UFC Abu Dhabi Predictions:
Welcome fight enthusiasts to the VSiN digital breakdown for UFC Fight Night Abu Dhabi. This card from the UAE kicks off at 9 a.m. PT with preliminary fights, then the main card drops at 12 p.m. PT, so prepare accordingly for a morning full of maulings.
This Fight Night slate features 12 bouts. The athletes will compete in the large 30-foot cage, and background noise will be prevalent as a raucous Saudi crowd will jam into the arena to take in the violence.
There is but one women’s fight on this card, which is notable because it is a rarity to get a female fight when the organization travels to the UAE.
Six of our twelve bouts feature men weighing 170 pounds and above. If the trend of the last couple of weeks remains intact, then this card too should produce a flurry of frenetic finishes.
Fewer aged athletes are participating in this week’s slate than in the past couple of fight cards. There are only four fighters aged 35 and above. Furthermore, the age spreads on this card have tightened considerably, as there are only three fights where an age gap of more than five years exists. Again, a six-year youth advantage equates to a 64% win percentage among UFC fight enthusiasts.
Last week, I captured excellent value in the Dan Ige -175 release as he closed -220. However, capturing the best of the number is only one aspect of realizing bottom-line profitability in sports gaming. The most important aspect, however, is having the appropriate fighter perform at their best. While Ige performed well, his opponent performed better and earned victory. Such is the fight game.
Digital results to date stand: 14-17 -3.32u
It’s time to make a run!
Robert Whittaker -135 vs. Reinier de Ridder +115
Middleweight (185 pounds) main event
De Ridder, three fights into his UFC career, enters this main event ranked 12th in the division and off three victories against modestly talented UFC competition.
A decorated, world-class grappler with only decent striking acumen, de Ridder, a black belt in both Judo and BJJ will be efficient in trying to clasp onto his opponent in this (or any) matchup, then begin to envelope them with his strength and judo experience.
De Ridder’s striking is base; the snap on his strikes and his ability to evade strikes are negligible, save for the force by which he rushes opponents to envelope his limbs around them and drag them to the mat.
De Ridder’s plan in every fight is to press his opponent against the fence, maul them down to the mat, then gain top position in order to snap a limb, choke the neck, or play the ground-and-pound game.
This will be the de Ridder blueprint for success as well as the blueprint for his survival because if he is unable to wrangle Whittaker to the canvas, then he is likely to be pieced up by the forceful punches, kicks, elbows, and knees of Whittaker.
Aside from a loss to the current champion, Duplessis, in late 2023, Whittaker has defeated all other middleweight threats over the course of the last several years, until he faced the formidable grappling talent of Khamzat Chimaev in his last battle.
Against the world-class grappling pressure applied by Chimaev, Whittaker looked lost and overwhelmed. In a short time, Chimaev grounded Whittaker, then ‘neck cranked’ him into submission.
When this fight begins, Whittaker will need to guard against the immediate/aggressive forward pressing onslaught that will come from de Ridder, as it is a certainty that de Ridder has studied the Chimaev vs. Whittaker tape.
De Ridder will take every measure he can to duplicate Chimaev’s diligent forward pressing aggression, his takedown effectiveness, and submission prowess to negate Whittaker’s striking dominance. Simultaneously, he will try to force the striker to expend energy defending takedowns, rather than unleashing a barrage of punches on the Dutchman.
The foundation question for this fight is simply this: Can Whittaker stop the groundings and keep this fight on the feet?
Where this bout takes place will be absolutely proportionate to who is in control. On the feet, de Ridder will have little for Whittaker. On the ground in a grovel, it will be difficult for Whittaker to compete with the elite grappling talent that is Renier de Ridder despite the fact that Whittaker’s wrestling is competent.
Whittaker opened -180 for this fight, and the money to date has flowed in on the challenger.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds pick ’em
Shara Magomedov -300 vs. Marc-Andre Barriault +250
Middleweight (185 pounds)
Magomedov is a Dagestani fighter who lost an eye sometime during his fighting career. He is a wildly popular fighter in the Muslim world, but doesn’t compete much outside of his region.
When he does compete, it is usually against an opponent hand-chosen and designed to provide him with the type of fight that fans wish to see—a stand-up battle.
In Magomedov’s last bout, they gave him an athletic, fleet-footed and experienced striker in Michael Page. Page painted the slower, more deliberate Magomedov’s fence in a one-sided decision.
Stand-up fights provide Magomedov not only a fight he can compete in but one he is likely to win. Magomedov is relatively slow and susceptible to left hands/kicks because his right eye is nonfunctional, and he can gas as the fight wears on. He just needs pedestrian competition. Anyone close to elite will paint this man’s fence.
While Magomedov’s appearance may make him look ominous, his fight arsenal is enough to intimidate few competent athletes in the division.
For this fight, the UFC hand-picked a large, slow, hittable fellow striker to compete against Magomedov. That Canadian fighter’s name is Marc-Andre Barriault, an athlete willing to share the cage with the local favorite and try to springboard up the rankings by earning victory over the local Dagestani fighter.
Barriault, primarily a durable, tough power striker who carries a blue belt in BJJ into his fights, arrives off a win against Brazilian Bruno Silva after having dropped his last three bouts.
Two of those losses were via the KO, so it seems clear to me that in this matchup, the UFC designed this confrontation to provide Magomedov with a favorable opponent, but an opponent that is relatively stationary and one that will be there for him to batter, much to the delight of the crowd in attendance. This appears to be a fight matched to enhance Magomedov’s chances of success.
Total in this fight stands 1.5 Rds Over -160
Asu Almabayev -110 vs. Jose Ochoa -110
Flyweight (125 pounds)
Ochoa, a power striker from Peru, is 1-1 in the UFC. He is aggressive, athletic, and willing to enter the firestorm for striking exchanges at any time.
He is undefeated save for a decision loss to Lone’er Kavanagh, his debut fight in the UFC. Ochoa followed that loss with a very impressive finish win over the durable Cody Durden in his last bout.
In Almabayev, we have a talented, world-class grappler/wrestler from Kazakhstan. Almabayev is well equipped on the feet, and his well-rounded fight arsenal sets him up to be a viable contender in the division for years to come.
Entering this fight off a loss to Manel Kape is no embarrassment for Almabayev. Rather, it is a badge of honor for Kape. When he competes like he did in his battle against Almabayev, he is clearly the top threat to current champion Alexandre Pantoja.
When this fight opened, it was Almabayev who came the -400 chalk. While that is a high number, the fact that he was favored is what we need to take from the opener.
In fleeting time, Ochoa was bet hard into the current pricing on this fight, which stands at pick ’em.
Ochoa’s striking is stellar, and his strike defense is also above par. Still, his wrestling is quite lacking, especially given the competition he’s faced. His takedown defense stands at 66%.
In this fight, Almabayev will navigate Ochoa into the second round and beyond by mixing in takedowns and effective striking. He will journey the 24-year-old into the later minutes of this fight where his wrestling acumen and cardio will be able to turn the tide on the frontrunning Peruvian puncher.
The value on Almabayev, who had decimated four opponents prior to fighting Kape, is too much for me to overlook here. Ochoa is ripe, and Almabayev has too much experience and wrestling ability for this fight to be lined as it is.
UFC Abu Dhabi Best Bet: Asu Almabayev -110 2u
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -185
On Friday morning, the ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop only at GambLou.com. Get my final releases for the card there. Thank you for reading. Enjoy the fights from Abu Dhabi!
