MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, September 16.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:15 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore has had a brutal season. He has a 5.53 ERA, with 1.7 home runs and 3.3 walks per nine innings. The Cardinals have lost six of his past seven starts, as he has had a 7.27 ERA in that stretch. The Giants are expected to have Anthony Molina pitch in some capacity, who owns a 5.24 ERA with 1.2 home runs per nine innings allowed. Both bullpens have struggled, with the Cardinals 24th in bullpen ERA since July 1 at 4.87 while the Giants are 18th at 4.06 in that span.
Pick: Giants vs. Cardinals Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7
6:40 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starting pitcher Nick Martinez owns a 2.92 ERA despite getting only 5.3 strikeouts per nine innings. While his 3.90 fielding independent points towards regression, he does get to face an Athletics lineup that is without their top three players in home runs and are 27th in road scoring with less than 4.2 runs per game. Athletics starting pitcher Brady Basso has a 3.81 ERA with 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Since July 1, the Athletics have the worst bullpen ERA at 5.95.
Pick: Rays Run Line -1.5 +125
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -1.5 124
7:40 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs
Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga has a 3.88 ERA this season with 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed. He should benefit from the wind blowing inward. Braves starting pitcher JR Ritchie has a 4.50 ERA but a 5.41 fielding independent, with 1.4 home runs and 5.6 walks per nine innings/ Ritchie faces a Cubs offense that leads the league in scoring with over 5.3 runs per game. The Braves are 14th out of 15 National League teams in road scoring since August 1, with 3.9 runs per game.
Picks: Cubs -140 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -157 and Total 8.6
8:05 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Rangers starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore has pitched better than his 4.62 ERA would indicate. He averages 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings and has a 3.78 fielding independent. Gore has been much better at home with a 3.36 ERA, with less than one home run allowed per nine innings, compared to a 5.79 road ERA. Red Sox starting pitcher Jake Bennett has allowed at least three runs in seven of his past eight starts, with his ERA ballooning to 3.69, with 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings.
Picks: Rangers Moneyline -115 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -127 and Total 7.9
8:10 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros
While Astros starting pitcher Cristian Javier has a 5.50 ERA overall this season, his 4.58 fielding independent with 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings points toward positivity. He faces a Royals lineup that is last in the league in road scoring at 3.6 runs per game. Royals starting pitcher Daniel Lynch has a 3.52 ERA with 0.8 home runs and 2.8 walks per nine innings. Lynch faces an Astros lineup that ranks 19th in scoring at home with 4.3 runs per game.
Pick: Royals vs. Astros Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3
9:38 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby is getting a career-low 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings this season, but has been better than his 4.25 ERA. His fielding independent is 3.85 with 1.1 home runs and 2.1 walks per nine innings. Kirby faces an Angels lineup that, since the All-Star Break, is last in scoring with less than 3.5 runs per game. Angels starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi owns a 4.75 ERA and a 4.20 fielding independent, with 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Kikuchi enters having allowed three total runs across 17 innings in his past three starts.
Pick: Mariners vs. Angels Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.8
