UFC 332 Predictions:
Salt Lake City hosts this week’s UFC 332, a 13-fight slate scheduled for early prelims at 1 p.m. PT, prelims at 3 p.m. PT, and the main card at 5 p.m. PT.
As is becoming the case with these fight cards, favorites opening at -250 or higher comprised seven of the 13 bouts, making the investment in underdogs difficult. Favorites are running just under 70% this year in the UFC.
Seven bouts will also be waged at Welterweight (170 pounds) and above, where the finishing rates are premium, so the anticipation is that violence is on the menu for 332.
Last week, Brazilian banger Elves Brener finished a tough journeyman fighter in Josiah Harrell, propelling this column’s profitability to 20-15-1 +7.82u.
Let’s keep the momentum rolling!
Natalia Silva -210 vs. Wang Cong -180
Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds) Championship
Women’s flyweight stalwart Valentina Shevchenko relinquished her title to allow the division to evolve while she overcomes a recent physical setback.
Competing for the vacated title are number-one-ranked Brazilian fighter Natalia Silva, Shevchenko’s original opponent, and China’s sixth-ranked flyweight contender, Wang Cong, who steps in on short notice.
Cong is 10-1 professionally and after having earned entry into the UFC via the Contender Series. Cong carries Sanda, kickboxing, and boxing expertise into the fight. While she has a couple of finishes and two submissions over the moderate talent she has faced, Cong has little power in her strikes and steps up aggressively to take this opportunity.
Cong has earned a 5-1 record with wins over mid-level talent in the division, as well as a submission loss early in her UFC tenure to Brazilian Gabriella Fernandes, a mixed martial artist with nominal grappling prowess.
Cong enters this fight knowing that Ms. Silva, her opponent on Saturday, is far more dangerous than the mid-level opponents she has faced coming into this battle.
The number one contender in the division is Silva, so rather than compete against Shevchenko, she gets Cong. Brazilian Silva holds an abundance of mixed martial arts weaponry, as she is a Purple belt in Taekwondo and a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
For Silva, this title opportunity means more than who she is competing against. With a win, she will be given her chance at Shevchenko.
Silva, 29, has faced far tougher competition than the 34-year-old Cong. She arrives at this fight understanding the opportunity winning provides, and she arrives off a full fight camp.
Once this fight begins, it will be the typical two flyweights battling each other in a barrel. The large cage, coupled with small ladies and adroit characteristics, often spells a 25-minute decision.
In this fight, I look for Silva to come out immediately as the aggressor to show the fans watching, as well as Cong herself, in the simplest terms, Cong is not quite ready for a fight of this stature and magnitude.
Catching Silva, who opened at -250, anywhere near the -200 mark spells serious advantage in my judgment.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -300
Johnny Walker -145 vs. Mick Parkin +125
Heavyweight (265 pounds)
This is a “Don’t judge the book by the cover” fight.
Johnny Walker is a six-foot-five, madly athletic mixed martial artist decorated with a brown belt in BJJ.
Walker is uber-aggressive. His combination of height, reach and footwork makes him the more athletic, faster and powerful fighter in almost every fight he has taken since he has arrived in the UFC.
Walker is at home and most dangerous standing and competing from distance, but his whole body of work has been competing against light-heavyweights.
Saturday, Walker steps up to the heavyweight division for a tussle against an English bloke who has accrued a 4-1 tally against moderate UFC heavyweight competition.
What is paradoxical in this fight is that Walker must, and I say must, protect his ‘Achilles’ heel,’ which is his fragile chin, for Walker has a balsa wood beak.
He’s been dusted by less powerful light heavyweights than he’ll face Saturday against heavyweight Parkin, a man who will enter the cage at a minimum of 265 pounds.
Walker will be the faster, more adroit athlete in the cage. However, if he is not focused and tries to stand power shot to power shot with Parkin, he may well be crumpled.
Parkin arrives to this fight off a loss to journeyman Marcin Tybura, but the fact that Parkin is well-rounded, carries power, and has tasted the effect of heavyweight strikes/kicks tells me that Parkin should not be judged by his body type. Rather, Parkin should be viewed as a most dangerous opponent for Walker.
Walker will be greased lighting early in this fight. However, should it transpire into the second round, Walker will need to ensure that he does not allow Parkin to back him up with pressure, enter the pocket, or, for that matter, capture the clasp. Any inside fighting or grappling/wrestling will favor the naturally larger Parkin.
Johnny Walker opened +157 for this fight and has been bet to current pricing of Walker -145!
Walker, who benefited from his last two fights, is being overestimated by the marketplace here. He is a fighter one wants to consider when he is priced as the underdog because Walker the favorite…. is a load.
UFC 332 Best Bet: Mick Parkin +125
Total in this fight: 1.5 Over -200
Strong lean Over
On Friday, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all Podcast platforms and on GambLou.com. Catch all my final releases there! Enjoy the battles, and thank you for reading!
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