UFC Picks & Predictions Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot
VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess has some strong takes on the UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot card and put pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts on every fight on the docket.
UFC Odds | UFC Betting Splits | Lou Finocchiaro’s article
BET HISTORY
Last Week: 4-4 (+0.8 Units)
Article History: 15-13 (+6.95 Units)
PICK’EM HISTORY
Last Week Pick’em Recap: 4-8 (33.33%)
Article History: 28-21 (57.14%)
MAIN EVENT:
Erin “Cold Blooded” Blanchfield (-192) versus Manon “The Beast” Fiorot (+160)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-140) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+110)
At only 24 years old, Blanchfield already has one of the best resumes in the UFC’s Women’s Flyweight Division. She is 6-0 in the organization, defeating two former flyweight title challengers in Talia Santos and Jessica Andrade. She has also finished two mainstays in the division; Molly McCann and JJ Aldrich. Overall her professional record is 12-1, with the one loss aging quite well. As an 18 year old, she lost to now-ranked UFC flyweight, Tracy Cortez via split decision. Overall, she has four submission victories to go along with two knockouts.
Without a doubt, Blanchfield prefers to win matches on the mat. In five of her six UFC fights she has secured at least one takedown. She did not get her most recent opponent, Talia Santos, to the ground but was still able to close distance and control the fight with eight minutes of clinch control time.
At age 34, Fiorot is also 6-0 in the UFC and 11-1 overall as a professional. Four of her six UFC opponents are currently ranked among the UFC’s women’s divisions. She is a French national champion in kickboxing and Muay Thai and much more of a standup fighter than Blanchfield. Her last four victories have come via decision, out-pointing her opponents to the tune of 330 significant strikes to 221.
The overly simplistic handicap of this fight is that Blanchfield wins if she gets it to the ground, and Fiorot wins if she keeps it standing. But Blanchfield’s stand up is not bad. In the UFC, she is landing 2.26 significant strikes per minute more than her opponents. Blanchfield averages 2.86 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon, and these numbers are a bit skewed because in two of her last three fights she was able to get the submission after just one takedown landed. However, her takedown accuracy is actually just 36%, these numbers are heavily influenced by the fact she was unsuccessful in 14 takedown attempts in her last fight versus Talia Santos.
Fiorot’s takedown defense has been solid in the UFC, stopping 91% of the attempts her opponents have thrown at her. She is also 3 inches taller than Blanchfield and is adept at controlling range, so getting to her legs will not be easy. Fiorot may not have the pure power of Blanchfield’s last opponent,Talia Santos, but she does have better accuracy and is lighter on her feet.
There are a few intangible elements that go into this handicap, the first being the location of this fight. The event is in primetime at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. Blanchfield is a Jersey girl. Additionally, Fiorot is 10 years older than Blanchfield. Generally, fighters 10 years older than their opponents do not fare well. Furthermore, this is Fiorot’s first scheduled five round fight since 2020, when she won the UAE Warriors Women’s Flyweight Belt via 1st round KO. Blanchfield had a scheduled 5 round fight vs Jessica Andrade in 2023, but she won via submission in the second round.
Blanchfield is fighting at home, and she is 10 years younger than her opponent. No wonder she is a solid favorite. However, in this instance, I do not think the 10-year age gap is as important as in other matchups, mainly because Blanchfield is so young. Fighters generally fall off a cliff after age 35 in all non-heavyweight divisions. Fiorot is not quite there yet, and due to the fact she entered the UFC in her thirties, she has more tread on the tires than most 34 year olds.
The hometown crowd could be an issue if this fight is a close decision. But I don’t see this fight as all that close. Fiorot should win the standup exchanges, and she should be able to avoid being taken down and controlled in the clinch. If that happens, this decision is not going to be in the air
I will take the underdog in this fight because of the tools Manon Fiorot possesses for asserting her fight style on Blanchfield, and her ability to defend her opponent’s greatest strengths.
