UFC Predictions for Cannonier vs. Borralho:
VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess offers his UFC Fight Night best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 4-7 (-2.77 units, -23.47%)
Article History: 78-102 (-10.15 Units, -5.14% ROI)
PICK EM HISTORY
Last Week: 7-5 (58.33%)
Article History: 153-116 (56.88%)
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Jared “Killa Gorilla” Cannonier (+210) vs Caio “The Natural” Borralho (-258)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-110) | Under 4.5 Rounds (-120)
Jared Cannonier is one of the most interesting success stories in the last decade of the UFC. He debuted in the organization on January 23rd, 2015, as a heavyweight. He was knocked out. He came back and fought another heavyweight and won via KO. He realized his prospects were limited in that division, so he moved down to light heavyweight. He was still small at just 5’11 and went 2-3 before finally finding his rightful division as a middleweight, where he started 3-0 and is now 7-3 at 185 pounds. His three losses were to champion Israel Adesanya, eventual champion Robert Whittaker, and soon-to-be title challenger Nassourdine Imavov (most likely). He has defeated a host of top ten fighters and has almost always been the more powerful fighter when he stepped in the cage, including when he was fighting in heavier weight classes.
Cannonier did not jump to the UFC until he was nearly 30 years old, and now he is approaching a decade in the organization and is over 40. He has fought off Father Time as well as anyone, but his last fight showed some indications of losing his fastball. He was knocked out by Nassourdine Imavov in the fourth round while getting hit with nearly 20 more significant strikes than landing and being taken down twice. That was his first time getting finished as a middleweight, and that fight took place just two months ago. At 40, Cannonier does not have time to wait for the perfect opponent. He needs to take whatever fights the UFC offers if he wants to have a chance to fight for a title before his storied career ends.
Caio Borralho is 16-1(1 NC) as a professional and 6-0 in the UFC. The lone loss came in his second professional bout. He is currently on a 15-fight winning streak. Four of his UFC victories have come via decision, with one victory via submission and another via knockout in his last time in the cage. He is a very talented fighter and generally avoids taking risks, which is why he has put together such an immaculate record. Outside of his UFC debut, he has been a favorite of -210 or more every time he enters the cage. Part of that has to do with facing opponents with real holes in their game, but the other part is that Borralho is very good. He has a 60% significant strike accuracy rate and a 60% significant strike defense rate, but in general, his fights contain relatively little striking. He lands two takedowns every 15 minutes in the cage, which is the real key to him avoiding getting hit. His wrestling is always a threat.
Cannonier, even at age 40, is the bigger striking threat. He was beaten by Imavov, but he was able to land enough for two judges to give him two rounds on their scorecards before he lost in the fourth round. Imavov is also an excellent wrestler and has quicker hands than Borralho, so it is hard to say that this fight will play out like Cannonier’s fight in June. That said, the takedown defense rate of Cannonier is a bit concerning, he only stops 61% of his opponents attempts to take the fight to the ground. Borralho will try to close distance, engage in the clinch and get top position on Cannonier. When it comes to strength of schedule, Borralho is nowhere close to Canonier, and the older fighter has seen much more threatening competition. Additionally, this is Borralho’s first scheduled five-round bout since fighting in the “Future MMA” promotion in October of 2020. This will be Cannonier’s fifth consecutive main event contest.
FIGHT WINNER: Caio Borralho
UFC BEST BET: Caio Borralho Over 2.5 takedowns landed (-135), Risk 1.35 Units to Win 1
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Angela “Overkill” Hill (+114) vs Tabatha “Baby Shark” Ricci (-135)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-600) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+390)
Angela Hill is a 39-year-old with a 12-13 record in the UFC. She has only been in the organization for eight years, bringing credence to the saying, “The best ability is availability.” She was probably on the verge of exiting the organization in 2022. She was on a three-fight losing streak and had lost five of six fights dating back to 2020. However, she turned a corner late in her career and is now 4-1 in her last five fights while being the underdog in three wins. Her best attribute in the cage is her activity level. She doesn’t gas and tries to find a way until the final bell. She lands 5.38 significant strikes per minute in the cage and avoids 61% of the attempts returning her way. Twenty of her 25 UFC fights have reached the final bell.
