UFC Fight Night Predictions – Moreno vs. Albazi:
VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess offers his UFC Fight Night best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 1-6 (-5.1 Units, -68.64% ROI)
Article History: 93-146 (-33.88 Units, -12.92% ROI)
Since 2020: 645-610 (+183.27 Units, 10.85% ROI)
PICK EM HISTORY
Last Week: 6-7 (46.15%)
Article History: 204-160 (56.04%)
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Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno (-166) vs Amir “The Prince” Albazi (+140)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-238) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+180)
Brandon Moreno is a great former champion. He and Deiveson Figueiredo made the flyweight division must-watch TV over the course of their four-fight series. He is 9-5-2 in the UFC and has almost exclusively fought the very best in the division. He has a 66% finish rate in victory and has never been finished. His losses have come to current flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja (x2), former champ Deiveson Figueiredo, former title challenger Brandon Royval, and former Bellator Bantamweight Champion Sergio Pettis. He only loses to people with championship pedigree, and right now, that description does not fit Amir Albazi….
Like most championship-caliber fighters, his striking accuracy actually lags behind his significant strike defense rate. However, his subpar 44% striking accuracy rate has everything to do with his strength of schedule and very little to do with Moreno’s actual technical boxing ability. The guy can box and is always in the fight, whether standing or grappling. And grappling is also a major part of his game. He lands nearly two takedowns per fight, and again, this is against some of the best in the business. He also has a legit submission game, with ⅓ of his UFC finishes coming via sub.
Amir Albazi is a high-ceiling prospect who is making his way back into the cage after a very long layoff. He is hungry for this opportunity, so he is willing to fight a future hall of famer like Moreno in his first fight in 17 months. He is 5-0 in the UFC, with his best win coming against the currently surging Kai Kara-France. That was the last time Albazi entered the cage and this “victory” needs perhaps the biggest asterisk in UFC main event history. Simply put, it was a complete robbery, and there is no way to convince me Kara-France didn’t win that fight. Kara-France landed 99 significant strikes to Albazi’s 43. Kara-France landed more significant strikes and more significant head strikes in each of the five rounds. Albazi was just 1/9 on takedown attempts and was taken down on both of Kara-France’s takedown attempts. Nineteen of 21 media members on MMADecisions.com gave the fight to Kara-France. But for whatever reason, the judges gave Albazi victory via a split decision.
Despite fighting fairly weak competition outside of Kara-France, Albazi’s striking metrics are abysmal, less than three significant strikes landed per minute and a sub 40% accuracy rate. Opponents rarely attempt takedowns on Albazi, but when they do they have had success landing a combined three in five attempts.
The only thing stopping Brandon Moreno from winning this fight is his commitment to getting back to the top of the organization. If he is fully focused on Albazi, he presents a combination of striking and grappling danger that Albazi has not yet faced.
FIGHT WINNER: Brandon Moreno
UFC BEST BET: Brandon Moreno (-166) vs Albazi, Risk 1.66 Units to Win 1 Unit
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Rose “Thug Rose” Namajunas (+120) vs Erin Blanchfield (-142)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-270) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+200)
Rose Namajunas is another future hall of famer who is acting as the gatekeeper for an up-and-comer with a gaudy record. Rose is the former strawweight champion and is an ambassador for women’s martial arts. She is 11-5 in the UFC, eight of her fights have been against UFC champions, and she has been in six title fights. After losing her strawweight belt to Carla Esparza, Namajunas moved up to women’s flyweight. She lost a decision to Manon Fiorot, who is absolutely huge for the division, undefeated in the UFC, and on the shortlist for a title shot. After the rough welcome to the division, Namajunas has taken care of business versus veterans Amanda Ribas and Tracy Cortez. In both of those fights, she led the dance with her striking, and versus Cortez, she was able to get her grappling going.