Fight Winner: Manon Fiorot
Bet: Manon Fiorot (+160), 1 Unit to Win 1.6
–
Co-Main Event:
Vicente “The Silent Assassin” Luque (-112) versus Joaquim “New Mansa” Buckley (-105)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+124) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-160)
At just 32 years old, Luque has entered the UFC octagon twenty times and has put together a 15-5 record. He has earned a reputation as a finisher as he has eight knockouts and five submissions in MMA’s top organization. He has defeated former champions Rafael dos Anjos and Tyron Woodley and has faced numerous other opponents firmly planted in the welterweight top 15. For the majority of his career, his fights have been all action. He lands over five significant strikes per minute, but absorbs nearly an identical amount. Four of his five UFC submissions have come via D’arce choke, he is adept at catching his opponents when they lower their head to attempt a takedown, or even duck to avoid a strike. He averages about one takedown per 15 minutes in the cage, but most recently in his unanimous decision victory versus Rafael Dos Anjos, he landed eight. He overpowered his aging opponent and accrued over 12 minutes of control time in the five-round bout.
In three and a half years on the UFC roster, Buckley has made eleven trips into the octagon. His debut was a short notice loss to Kevin Holland up a weight class at middleweight. He stayed at the heavier weight for his first nine UFC bouts. Since moving down to welterweight, Buckley is on a two fight winning streak, knocking out striker Andre Fialho, and most recently edging out a decision versus welterweight stalwart Alex Morono. Buckley is 29 years old with 23 professional fights. Despite already having been in numerous wars, Buckley seems to still have plenty in the tank, and his game is evolving. When he came into the UFC he happily embraced his reputation as a brawler, with his first five fights ending with a knockout (3 given, 2 received). Despite not being known as much of a wrestler, he has landed more takedowns than his opponents in his last two fights.
Luque probably will want to approach this fight with a similar plan to the one he employed versus dos Anjos. Buckley is not a fighter that anyone in the division can beat going one-for-one in head strikes. This isn’t an indictment on Luque’s power, but more about calling attention to how hard Buckley hits. Additionally, Buckley has good defensive wrestling, he has been taken down once at 170 in the UFC and his opponent was only able to accomplish 13 seconds of control time. I do not foresee grappling exchanges that would allow Luque to lock in his trademark D’arce choke.
Fight Winner: Joaquin Buckley
Bet: Joaquin Buckley (-105), 1.05 Units to Win 1
Joaquin Buckley via KO (+240), 0.5 Units to Win 1.2
–
Bruno “Blindado” Silva (-250) versus Chris “All American” Weidman (+205)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+114)
Eleven years ago, Weidman was an undefeated prospect tasked with taking the belt from the people’s GOAT, Anderson Silva. Silva was riding a 17 fight win streak, Weidman was 9-0 overall as a professional. He did the impossible, he knocked out Silva in round 2. Weidman was in uncharted territory as a relative newcomer who reached the pinnacle of the sport in just his sixth trip into the octagon. But unfortunately for Weidman, after three successful title defenses his career has mostly been on the down swing. Since December 2015, Weidman is 2-7. He has been knocked out five times, and lost another fight as he broke his leg on a checked kick. He no longer has a chin that can stand up to trading with elite power punchers, and after the broken leg (and knee surgeries prior to that), Weidman does not move like he once did. He can no longer shoot double legs fluidly. In his last fight versus Brad Tavares, he was bending at the waist in his takedown attempts and not closing the distance well. Tavares was able to further limit Weidman’s mobility through sharp leg kicks. Weidman looked like a shell of his former self. At age 39, after so many wars, so many surgeries, it is hard to imagine Weidman having a late career resurgence.
Silva is a striker. His professional record is 23-10, with 20 of his victories coming via knockout. He entered the UFC with three consecutive KO wins, living up to the reputation he cultivated before making it onto MMA’s biggest stage. But as his level of competition elevated, his results plummeted. In his last five fights he is 1-4, with two decision losses, two via submission. He has never been knocked out at any level of professional MMA, and his chin was recently put to the test in his outing versus emerging prospect Shara Magomedov. On the feet, this fight should favor the Brazilian.
It is easy to imagine a fight in which Chris Weidman lands takedowns and controls Silva through his grappling. Silva has made mental gaffes in the past that have put him in positions he couldn’t recover from. But at this point in Weidman’s career it is hard to see him enacting his gameplan, the physical tools are seemingly long gone.
Fight Winner: Bruno Silva
Bet: Pass
–
Nursulton “Black” Ruziboev (-225) versus Sedrique “The Reaper” Dumas (+185)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-105) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-125)
Ruziboev made his UFC debut in July as a replacement opponent for hard hitting Bruno Ferreira. But the newcomer made short work of his foe with a first round KO, cashing as a nearly +200 underdog. He entered that fight on an eight fight winning streak, and overall has a 33-8-2 record at just 30 years old. He is a finisher, with 11 KO and 20 submission victories. He is an exciting prospect who appears to be in the prime of his career.