Tabatha Ricci is 29 years old, 10-2 as a pro, and 5-2 in the UFC. She is a less accurate striker than Hill and gets hit slightly more each minute in the cage, but she has a definite grappling advantage on paper. As a favorite, she is 5-0 in the organization and 0-2 as an underdog. That said, her strength of schedule pales in comparison compared to the opponents Hill has faced. Additionally, I do not think Ricci will be as successful getting takedowns versus Hill as she has been against some of her less pedigreed opponents.
FIGHT WINNER: Angela Hill
UFC BEST BET: Angela Hill (+114) vs Ricci, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.14
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Ryan “Man of Steel” Loder (+136) vs Robert “Robzilla” Valentin (-162)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+124) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-160)
Ryan Loder is making his UFC debut with just a 6-1 professional but the chance to win The Ultimate Fighter Season 32 middleweight championship. His path to this final included submission and unanimous decision wins. Prior to participating in TUF, four of his six wins came via knockout, and his one loss came on the judges’ scorecards via split decision while fighting in Urijah Faber’s A1 Combat. Watching film on this fighter, it is clear that he likes to grapple and punish his opponents from a dominant position.
The other middleweight fighter in this TUF championship is the Swiss-born Robert Valentin. He is 10-3 as a professional but has fought in slightly better organizations than anything Loder has been a part of. Valentin reached the final with a knockout and a submission victory. Overall, I am always going to lean towards the fighter who has seen better competition when there are so many unknowns.
FIGHT WINNER: Robert Valentin
UFC BEST BET: Pass
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Kaan “Genghis” Ofli (+164) vs Mairon “A Lenda” Santos (-198)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-238) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+180)
Kaan Olfi is fighting for The Ultimate Fighter Season 32 Featherweight tournament championship. He has never faced UFC-level competition but has fought in a few organizations that have consistently sent talent to the UFC, including Brave CF, UAE Warriors, and Hex Fight Series. On his way to the finals, he won via unanimous decision and submission and is 11-2-1 in professional bouts. He has five submission wins and one knockout. Both of his losses have come on the judges’ scorecards.
Marion Santos is a 13-1 fighter who earned a 1-1 record in LFA before joining The Ultimate Fighter roster. His LFA loss came to Dan Argueta, who has lasted five fights in the UFC. He is just 24 years old and has the potential to build a financially solid career if he takes care of business here. Seven of his victories have come via KO, and the other six came on the scorecards. Additionally, he had a scheduled fight with Sean Woodson on a UFC card last August, but visa issues prevented the bout from taking place. His two wins in The Ultimate Fighter have come on the scorecards, including one via split.
FIGHT WINNER: Mairon Santos
UFC BEST BET: Pass
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Michael Morales (-900) vs Neil “Haitian Sensation” Magny (+600)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-180) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+140)
Michael Morales is a perfect 16-0 and just 25 years old. He is 4-0 in the UFC and has already beaten welterweight veterans Jake Matthews, Max Griffin, and Trevin Giles. Eleven of his pro victories have come via knockout, including two in the UFC. His other four victories have come via decision. He is known for his crisp striking, but he is also at least a semi-willing grappler if the opportunity presents itself. Overall, he lands a solid 5.28 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.6. He has landed at least 18 more significant strikes than every UFC opponent he has faced, including his fight versus Trevin Giles that lasted just four minutes and six seconds.
Neil Magny is a veteran and should never be taken for granted. This line is eye-popping, especially considering he won his last time out via third-round KO as a +300 underdog versus Mike Mallot (he was 11/1 to win via knockout, 45/1 to win via third-round knockout). Those types of odds are not easily repeatable. He lost as +380 underdog in his previous fight versus Ian Machado Garry. The 37-year-old Magny is best when he can make the fight dirty. His clinch can frustrate the best fighters in the world, and his gas tank never runs out. Dating back to 2013 he has five finishes in the third round, he also has four wins via split decision further signifying his ability to make things dirty and find a way to get his hand raised while making moves during the fight’s key moments.