Erin Blanchfield was a popular pick to be the next women’s flyweight title challenger before she stumbled as a favorite versus Manon Fiorot. Prior to that, she was 6-0 in the UFC and had been dominant with grappling and very active striking. I am going out on a limb here and saying Erin Blanchfield is a fraud and not as good as the fighter who is being sold to us. Her striking is active but basic. Her grappling is relentless but not necessarily efficient. I did not buy her as a favorite vs Manon Fiorot, and I do not buy her as a favorite versus a legend. Namajunas has gotten into trouble with her takedown defense in specific matchups but Erin Blanchfield’s grappling profile is actually quite similar to that of Tracy Cortez. Namajunas had no problem solving that puzzle.
I do not believe in Blanchfield, and I think she is a long way from deserving of the title shot that was recently in her sights.
FIGHT WINNER: Rose Namajunas
UFC BEST BET: Rose Namajunas (+120) vs Blanchfield, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.2
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Caio Machado (-148) vs Brendson Ribeiro (+124)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)
Caio Machado is in desperate need of a win, as he is 0-2 in the UFC. However, this is a new weight class as he drops from heavyweight to light heavyweight in search of opponents who better match his physical attributes. That said, as a heavyweight, he wasn’t overpowered and both of his losses came on the judges’ scorecards. He landed more strikes in both fights as well. He lost to Mick Parkin due to a wrestling disadvantage, but his loss to Don’Tale Mayes was perhaps a bit of bad judging or maybe his own misunderstanding about how the bout would be scored. I think his skills are legit, and as long as he didn’t kill himself trying to make it down to 205, he could turn some heads in this spot.
Like Machado, Brendson Ribeiro is also 0-2 in the UFC. He won his Contender Series fight as a +380 underdog via first-round KO but was quickly finished when he made his debut under the UFC’s bright lights as an official member of the roster. He was defeated again as a large underdog in June via majority decision. Generally speaking, Ribeiro wants to get his opponents out of the cage early. I am not sure Machado is the type of opponent who will leave the defensive openings available that Ribeiro needs if he wants to land his early power.
FIGHT WINNER: Caio Machado
UFC BEST BET: Caio Machado (-148), Risk 2.96 Units to Win 2
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Ariane “Queen of Violence” Lipski da Silva (+190) vs Jasmine Jasudavicius -230)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-270) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+200)
Ariane Lipski is a well-rounded veteran who is no stranger to marching into uncharted territory. She is 6-6 in the UFC and has had her fair share of ups and downs. That said, she is perhaps still ascending in the organization as she is 4-2 in her last six fights. She did lose her last trip to the cage as Karine Silva was able to land 5 takedowns. However, her opponents were a combined 0/21 in takedowns in the three previous fights. I point this out because Lipski’s takedown defense is going to be the key metric in this matchup. If Lipski does manage to keep this fight standing, she has the potential to edge out a decision victory.
Jasmine Jasudavicius always looks massive in the cage. She is very muscular and every bit of her listed 5’7” height. She is a proud Canadian and 2-0 on UFC cards in Canada, including a submission victory in January. She is 5-2 as a member of the UFC roster and averages nearly 2.5 takedowns landed per fight. She leverages her strong build and wears on opponents. She does not have the fastest hands and can get outstruck. However, in front of a hyped-up home crowd, I expect her to implement wrestling early and often and do as much as possible to avoid striking exchanges.
FIGHT WINNER: Jasmine Jasudavicius
UFC BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Marc-Andre “Powerbar” Barriault (-198) vs Dustin Stoltzfus (+164)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+120)
Marc-Andre Barriault is the highest billed Canadian on this fight card. He may not have the star power of a former great like George St-Pierre, but he has done plenty in the UFC to endear himself to Canadian MMA fans. He usually doesn’t get his hand raised. He is just 5-7, 1 NC in the UFC, but he is never in a boring contest. At his best, he weaponizes his cardio and sets a pace opponents cannot keep. He has lost to some very good fighters and beaten a few with name recognition such as Eryk Anders and Julian Marquez. He is just 1-3 in Canada, so I do not give him a big “home crowd” bump, but I also don’t necessarily think he needs a big bump to have a successful outing versus Dustin Stoltzfus.