Dumas is making his fourth trip to the octagon after winning his last two bouts. Overall he is 9-1, with a 2-1 record in the UFC. Six of his nine victories have come inside the distance, but both of his octagon victories have come via decision. He is a rangy and exciting kickboxer who has a knack for finding holes in his opponent’s defense.
Despite Dumas being more of a veteran in the octagon, Nursulton is much more experienced as a pro mixed martial artist. The opponents Dumas has faced recently have been favorable matchups as he had decisive height and reach advantages. Ruziboev is six foot five with the ability to grapple which is not Dumas’s strength.
Fight Winner: Nursulton Ruziboev
Bet: Parlay Piece, more to come
–
Bill “Señor Perfecto” Algeo (-245) versus Kyle “The Monster” Nelson (+200)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-215) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+165)
Nelson has entered the octagon eight times. He has been an underdog in seven of those fights, but his UFC record is 3-4-1. He was greater than a +200 underdog in all three fights he took in 2023 and went 2-0-1. As of late, he is not a big time finisher and is more of a grinder in the cage. He derails hype trains with a high fight IQ and even higher motor.
Bill Algeo is 5-3 in the octagon and has won his last two fights. Like Nelson, he stays in his opponents face and leans on his gas tank to drag his opponents to deep waters. He has two UFC finishes to his name, including the rare TKO due to “exhaustion from damage.” But more often than not, his fights see the judges scorecards, six of his eight UFC bouts have gone to the scorecards.
The biggest issue for Nelson in this fight is that he gets hit more than he lands. Algeo is the opposite, landing an impressive 6.11 significant strikes per minute. The most likely outcome for this fight is Algeo winning via decision.
Fight Winner: Bill Algeo
Bet: Pass
–
Chidi “Bang Bang” Njokuani (-148) versus Rhys “Skeletor” Mckee (+124)
Mckee is in his second stint in the UFC. His first time through was rough, as he got finished by Khamzat Chimaev then lost a fire fight via decision to Alex Morono. After that he went back to Cage Warriors and scored three knockout victories. He then returned to the UFC to face Ange Loosa; he ate nearly 100 significant strikes and lost via decision, despite winning the third round on two out of three scorecards.
Njokuani took a long time to reach the UFC. He had eight fights in Bellator before getting a shot in contender series. But once he made it to the UFC he wasted no time, finishing his first two opponents in the first round. But after the flash, his momentum has slowed down significantly as he has lost his last three fights.
Neither fighter has secured a takedown in the UFC and both are adept strikers. Mckee throws more volume and Njokuani is considerably more accurate. Mckee’s striking defense in the UFC has been abysmal where Njokuani’s has been serviceable. I have questions about both fighters’ chins, however I am certain Njokokuani has more power. Although Mckee made it three rounds versus Loosa, he ate some shots that will likely be with him the rest of his career.
Fight Winner: Chidi Njokuani
Bet: Parlay: Chidi Njokuani/Nursulton Ruziboev (+142), 1 Unit to Win 1.42
–
Nate “The Train” Landwehr (+160) versus Jamall “Pretty Boy” Emmers (-180)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+124)
More often than not, Landwehr has been an underdog in his UFC fights, but he has still put together a winning record of 4-3. In his last bout, he tested the waters versus a ranked opponent in Dan Ige and lost on all three judges scorecards 30-27. He always has exciting fights, every time he steps in the ring it feels like someone is going to be in the conversation for a performance bonus.
Emmers has had an up and down six fight UFC career. He has alternated wins and losses every step of the way, and is coming off a KO victory versus Dennis Buzukja after he missed weight by a full pound. Statistically he is a slightly better grappler than Landwehr and has a slightly better defense as well.
Overall I see this as a very close fight. Perhaps there is an opportunity to go contrarian on the under because all week Landwehr has been hyping up how exciting all of his fights are. If he gets desperate to make a highlight happen he could get one, or be on the receiving end.
