MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update:
The 2026 MLB regular season has concluded and to put it mildly, our Bullpen Systems went out with a bang! We had an incredible last two weeks of the season in almost every metric we track on a regular basis. In fact, when the EASIEST angle produces over 30 units of profit in a two-week span and profits in 11 of the season’s final 12 days, you can rest assured everything else probably did well. That is exactly what happened, and hopefully even with the football season in full swing, you stuck around to take advantage.
We are now entering the postseason, where the system records are no longer officially tracked, but believe me, anyone who knows playoff baseball knows there is probably nothing as critical as bullpens when it comes to winning games and advancing through the bracket. Speaking of which, I put a ranking together below of the 12 postseason teams and how ready their bullpens are for success over the next month. Read on as I wrap up another great baseball betting season using bullpen logic and share the highlights from the last two weeks.
In this final Bullpen Systems Update of the year, I also wanted to address a question a reader asked about how I can talk positively about a system that eventually finished at -49.61 units for the season. The answer is simple. My logic is that betting better bullpen teams is almost always the better option. It is a nice play to start any day’s wagering routine. For this season, it lost -49.61 units but was -2.4% on ROI. Based on the very public and juiced lines I track from DraftKings, this -2.4% return produced a 5.7% advantage over the average baseball loss for betting just about every game. Simply put, even in a down year like this for the EASIEST system, it still gave bettors a significant edge over novice baseball bettors. Do I suggest betting every game the system produces? No, but it is a good starter or a good confirmation tool
As I indicated above, the EASIEST system was on fire to close the regular season, going 98-65 for +30.08 units over the last two weeks. It was the second straight season that we finished on a massive hot streak. Perhaps bullpen depth and late-season talent matter; who would’ve thought? Oh, that’s right, me and anyone who reads this series regularly! In any case, in the last 12 regular-season days, the EASIEST system produced profits in all but one, and that is highlighted below: a day that featured just three games on the schedule. Here are the day-by-day results for the last 12 days:
Thursday, September 17, 2026: 7-2 +4.4 units – ROI: +48.9%
Friday, September 18, 2026: 7-5 +1.32 units – ROI: +11.0%
Saturday, September 19, 2026: 11-4 +6.54 units – ROI: +43.6%
Sunday, September 20, 2026: 9-4 +5.98 units – ROI: +46.0%
Monday, September 21, 2026: 1-2 -1.2 units – ROI: -40.0%
Tuesday, September 22, 2026: 7-6 +0.34 units – ROI: +2.6%
Wednesday, September 23, 2026: 8-6 +1.67 units – ROI: +11.9%
Thursday, September 24, 2026: 7-4 +4.32 units – ROI: +39.3%
Friday, September 25, 2026: 9-6 +2.79 units – ROI: +18.6%
Saturday, September 26, 2026: 8-4 +3.53 units – ROI: +29.4%
Sunday, September 27, 2026: 6-6 +0.38 units – ROI: +3.2%
Since the last MLB Bullpen Systems update two weeks ago, the results of the more detailed systems have been phenomenal. With that said, before I present all of the updated system numbers, here are some of the best highlights from the last two weeks:
– Correlation system #3, the one indicating to back teams with elite starters AND bullpens performed remarkably over the L4 weeks, going 62-25 for +26.14 units. Although this one was a little slower than usual this season, it is based in a solid foundation that the combination of great starting and relief pitching proved worth investing in again.
– Our big FADE CORRELATION system angles, 1, 2, and 4, have all continued to thrive, and each is at least -8.6% ROI for the year. If you consider the average loss percentage is about 8.1%, playing each of these angles has proven advantageous for the season. For the last two weeks, #2 lost -5.86 units, and #4 dropped by -9.7 units.
– Big overpriced favorites with a bullpen edge and 19% or better winning percentage went 9-0 down the stretch.
– Small favorites of -106 to -126 with better SM Bullpen Ratings finished the season in strong fashion, going 17-7 for +9 units over the last two weeks. This system was a big winner for bettors this year, producing over +44 units of profit.
– Hopefully you have noticed it long before this article, but “Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks”. This system has been incredibly reliable this season, in both the 2-game & 3-game thresholds. On 2-game winning streaks, worse bullpen teams finished on a skid of 10-21 for -13.1 units!
– Better bullpen teams also snuffed out losing streaks quickly down the stretch as that system rallied for a 9-2, +8.35 units last two weeks surge to finish the season the black at over +3.5 units of profit.
We have had an amazing run since the All-Star Break for almost every system we provide daily in our MLB Analytics Reports. I trust that if you are reading this piece, you are also utilizing those daily gold mines to your advantage too.