Stoltzfus is all over UFC highlight packages. However, it’s because he is usually on the receiving end of brutal strikes or submissions. He is 2-5 in the UFC but does have a KO victory over Joe Pyfer in Dana White’s Contender Series which is the top win in his career. He is not an accurate striker and has terrible striking defense which is below 50%. He is not an efficient grappler either, but he does average 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage, and he can be dangerous with submissions if he can get the fight on the ground where he wants it.
FIGHT WINNER: Marc-Andre Barriault
UFC BEST BET: Parlay: Marc-Andre Barriault/Jasmine Jasudivicius (+115), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.15
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Mike Malott (-325) vs Trevin Giles (+260)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+114)
Mike Malott’s UFC start could not have been better. A first-round submission win in Contender Series, a first-round knockout in his UFC debut, and two follow-up first-round submission victories in the UFC. However, like most, he learned there were levels to this game when he was matched up with the veteran Neil Magny. Magny was able to survive the early aggression and find a finish of his own in the third round as a massive underdog. The loss brought Malott’s record down to 10-2-1. Overall, he still has a 100% finish rate, and he has never seen the judges’ scorecards, and his loss to Magny was the first time he ever reached the third round. Malott is definitely not much of a volume fighter, and his success comes from putting massive power in the strikes he does land and making sure he finishes the fight once he lands a takedown.
Trevin Giles is a veteran of the game and a former middleweight who has found a new home in the welterweight division. He is 7-6 in the UFC, with three wins via KO and four via decision. He has never lost on the scorecards. He won his first two welterweight bouts but has been finished in his last two, a submission loss to Gabriel Bonfim and a KO defeat to Carlos Prates. On paper, Giles is the much more accurate striker and significantly better defensively. The only things stopping me from playing him at a price is the considerable damage his chin has taken in the past three years, and he is 0-3 as an underdog in the UFC. Additionally, the men competed in a Fury Pro Grappling match in 2022, and Malott got his hand raised via decision.
FIGHT WINNER: Mike Malott
UFC BEST BET: Malott/Giles Round 3 Does Not Start (-125), Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
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Aiemann Zahabi (-148) vs Pedro Munhoz (+124)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-425) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+300)
Aiemann Zahabi is the brother of one of the most legendary coaches in MMA history, the man behind George St-Pierre, Firas Zahabi. The high-level fight acumen did not skip the sibling, and Aiemann Zahabi is one of the most profitable underdogs in UFC history. He is 4-1 when the oddsmakers think he should lose, and he most recently upset Javid Basharat as a +575 underdog versus Javid Basharat. That said, Zahabi is the favorite in this fight, which is a really unique situation as he is only 1-1 as the chalk in the UFC. Dog or favorite, one thing is for certain: he is elite defensively. He is a complete outlier regarding significant strike defense, avoiding 71% of his opponent’s attempts (for reference, 60% is generally considered good, and virtually no other fighters with multiple UFC fights can maintain a number in the 70s). Additionally, his takedown defense is also sterling, 79%. His striking is not overwhelming, but in his last four fights, his striking accuracy has been at or above his career average of 43%.
Pedro Munhoz is a true professional who has 21 career UFC fights and is the owner of seven post-fight performance bonuses. However, recent results have been dragging down his legacy. He began his career with a 9-3, 1 NC record, but since June 2019, he has only been 2-5, 1 NC. It appears he has gotten old fast, and the aging issue for the 38-year-old has been compounded by the fact that he has been squaring off against the best in the business. He has a 60% finish rate in victory and has never been finished in the cage. He has been outstruck by his last six opponents, and he boasts the same 43% significant striking accuracy as Aiemann Zahabi. But his defense rate is significantly worse at 56%. That said, the strength of schedule isn’t comparable. Munhoz has been fighting championship contenders for the past several years, and Zahabi is mostly an undercard fighter.