Fight Winner: Jamall Emmers
Bet: Pass
–
Virna “Carcara” Jandiroba (+180) versus Lupita “Loopy” Godinez (-218)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-315) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+230)
Godinez is all energy in the octagon. She seemingly never runs out of gas as she is constantly touching her opponents with strikes and looking for takedowns. Jandiroba is much more reserved in the cage. Godinez is one of the most active fighters on the UFC roster, this will be her 11th fight in under three years. Virna Jandiroba came into the UFC with a clean 14–0 record and has since gone 5-3 as her level of competition has increased. Loopy has matured in the cage; she was 5-0 when stepping into the octagon, and has amassed a 7-3 record in the top MMA organization.
Neither woman is much of a finishing threat on the feet. They both like to use takedowns to control their opponents. Jandiroba is much more decorated in BJJ and has 13 submission victories as a professional mixed martial artist. Godinez will want to keep this fight standing and outpoint her opponent, but if she gets stubborn taking the fight to the ground she could be in trouble. Overall I think these odds are a bit off and should be closer. I understand the total because neither woman has been finished in a combined 37 bouts. I believe Jandiroba’s undervalued BJJ will be the difference in this fight
Fight Winner: Virna Jandiroba
Bet: Virna Jandiroba (+180), 1 Unit to Win 1.8
Virna Jandiroba to win via Submission (+550), 0.5 Units to Win 2.25
–
Julio Arce (-380) versus Herbert “The Blaze” Burns (+300)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-130) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+100)
In four UFC fights, Burns has two first round submission victories, and two second round KO losses. His UFC career showed promise after the blazing fast start, but his last two outings have left a sour taste in MMA fans’ mouths. He has also only fought once since August of 2020 so his activity level has left a lot to be desired. He is 36 years old and likely needs a win if he wants to spend his last few fighting years in MMA’s top organization.
Arce is 5-4 in the UFC and has seen good competition in both the 135 and 145 pound weight classes. He has three finishes in the UFC, all of them coming in round two or later. He has shown great striking defense in the octagon, and boasts an impressive 95% takedown defense rate. Additionally he trains out of New Jersey, so this event will be taking place in his backyard. Arce is the deserving favorite in this fight, but the odds are a bit extreme. He also was a pound heavy on the scale and this is his first trip into the octagon up a class as a featherweight in three years.
Burns’s lack of activity, and Arce’s weight miss are keeping me off on a play in this fight. It also should be noted that Arce has never been submitted, and that is Burns’s best path to victory.
Fight Winner: Julio Arce
Bet: Pass
–
Connor “The Controller” Mathews (+100) versus Dennis “The Great” Buzukja (-120)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+124)
Both of these fighters took two tries in Contender Series before making it into the octagon. They likely received two chances because they both come from respected camps, Matthews is part of The New England Cartel, and Buzukja comes from Longo and Weidman MMA. This will be Matttews’ first trip to the Octagon. Buzukja is 0-2. Matthews is 7-1 as a professional, with five of his victories coming via submission. Buzukja is 11-4 with four knockouts and one submission victory.
With such a short sample size, Matthews’ quality of opponent needs to be examined. Prior to his first stint on the contender series Mathews had seen one opponent with a winning record (2-1). He also beat a guy named Jay Ellis who was 15-97 when they fought (Ellis is now 16-109). Matthews first contender series fight was against Francis Marshall, it was a loss via decision. Since earning his contract, Marshall has gone 1-2 in the UFC.
Buzukja was not fighting world beaters before coming to the UFC, but he was at least fighting guys with a few fights under their belts. His first Contender Series opportunity was a loss to Melsik Baghdasaryan who has since put up a 3-1 UFC record. After the defeat, Bujzuka went back to the regional scene and defeated more opponents who had legitimate time in the cage. He won his second Contender series bout, and then got some wins in semi respectable promotions, UAE Warriors and Cage Fury. Experience is the key in this matchup, and I lean toward Buzukja.
Fight Winner: Dennis Buzukja
Bet: Pass
–
Ibo “The Last Ottoman” Aslan (-125) versus Anton “The Pleasure Man” Turkalj (+105)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+120) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-150)
It is rare to see a rematch buried this low on the undercard but this is exactly what we are getting in Aslan versus Turkalj. These fighters squared off three and a half years ago in the Brave CF cage. It was very much an amateur affair and we should all hope the level of fight IQ displayed in Atlantic City is much higher. Turkalj survived Aslan’s best shots early in the fight and found ways of being aggressive off his back from the guard. It is likely Aslan was ahead on scorecards but in a strange standup scramble he let Turkalj get his back and sink in a rear naked choke. There was plenty of bad blood on that day, and there will be in the UFC octagon as well.
