UFC Picks & Predictions Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas

VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess has some strong takes on the UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas card and put pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts on every fight on the docket.

UFC Odds | UFC Betting Splits | Lou Finocchiaro’s article

BET HISTORY

Last Week: 3-3 (+2.09 Units)

Article History: 11-9 (+6.15 Units)

PICK’EM HISTORY

Last Week Pick’em Recap: 5-7 (41.6%)

Article History: 24-13 (64.86%)

MAIN EVENT:

Amanda Ribas (+170) versus “Thug” Rose Namajunas (-205)

Over 4.5 (+110) | Under 4.5 (-140)

After putting together one of the most impressive resumes in UFC Women’s Strawweight history, Namajunas seemingly hit a wall. The division is crowded at the top – in 13 fights at 115 pounds, Rose found herself in five rematches. Her final fight at strawweight went to a split decision in a title defense versus the woman she lost her UFC debut to in Carla Esparza.

Rose faced quite a bit of adversity in her UFC Women’s Flyweight debut in September. She was facing top contender Manon Fiorot in her native country at the Accor Arena in Paris. It was Rose’s second scheduled three round fight out of her last seven and her first in three years. She was facing a true 125 pounder, and she broke her hand in the beginning of the first round. The size difference was apparent in the amount of power Fiorot had in her strikes. Rose’s best round was definitely her third as she won it on two out of three judges’ scorecards.

Ribas has a 7-3 record in the UFC. Six of those bouts have been at 115 pounds, with the other four being at 125. She has a 2-2 record at the heavier weight. She is a fighter that likes to brawl and overwhelms opponents with all out aggression. She is always trying to finish the fight whether it’s on the feet or the ground.She has 3 knockouts and 4 submissions to her name in 12 professional victories. She has fought one five round a fight, a decision victory 8 years ago in a lower organization.

Ribas is likely to be the stronger and more powerful fighter in the octagon. Rose is much more technical and has better head movement. The former strawweight champion should be willing to let the more muscle bound Ribas use her energy in the early rounds. Although Rose is not a traditional power puncher, she has two knockouts in the UFC and is adept at taking advantage of a stationary head (see her head kick KO vs Weili Zhang).

I expect Rose to win this fight due to being the more technical striker and cerebral fighter. The fight should have plenty of fireworks as Ribas has a knack for drawing out action, win or lose. Rose’s experience in main event, five-round fights should also play a factor. Most statistical measures have both women fairly close, but Namajunas has fought vastly superior competition albeit at a lower weight class.

FIGHT WINNER: Rose Namajunas

BET: Parlay Piece, see below.

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Co-Main Event:

Karl Williams (-185) vs Justin “Bad Man” Tafa (+154)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-180) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+140)

Williams is appearing in the octagon for the third time boasting a 2-0 record heading into Saturday. Tafa represents a major step up in class for the grappler, as his first two opponents have a combined 4-14 record in the UFC. The opposition Tafa has seen has also been far from the tip-of-the-spear, but this will be his 8th trip into the cage, riding a three-fight win streak in which he has knocked out each opponent.

Tafa is a bit of a one trick pony in the same vein as Tai Tuivasa, who was featured in last week’s main event. All seven of Tafa’s professional victories have come via knockout, with 5 occurring in the first round. He has not been taken down in the octagon, but he has only faced two attempts. Williams is averaging 4.5 takedowns per fight in the UFC.

In his last time out, Williams was just 1/10 in takedown attempts versus the journeyman Chase Sherman. As we saw in UFC 299 with Jailton Almeida’s KO loss to Curtis Blaydes, heavyweight wrestlers who don’t also possess heavy hands tend to have trouble as their level of competition rises. Tafa is the much more active striker, landing 5.13 significant strikes per minute contrasting Williams much more measured 2.93.

Every fight starts on the feet, and Williams is yet to see an opponent with the power that Tafa possesses. If he gets sloppy trying to force a takedown, he will eat something that ends the fight. Both of Williams’s victories have been unanimous decisions, but that does not mean they were impressive performances considering his lackluster strength of schedule. Additionally, when getting takedowns, he has not shown an ability to finish fights. An early takedown for Williams in Round 1 does not mean he will be leaving the octagon early, instead it means that Tafa is likely to get another shot on the feet at the beginning of Round 2. I like the more tested fighter, and I like him to win via KO.