I like Zahabi to win this fight, but he is a fighter I want to back as a dog, not a favorite. For that reason, and because he is potentially the “easiest” opponent Munhoz has faced in several years, I cannot pull the trigger.
FIGHT WINNER: Aiemann Zahabi
UFC BEST BET: Pass
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Charles “Air” Jourdain (-130) vs Victor “La Mangosta” Henry (+110)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-315) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+230)
Charles Jourdain was in need of a change. He is 6-7-1 in the UFC, but just 2-4 since summer 2022. He was knocked out in his last fight and has decided that it is time to go down from featherweight to bantamweight. He made weight on Friday, and the 135-pound experiment is all systems go. Despite his extensive UFC experience, Jourdain is just 28 years old, so there really could be a career resurgence on the back of this move. He has solid underlying career-striking metrics and generally lands a solid volume. The issue is that his defense is below average. That said, his opponent’s striking defense is worse…
Victor Henry is 3-1, 1 NC in the UFC, but he has a ton of high-level experience. Before joining the top MMA organization, he fought in both Rizin and Pancrase in Japan, so he is no stranger to fighting in hostile territory. He was a +380 underdog in his UFC debut, and won via decision. He was then a favorite in his subsequent three completed fights and went 2-1. In April, he knocked out the BJJ legend Rani Yahya in the third round. He prefers to strike and lands a ridiculous 8.34 significant strikes per minute, but he is perhaps a little too willing to trade as he also absorbs over 50% of the significant strikes his opponents throw. Most of the opponents Henry has fought in the UFC were past their physical prime, which is unlikely to be the case with Jourdain.
FIGHT WINNER: Charles Jourdain
UFC BEST BET: Pass
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Jack “Tank” Shore (+250) vs Youssef “The Moroccan Devil” Zalal (-310)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-298) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+220)
Jack Shore is 6-2 in the UFC, with a defeat to Ricky Simon two years ago when he was at his peak in the organization, and a loss in May to Joanderson Brito. The Brito loss was a brutal TKO due to a cut on his shin from eating too many leg kicks. That said, Shore has some statement victories over veterans Timur Valiev and Makwan Amirkhani. He generally finds his hand raised when he can get his offensive grappling going and wins the takedown battle. He has not lost a UFC fight when he has secured more takedowns than his opponent.
Youssef Zalal is the type of opponent that fighters need to be careful with on their wrestling entries. Eight of his 15 career victories have come via submission, and he won via rear naked choke in his most recent two UFC fights. Zalal is very hungry after being cut from the organization once and is making sure he leaves no doubt every time he enters the cage. His losses before being first cut from the UFC have aged extremely well, including decision defeats to Ilia Topuria and Sean Woodson. He forecasts to be at a deficit when it comes to his striking volume, but I think those stats are a bit cooked based on his strength of schedule. I think his offensive grappling will stifle Shore and ultimately lead to him getting his hand raised.
FIGHT WINNER: Youssef Zalal
UFC BEST BET: Parlay Piece: See Below
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Alexandr Romanov (-130) vs Rodrigo Nascimento (+110)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-180) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+140)
Alexandr Romanov surprisingly weighed in below the 266-pound heavyweight limit at 261 pounds. I say surprisingly because a few short months ago, he weighed in for a grappling match at 290.5 pounds. That extra weight caught my attention because this is already a guy who is having trouble with his gas tank. Romanov benefitted from fighting the worst heavyweights in the division in three of his first five fights. His other two opponents in the UFC were middling, and he started off with a 5-0 record. But like most fighters, he came back down to earth when he started to face ranked opponents consistently. He is just 1-3 in his last three fights and has been finished in his last two losses. At his best, he is a catch wrestler with powerful hands, and at his worst, he is a sloppy fighter just collecting a check.
