling, and Muay Thai skills.
Once this fight begins, it will be interesting to determine how long it takes Pantoja to ground Van, then force the striking-based fighter into the deep waters he has never been taken to.
I find it unlikely that Pantoja will play with his food and give the young lion a chance for a ‘Sunday shot’ by standing and banging any longer than is necessary. This will be an ‘all business’ Pantoja, attempting to award this talented young fighter from Myanmar his PhD. In MMA.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds Over -180
This total opened 2.5, and there are still some 3.5s available. Over 3.5 is a sound consideration, especially since the market is now converting to 4.5 -180 as a total.
Arman Tsarukyan -320 vs. Mauricio Ruffy +265
Lightweight (155 pounds)
Digital readers hold a Su Mudaerji/Arman Tsarukyan parlay ticket -115 for 2.3u.
This parlay was released weeks ago before the Su Mudaerji vs. Alex Perez bout, which Su -185 won (the price on Tsarukyan then was -340). That wager allows us to take the most forceful, wrestling-based Russian vice grip in the division at a near pick ’em price.
Tsarukyan is the top lightweight on the roster, but his constant idiotic displays have put him squarely in the UFC doghouse.
In this fight, if Tsarukyan can control his emotions and actually get to the octagon, he will blitz Ruffy, take him down, and eventually submit him.
That said, Ruffy has been training with Alexander Volkanovski. While one can’t learn wrestling prowess in a couple of years or less, Ruffy’s size, length, speed, precision, and dynamic power together are capable of shutting Tsarukyan’s lights out should he place a spinning heel onto the wrestler’s chin as he forces his way into the pocket to clasp.
Ruffy needs space to succeed in this fight, and Tsarukyan must not give him any.
UFC 331 Best Bet: Mudaerji/Tsarukyan -115 2.3u
Iwo Baraniewski -235 vs. Alonzo Menifield +195
Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)
Menifield is a chiseled, veteran striker with profuse power and a willingness to stand flat-footed and trade. He’s finished 14 of his 18 adversaries via finish (10 KOs) and arrives to this fight knowing it will be waged in the center of the cage and in under 10 minutes, one man will be left quivering on the canvas.
Poland’s Iwo Baraniewski is a decorated, world-class Judo practitioner who holds such dynamic power in his hands that, to date in the UFC, he has been unable to display the depth and completeness of his Judo arsenal because he pulverizes opponents with power shots before he even gets to unleash his foundation, Judo.
This fight will open in a ‘Rock’em Sock’em Robots’ style of toe-to-toe throwdown.
Speed and quickness go to Menifield here, and if he can land first, he has the chance to stun the Polish fighter and force him to transition to that Judo.
However, if Menifield, who has found his way into firefights before, can’t pulverize the Polish power puncher early, he will be at great physical risk. Eventually, this hammer Baraniewski will find Menifield, and when he does, this fight will be over.
Baraniewski is a legitimate, well-rounded fighter that no one in the division wants to face.
I recommend Baraniewski via KO/Sub/DQ, which will be released later in the week (DraftKings).
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds. Under -270
Friday, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. ‘Bout Business is showing 5% ROI for the year and has been on a torrid pace lately. Catch the podcast across all pod platforms or at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the bouts!