But this isn’t Brave CF and the year is not 2021. This fight is at 205 pounds, not the 215 catchweight the men met at the first time. And I’m not sure Turkalj chin is as good as it was back then. Losing three fights in the UFC has a physical toll. When we last saw Aslan in a KO victory in Contender Series he had matured physically and was much leaner.
That said due to Aslan’s resume full of relative unknown it’s difficult to know just how legit his 12 KO victories are.Turkalj has gotten beat up all over the cage since reaching the UFC level. Choosing a side in this bad blood affair is tough but I lean towards “The Last Ottoman”
Fight Winner: Ibo Aslan
Bet: Pass
–
Melissa Gatto (-155) versus Victoria Dudakova (+130)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-215) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+165)
Dudakova will be making her women’s flyweight debut, after spending her first eight professional fights in the strawweight division (she did fight in flyweight as an amateur). She is 2-0 in the UFC, having been the favorite in both fights. Her first outing was cut short as her opponent dislocated her elbow when defending a seemingly innocuous takedown. In her second fight she was a huge favorite versus Jinh Yu Frey and took care of business.
Gatto has entered the octagon four times and has put together a 2-2 record. She won via TKO in her first two bouts, but lost via decision in her two most recent. Both of these women are capable strikers and have KOs on their resumes. However when winning inside the distance, both women have had more success with submissions. Given that Dudakova is coming up a weight class it is likely that her power will be diminished, and her wrestling will be tougher to assert considering she is facing a larger woman.
Fight Winner: Melissa Gatto
Bet: Pass
–
Andre Petroski (+195) versus Jacob “Mamba” Malkoun (-238)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+130)
Both of these men rack up a ton of control time in the cage. They are wrestlers who want to take down their opponent and hold them there. Neither of them are excellent stand up fighters so this fight likely goes one of two ways. 1. The wrestling cancels out and we are stuck watching endless stalemates along the fence. 2. They both give up on wrestling and we see a sloppy striking affair.
Malkoun actually has 0% takedown defense, both attempts his opponents have made have been successful. Petroski is a little better at 71% as he has faced more grapplers.Given Petroski’s wrestling background, Malkoun’s style will not be daunting to face. And I don’t think Malkoun has faced an opponent as eager to chain wrestle as Andre Petroski.
Fight Winner: Andre Petroski
Bet: Andre Petroski (+195) 1 Unit to Win 1.95
–
Angel Pacheco (+340) versus Caolan “The Don” Loughran (-440)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+114) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-145)
Pacheco is making his octagon debut after losing in the Contender Series. He may or may not be on this card because he trains at the New England Cartel gym along with a bunch of UFC stars. He also may be on this card because despite losing his Contender Series bout, it was a dog fight, he landed 13.13 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 13.6. He threw 502 total strikes, landing 204, while his opponent, Danny Silva threw 328 and landed 213. Dana White awarded both fighters contracts after that performance. Prior to the UFC he mostly fought in low tier regional events but has managed to finish his opponents in all nine of his professional victories. Both of his pro defeats have been via judges scorecard.
Loughran made his debut in hostile territory at last September’s Fight Night Paris card. He lost via decision to Taylor Lapilus. Prior to joining the UFC, Loughran had won four consecutive fights via KO in Cage Warriors. Overall there are a lot of unknowns in this fight, but one thing is for certain, there will be action. It should also be noted that this is Pacheco’s first pro fight at 135 pounds, he is cutting down from 145 where he has spent most of his career. With so many unknown variables, I think the dog is worth a shot in this spot.
Fight Winner: Angel Pacheco
Bet: Angel Pacheco (+340), 1 Unit to Win 3.4
–
Best Bets Recap:
Manon Fiorot (+160), 1 Unit to Win 1.6
Joaquin Buckley (-105), 1.05 Units to Win 1
Joaquin Buckley via KO (+240), 0.5 Units to Win 1.2
Chidi Njokuani/Nursulton Ruziboev (+142), 1 Unit to Win 1.42
Virna Jandiroba (+180), 1 Unit to Win 1.8
Virna Jandiroba to win via Submission (+550), 0.5 Units to Win 2.25
Andre Petroski (+195) 1 Unit to Win 1.95
Angel Pacheco (+340), 1 Unit to Win 3.4