Rodrigo Nascimento is a clean striker who strangely lacks power despite having a frame that looks like it would support bringing the pain. Like his opponent, he has looked good versus bad opponents, but he has struggled when facing ranked opposition. In May, he was knocked out by Derrick Lewis in the third round of a fight he was winning early. Nascimento’s takedown defense could be tested in this fight. If he manages to keep this one standing, I forecast him winning going away due to his reach and technical boxing advantage.
FIGHT WINNER: Rodrigo Nascimento
UFC BEST BET: Rodrigo Nascimento (+110) vs Romanov, Risk 1 Unit to win 1.1
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Serhiy Sidey (-130) vs Garrett Armfield (+110)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+135)
Serhiy Sidey was a -200 favorite in his UFC debut vs Ramon Taveras, and he lost via split decision. That said, it was a bit of a strange situation as the fight was a rematch of his Contender Series fight versus Taveras, which he won via straight right KO in the first round. This is Sidey’s first fight with a fresh opponent in nearly a year and a half. Garrett Armfield is 2-2 in the UFC and was most recently submitted in June versus Brady Hiestand as a -195 favorite. I think Armfield will land more strikes in this match, but he will struggle with how much power Sidey can generate.
FIGHT WINNER: Serhiy Sidey
UFC BEST BET: Pass
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Chad “The Monster” Anheliger (+180) vs Cody “The Renegade” Gibson (-218)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-240) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+175)
Chad Anheliger was probably on the chopping block before his last fight, which occurred in March of this year. He was a short underdog vs. Charalampos Grigoriou and completely outwilled his opponent. Anheliger is still fighting in the UFC, and Grigoriou was recently cut. Conditioning and fighting IQ matter. Cody Gibson is on his second stint in the UFC after an unceremonious 1-3 run in 2014-2015. He is 1-2 since rejoining the roster, and this fight seems like a roster eliminator. The loser will not be a UFC fighter for much longer. I think Anheliger is definitely live, and he is my pick for the big dog that the home crowd gets across the finish line.
FIGHT WINNER: Chad Anheliger
UFC BEST BET: Chad Anheliger (+180) vs Gibson. Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.8
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Jamey-Lyn Horth (-205) vs Ivana Petrovic (+170)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-445) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+310)
Jamey-Lyn Horth is 1-1 in the UFC and 1-1 as a UFC favorite. She lost a split decision versus the veteran Veronica Hardy in her last fight and is looking to rebound here. Both women landed exactly 43 significant strikes, but Hardy had her hand raised because she threw more volume and landed more head strikes. I assume Horth learned from that experience. Ivana Petrovic is also 1-1 in the UFC. She lost her debut as a -225 favorite versus Luana Carolina, then was given a gimme fight versus the undersized Na Liang and was able to find a submission in the third round. Horth is a Canadian and a grinder. I have concerns regarding Petrovic’s overall skill level and her ability to compete for three rounds versus a grinder like Horth
FIGHT WINNER: Jamey-Lyn Horth
UFC BEST BET: Parlay: Youssef Zalal/Jamey-Lyn Horth (-104), Risk 1.04 Units to Win 1
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UFC BEST BETS RECAP
- Parlay: Youssef Zalal/Jamey-Lyn Horth (-104), Risk 1.04 Units to Win 1
- Chad Anheliger (+180) vs Gibson, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.8
- Rodrigo Nascimento (+110) vs Romanov, Risk 1 Unit to win 1.1
- Malott/Giles Round 3 Does Not Start (-125), Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
- Parlay: Marc-Andre Barriault/Jasmine Jasudavicius (+115), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.15
- Rose Namajunas (+120) vs Blanchfield, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.2
- Brandon Moreno (-166) vs Albazi, Risk 1.66 Units to Win 1 Unit
- Caio Machado (-148) vs Ribeiro, Risk 2.96 Units to Win 2 Units