FIGHT WINNER: Justin Tafa

BET: Justin Tafa to win via Knockout: (+215), 1 Unit to Win 2.15

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Edmen “The Golden Boy” Shahbazyan (-198) versus AJ Dobson (+164)

Over 2.5 Rounds (+100) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-120)

Shahbazyan has already been in the UFC for six years and he is only 26 years old. In his nine-fight UFC career, he has displayed some of the most impressive striking skills the middleweight division has to offer. But, unfortunately for him, the UFC is not simply a striking organization and there are holes in his game that have plagued him in his four UFC losses. The main issue has always been his gas tank, even in victories he has been known to slow down as the fight wears on.

Dobson’s tenure in the UFC is much shorter than his opponent’s – he is 1-2 in the UFC. Each of his trips to the octagon has reached the judges’ scorecards.He found success in his last fight by controlling his opponent on the ground for nearly a third of the fight. Throughout the course of his career he has tried to employ this path to victory.

Both of these fighters have poor, sub 50% striking defense numbers and both land about half the strikes they throw. In Dobson’s two most recent fights he has faced accomplished kickboxers and has found success finding takedowns off caught kicks.

The final wrinkle in this bout is that Dobson is taking it on one month’s notice. However, he is not entering the octagon from the couch. He was supposed to fight on February 17th at UFC 298, however his opponent dropped out around the time Shahbazyan’s slated opponent also withdrew from this event.

Dobson is hard to hit because he is very good at rolling with punches and kicks. It is hard to land clean on him. That said, Shahbazyan will be as dangerous as ever in the first round. But at this point the sample size is large and the game plan is clear for defeating the striker. Let him wear himself out early in the fight and get him to the ground late.

FIGHT WINNER: AJ Dobson

BET: AJ Dobson (+164), 1 Unit to Win 1.64

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Payton Talbott (-155) versus Cameron ”MSP” Saaiman (+130)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-190) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)

People are calling this fight the “people’s main event” and for good reason. Both of these prospects have had impressive runs in the octagon early in their careers. Talbott is a Reno native who won via submission in his UFC debut last time out. Saaiman is a 23 year old South African making his fith UFC appearance.

Talbott is big for the bantamweight (135 pound) division at 5’10” with a 70” reach. Saaiman is 5’8” and measures 67” in the reach department. Talbott is 7-0 with six finishes, Saaiman is 9-1 with seven wins inside the distance. The betting underdog lost his last fight versus known hype train derailer, Christian Rodriguez (see his fight vs Isaac Dulgarian last week). That said, even with a loss Saaiman’s UFC resume is much more impressive than Talbott’s, if for no other reason than its length.

I think the odds are off in this fight and line it much closer to pick’em. There is still too much unknown about Talbott in the cage. But one thing that is known about both fighters is their ability to end things early. The total round odds in this fight seem to be more off than the moneyline prices.

FIGHT WINNER: Cameron Saaiman

Bet: Fight does NOT go the Distance (+130), 1 Unit to Win 1.3

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Billy Quarantillo (-115) versus Yousef “The Moroccan Devil” Zalal (-115)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-270) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+200)

On the surface this fight looks like a match between a UFC fan favorite in Billy Q versus a retread in Zalal. But there is much more to the story than what you can see at the surface. Zalal’s first stint in the UFC started great as he was 3-0. He then lost three fights via decision and followed that up with a draw on his way out of the organization. However those “bad” bouts have aged like a fine wine, he lost to current featherweight champion Ilia Topuria, division mainstay Seung Woo Choi, and Sean Woodson who is currently on a five-fight winning streak and approaching a number next to his name. The draw was down a weight class versus Damon Blackshear, Zalal narrowly lost the first two rounds and was moments away from a finish in the third.

Billy Q has earned the respect of fight fans due to the relentless pace he brings into the octagon. He overwhelms his opponents and never gets tired. He has three knockout victories in the UFC, none of which has come in the first round. It’s a battle of attrition every time he steps into the cage. His strikes landed per minute metric is among the best in the UFC at a blistering 7.71.

Since leaving the UFC, Zalal has three inside the distance victories in lesser organizations. Perhaps the biggest concern for Zalal backers is that he is taking the fight on a week’s notice after Quarantillo’s opponent dropped out. Given the uncertainty of Zalal’s preparedness it is hard to pick him versus a fighter who has had a full camp.