That said, Morales has legitimate skill, and I would personally put him closer to Ian Garry than Mike Mallot. Morales showed the ability to win in 15 minutes against a game opponent in his last fight, and he is not one you expect to gas himself out chasing a finish.
FIGHT WINNER: Michael Morales
UFC BEST BET: Morales to Win via Decision (-105, FanDuel), Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1
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Edmen “The Golden Boy” Shahbazyan (-345) vs Gerald “GM3” Meerschaert (+275)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+105) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-135)
Edmen Shahbazyan has had more ups and downs in the UFC than most 26-year-olds. His career began with mostly highlight finishes, but eventually, his opponents realized he could beat on the ground and didn’t necessarily have the best conditioning to win late in fights. He is 6-4 in the organization but potentially turning a corner as he is 2-1 in his last three fights. He may also be beating up subpar competition, as he was a -205 favorite and -305 favorite in both victories. He still can unleash a highlight finish at any moment. Still, he is also susceptible to getting sloppy, getting into bad positions, and letting an opponent come from behind and finish the fight.
Gerald Meerschaert is an old-school, one-trick pony. He is terrible at striking, has a weak chin, and generally does not move well. But he has eleven wins in the UFC because he is as good of a submission specialist as you will see in the middleweight division. Ten of his UFC victories are via sub. This fight will be determined by where it takes place. If Shahbazyan can keep it standing he will win this fight, probably via knockout, if Meerschaert gets the fight to the ground, he almost immediately becomes the favorite. That said, Shahbazyan can never be trusted to do the right thing and last a full 15 minutes.
FIGHT WINNER: Edmen Shahbazyan
UFC BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below
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Dennis “The Great” Buzukja (+130) vs Francis “Fire” Marshall (-155)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-220) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+170)
This fight features two fighters with questionable ceilings in this organization, and they both have 1-2 records in the UFC. Marshall has been the favorite in all three of his UFC fights, Buzukja was the favorite in his victory and an underdog in his losses. Marshall was the more highly thought of fighter when he entered the octagon. He was undefeated and won his UFC debut with a decisive knockout. Buzukja got his start as a late replacement opponent for Sean Woodson and honorably lost a decision. Buzukja is the better striker, and Marshall is more likely to try to turn this into a grappling affair. I think this fight being lined as a favorite to go to a decision overlooks the numerous holes both of these guys have in their games.
FIGHT WINNER: Francis Marshall
UFC BEST BET: Fight does not go the distance (+145, FanDuel), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.45
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Jose “Chico” Medina (+455) vs Zach “Savage” Reese (-625)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+130) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-166)
Jose Medina is getting a shot despite most recently losing a Contender Series bout as a big underdog (+520) in a fight up a weight class at light heavyweight. He made it to a decision, and that opponent is already 1-0 in the UFC. Medina has potential and is now fighting at middleweight for the first time since 2019. Eight of his 11 professional victories have come via knockout, albeit in mostly lesser organizations.
Zach Reese was a highly touted prospect who entered the UFC with a 6-0 record and a 100% finish rate. He lost via slam in his debut as a -225 to the dregs of the middleweight division, Cody Brundage. However, he rebounded with a first-round knockout of Julian Marquez. Overall, he has never seen the second round in any fight and has only seen the third minute once.
I am hesitant to back someone like Reese, who relies on pure striking power and aggression to win early. Medina is used to striking with bigger opponents, and maybe he will not be ready for Reese’s speed. That said, the opponent’s Medina beat had a combined 37-51 record at the time of their fights.