As I indicated earlier, I promised a personal ranking detailing which teams’ bullpens are most and least ready for the postseason. Here they are, with a lot of consideration given to the last 20 game stats and league-wide ranks, which are shown below…
Rank, Team: IP (Rk), ERA (Rk), WHIP (Rk), K/9 (Rk), HR’s (Rk), W-L (Rk), Sv (Rk), BlSv (Rk)
1. LA DODGERS: 83 (15), 2.49 (3), 1.05 (3), 11.17 (1), 6 (4), 6-2 (75.0%) (5), 6 (8), 3 (16)
2. CLEVELAND: 89 (22), 2.73 (4), 1.01 (2), 10.62 (3), 9 (11), 9-2 (81.8%) (3), 6 (8), 4 (20)
3. BOSTON: 68.3 (3), 1.71 (1), 1.2 (9), 10.27 (4), 2 (1), 4-3 (57.1%) (15), 7 (5), 1 (1)
4. TAMPA BAY: 72.7 (7), 3.1 (7), 1.14 (5), 9.29 (14), 10 (15), 5-3 (62.5%) (10), 3 (28), 3 (16)
5. MILWAUKEE: 92 (26), 3.82 (14), 1.2 (8), 8.71 (16), 10 (16), 9-4 (69.2%) (6), 10 (2), 3 (16)
6. ATLANTA: 75.7 (12), 4.16 (17), 1.14 (4), 8.21 (21), 17 (30), 6-4 (60.0%) (13), 5 (10), 1 (1)
7. SAN DIEGO: 82 (14), 4.17 (18), 1.31 (18), 9.55 (13), 9 (12), 8-1 (88.9%) (1), 8 (3), 2 (7)
8. CHICAGO CUBS: 74 (9), 3.28 (8), 1.28 (15), 7.42 (29), 8 (10), 3-6 (33.3%) (25), 5 (10), 4 (20)
9. NY YANKEES: 69.7 (5), 3.62 (10), 1.46 (24), 8.01 (23), 11 (21), 4-3 (57.1%) (17), 5 (10), 1 (1)
10. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 108.7 (30), 3.73 (12), 1.25 (12), 7.79 (24), 14 (25), 6-5 (54.5%) (19), 4 (18), 4 (20)
11. HOUSTON: 90 (25), 4.3 (20), 1.19 (7), 8.3 (20), 15 (27), 5-6 (45.5%) (21), 4 (18), 5 (26)
12. PHILADELPHIA: 65.3 (1), 6.06 (30), 1.7 (30), 9.78 (7), 10 (14), 2-5 (28.6%) (29), 3 (28), 2 (7)
A few notes on the above rankings and stats. First, the Philadelphia, Boston, and New York bullpens are easily the freshest right now in terms of workload lately. Whether or not that is beneficial for a team like the Phillies is debatable. On the other hand, Boston/s bullpen has been very good down the stretch and should have an edge on any team it faces in the playoffs. The Dodgers and Guardians might be the best performing bullpens lately, however. In fact, Cleveland’s 9-2 won-lost mark in the late innings helped it clinch the division title. Milwaukee has played with the most leads and thus the top save number. On the other hand, Houston’s inability to hold leads almost cost the Astros a playoff berth. It should be an exciting postseason to watch and wager once again.
Without further ado, here are the various system records at the conclusion of the 2026 regular season. We will be continuing to offer these systems on the MLB Analytics Reports for the entirety of the postseason, although all of the records you see are based solely on regular season results. I do believe the principles still apply.
The EASIEST way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 regular season, better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20, went 1138-1004 for +0.15 units and an ROI of 0%. For 2026, this easy system underperformed by recent standards but had a huge post-All-Star break run to close the season and finished at 1113-975 in all for -49.61 units, and an ROI of -2.4%.
This ROI loss still outperforms the average bettor loss for playing every game, which finished at -8.1% this season. That is an “advantage” of 5.7% simply by taking the team with a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating every game. Furthermore, we are winning 53.3% of our games. That said, betting almost EVERY game is a tough strategy regardless. Even with the “advantage”, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for bigger edges, and at this point I can’t honestly advise playing every game on the easiest system. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. THIS is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles were new to the bullpen analysis around mid-season 2025. I named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the final 2026 season records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking and will continue to do so into next year:
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in ‘25. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a GO AGAINST angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams went 68-59 for -10.97 units for an ROI of -8.6%.
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. For the 2026 season, these teams again struggled, 99-143 for -48.65 units and an ROI of -20.1%! Fading these teams continues to produce, and this was one of our most consistent angles this season.
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams got off to a slow start but roared back in the season’s final month, ending the campaign with a record of 318-216 for +8.23 units and an ROI of +1.5%.
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they finished 164-253 for -35.82 units (-8.6% ROI) after losing about 46 units over the final three months.
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For ’26, these teams are just above the profitability line at 219-178 for +0.13 units, but at +0.03% ROI, still WAY better than the average loss.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record was 116-62 for -22.06 units, ROI -12.4%!