FIGHT WINNER: Zach Reese
UFC BET: Parlay: Shahbazyan/Meerschaert u2.5 Rounds + Medina/Reese u2.5 Rounds (-147), Risk 1.47 Units to Win 1
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Viacheslav “Slava Claus” Borschev (-218) vs James “Goku” Llontop (+180)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-105) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-125)
Viacheslav Borschev got destroyed in his last fight versus Chase Hooper. Borschev ate 58 significant head strikes before being submitted in the second round. Borschev is an excellent kickboxer and completely lost on the ground; his takedown defense rate is just 35%. He is 2-3-1 in the UFC with both wins coming via knockout, and he has been taken down in all three of his losses.
James Llontop flopped in his UFC debut as a -450 favorite. He missed weight, then lost via rear naked choke at the end of the first round. That said he made the UFC foster for a reason, and his pre-UFC wins often finished the type of highlight KOs the organization values. Both of these fighters are strikers, and they both have very strong chins. That said, there are too many variables for me to have a strong opinion on this fight either way.
FIGHT WINNER: James Llontop
UFC BEST BET: Pass
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Josiane “Josi” Nunes (+190) vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti (-298)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-298) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+220)
Josiane Nunes is a small but mighty women’s bantamweight at just 5’2”, with a 3-1 UFC record and 10-2 record as a pro. Her compact stature means she is usually at a range disadvantage, but her power is good for the division, and her low center of gravity can make her a tough opponent to grapple. At 5’8″, Jacqueline Cavalcanti will look like a giant in the cage next to Nunes. Cavalcanti is 1-0 in the UFC with a win over a common opponent to Nunes, Zarah Fairn. Cavalcanti is 6-1 overall, with the one loss coming to Martina Jindrova in PFL Challenger Series 2022. The expectation in this fight is for Cavalcanti to overwhelm Nunes with strikes, but I am not quite ready to admit it will be as easy as these odds indicate. UFC experience and professional experience are firmly in Nunes’ favor.
FIGHT WINNER: Josiane Nunes
UFC BEST BET: Pass
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Zygimantas Ramaska (+124) vs Nathan Fletcher (-148)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+100) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-130)
Zygimantas Ramaska was a competitor on the most recent season of The Ultimate Fighter, but sustained a face fracture and was unable to continue the tournament after securing a unanimous decision win. Nathan Fletcher was also on this season of The Ultimate Fighter, but lost his first fight to Kaan Ofli via decision. Fletcher is getting this chance because he has an 8-1 record in Cage Warriors, which has fed plenty of fighters to the UFC roster. Ramaska has mostly fought in Eastern European regional organizations that generally lack high-potential talent. These fighters have 17 combined professional wins, with only one reaching the scorecards.
FIGHT WINNER: Nathan Fletcher
UFC BEST BET: Nathan Fletcher to Win Inside the Distance (-105), Risk 1.05 units to Win 1
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Wang “The Joker” Cong (-1200) vs Victoria “Fury” Leonardo (+750)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-210) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+160)
Wang Cong is just 5-0, but the biggest favorite on this fight card. She has a pro kickboxing background and won on Road to UFC via mounted guillotine in the first round. She is making her UFC debut at age 32, so she does not have much time to build her career and needs to make a statement, especially when such a huge favorite. Victoria Leonardo is 1-3 in the UFC with all three losses coming inside the distance. Her one win was against an opponent who is no longer in the organization.
FIGHT WINNER: Wang Cong
UFC BEST BET: Fight to Start Round 3 (-120), Risk 1.2 Units to Win 1
*Listed Odds via DraftKings, bets at other books identified)
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UFC BEST BETS RECAP:
- Caio Borralho Over 2.5 takedowns landed (-135), Risk 1.35 Units to Win 1
- Angela Hill (+114) vs Ricci, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.14
- Morales to Win via Decision (-105, FanDuel), Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1
- Buzukja/Marshall Fight does not go the distance (+145, FanDuel), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.45
- Parlay: Shahbazyan/Meerschaert u2.5 Rounds + Medina/Reese u2.5 Rounds (-147), Risk 1.47 Units to Win 1
- Nathan Fletcher to Win Inside the Distance (-105), Risk 1.05 units to Win 1
- Cong vs. Leonardo Fight to Start Round 3 (-120), Risk 1.2 Units to Win 1