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria were 53-22 for -0.73 units after a perfect 9-0 run the final two weeks.
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle has been a lucrative fade system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams finished 45-27 for -16.01 units, and an ROI of -22.2%!
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season was slower than usual, 336-405 for -20.73 units, ROI -2.8%. – Again, even at -2.8%, it is still a massive edge over the average -8.1% loss.
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
In the 2026 regular season, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026, these teams finished 265-187 for +44.33 units, an ROI of +9.8%!
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they went 192-235 for -57.88 units (ROI -13.6%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results showed a record of 87-112 for -25.54 units and a solid ROI of -12.8%.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full ’25 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We continued to track this angle in 2026, and it finished 174-198 for +4.79 units. We may give this angle one more try in 2027 to see if it really has merit.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025, and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It is on the 2026 Bullpen System Reports once again, and it finished with a regular season record of 209-164 for -14.65 units. As you can see, it has been a wildly inconsistent system.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results showed teams qualifying for it with a record of 122-100 for +3.71 units (ROI +1.7%). This angle also gained solid momentum after the break, however, including 26-9 for +19.93 units over the last six weeks.
Again, these simple angles that can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
These are the key bullpen stats accumulated in the 2026 regular season, followed by my current 2026 Bullpen Power Ratings, adjusted this week for performance. Along with that, I’ve listed the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams from last week to this.
Key Bullpen Stats (2026 FINAL regular season stats)
Top 6 Bullpen ERAs
1. BOSTON: 3.02
2. NY YANKEES: 3.21
3. MILWAUKEE: 3.39
4. ATLANTA: 3.46
5. SAN DIEGO: 3.53
6. CLEVELAND: 3.54
Worst 6 Bullpen ERAs
30. ATHLETICS: 5.44
29. KANSAS CITY: 5.07
28. WASHINGTON: 4.96
27. COLORADO: 4.8
26. MINNESOTA: 4.74
25. CINCINNATI: 4.69
Top 6 Bullpen WHIPs
1. BOSTON: 1.17
2. ATLANTA: 1.19
3. TAMPA BAY: 1.2
4. NY YANKEES: 1.22
5. MILWAUKEE: 1.23
6. LA DODGERS: 1.24
Worst 6 Bullpen WHIPs
30. KANSAS CITY: 1.53
29. ATHLETICS: 1.51
28. MINNESOTA: 1.49
27. WASHINGTON: 1.46
26. COLORADO: 1.46
25. CINCINNATI: 1.44
Top 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. CLEVELAND: 10.21
2. LA DODGERS: 9.99
3. PHILADELPHIA: 9.84
4. LA ANGELS: 9.79
5. PITTSBURGH: 9.58
6. SAN DIEGO: 9.35
Worst 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. COLORADO: 7.55
29. SAN FRANCISCO: 7.55
28. KANSAS CITY: 7.57
27. WASHINGTON: 7.62
26. TEXAS: 7.85
25. ARIZONA: 7.85
Top 6 Bullpen WHIPs Last 7 Games
1. LA DODGERS: 0.71
2. MILWAUKEE: 0.86
3. MINNESOTA: 0.97
4. ATLANTA: 1.02
5. BOSTON: 1.06
6. TORONTO: 1.06
Worst 6 Bullpen WHIPs Last 7 Games
30. LA ANGELS: 2.08
29. ATHLETICS: 2
28. KANSAS CITY: 1.71
27. NY YANKEES: 1.67
26. ARIZONA: 1.63
25. PHILADELPHIA: 1.6
I have used a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, momentum, and even manager strength of usage.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday (9/21):
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. BOSTON: +9 points
1. LA DODGERS: +9
3. WASHINGTON: +8
4. ST LOUIS: +7
5. MINNESOTA: +6
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. LA ANGELS: -12 points
2. SAN DIEGO: -8
3. ARIZONA: -7
3. ATHLETICS: -7
5. ATLANTA: -4
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 9/28)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. BOSTON: 38
2. MILWAUKEE: 32
3. CLEVELAND: 30
4. LA DODGERS: 28
5. TAMPA BAY: 25
6. SAN DIEGO: 23
7. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 21
8. NY YANKEES: 20
9. TORONTO: 19
10. ATLANTA: 18
11. BALTIMORE: 18
12. HOUSTON: 17
13. PITTSBURGH: 15
14. NY METS: 12
15. DETROIT: 12
16. CHICAGO CUBS: 5
17. ARIZONA: 5
18. MIAMI: 3
19. MINNESOTA: 2
20. PHILADELPHIA: -5
21. CINCINNATI: -5
22. SAN FRANCISCO: -10
23. COLORADO: -10
24. SEATTLE: -11
25. LA ANGELS: -12
26. ATHLETICS: -17
27. ST LOUIS: -18
28. TEXAS: -21
29. WASHINGTON: -22
30. KANSAS CITY: -22
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
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