FIGHT WINNER: Billy Quarantillo

BET: Pass

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Luis “Corazon De Leon” Pajuelo (+150) versus Fernando “El Valiente” Padilla (-180)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-210) | under 1.5 Rounds (+160)

Pajuelo is making his UFC debut after winning via TKO as an underdog in contender series. Fernando Padilla has won in the octagon as an underdog and lost as a favorite. At only 27 years old he has 20 professional fights, boasting a 15-5 record. Despite only being in the UFC for his last two bouts, his strength of schedule is worth considering as he had faced three fighters who have been or currently are in the UFC before entering the cage himself. Pajuelo has nine pro fights and a 8-1 record, winning his last five in a row. However the level of competition has been subpar. He has a penchant for KOs as they account for seven of his victories.

Padilla has more experience and has seen much better competition. Pajuelo will have a puncher’s chance, but I like Padilla to get back to winning versus a fighter who is likely going to press the action. Padilla’s 6+ inch reach advantage should play a factor in this fight.

FIGHT WINNER: Fernando Padilla

BET: Under 2.5 Rounds (-125), 1.25 Units to Win 1

Fernando Padilla to Win Inside the Distance (+150), 1 Unit to Win 1.5

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Trey “Samurai Ghost” Ogden (-148) versus Kurt Holobaugh (+124)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+130)

In three out of Ogden’s four trips to the Octagon, he has been the betting underdog. He is 1-1, with one “no contest” in those fights. He took the 0 from the undefeated Daniel Zellhuber as +310 dog, then lost versus Ignacio Bahamondes with nearly the same odds. In his most recent fight he was a slight underdog to Nikolas Motta. He was dominating the fight, and in the third round slipped in a choke. The ref thought Motta was out and ended the action. Upon review, Motta was not in fact unconscious and the fight was ruled a no contest due to premature stoppage. But based on the scorecards and the momentum in the third round, Ogden was on his way to victory.

Holobaugh is riding the wave of his second stint in the UFC after winning the most recent lightweight season of “The Ultimate Fighter.” In his first go round, he lost three fights in 10 months and promptly was shown the door. He won two fights on the regional scene, then won three “TUF” matches to earn the right to prove himself in the octagon once again. It would be a fun story for Holobaugh to string together a few wins in his return, but Ogden is no easy customer. Both of these fighters are capable on the ground, with Holobaugh possessing the more powerful strikes.

Fight Winner: Kurt Holobaugh

BET: Pass

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Ricardo “Carcacinha” Ramos (-180) versus Julian “Juicy J” Erosa (+150)

Over 2.5 Rounds (+140) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-180)

Two of the more tenured fighters on this card, Ramos and Erosa are not lacking in octagon experience. Erosa is 6-7 in the UFC, with three of his victories coming via finish, and six of his seven defeats coming via knockout. His last two outings have ended with him being finished in the first round (albeit the most recent was a bit controversial). Ramos has gone 7-4 in the UFC with four victories coming via decision, and three of his losses coming via finish.

Ramos is the proud owner of two spinning back elbow knockouts in MMA’s highest organization. Erosa’s last fight was nearly a full year ago, and the fight before that was 15 months prior. In the last 27 months, Erosa has spent less than five minutes in the octagon and been knocked out twice. He protested the result in the second KO, but had already been out on his feet once so the stoppage was far from the worst we have seen.

Despite questions about his chin, Erosa does have a few paths to victory. Ramos has been caught in submissions as the result of sloppy grappling in the past, and Erosa is no stranger to finding a choke. It should also be noted that Erosa’s two most recent losses were against taller fighters. He will have a four-inch height and reach advantage versus Ramos.

Fight Winner: Ricardo Ramos

Bet: Pass

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Miles “Chapo” Johns (-142) versus Cody “The Renegade” Gibson (+120)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-190) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)

Johns’ most recent fight was ruled a no contest after he was originally declared the winner. He tested positive for turinabol, a banned performance enhancing drug. The UFC is no longer performing USADA (United States Anti Doping Agency) testing and instead is following an internal anti-doping initiative. Use this information as you wish.

Outside of the controversial no contest bout, Johns has largely looked good in the UFC, with a 4-2 record. He has been a favorite in every fight he has had in the octagon, outside of his bout that was ruled invalid. Two of his wins have come via knockout, and two have come via decision.

Gibson is another UFC redemption story. He was the bantamweight runner-up on the most recent edition of “The Ultimate Fighter” and is attempting to re-establish himself in the organization at age 36. He is a large bantamweight at 5’10” with a 71 inch reach. 13 of his 27 professional fights have reached the final bell. His opponent has seen the judges scorecards in seven of 15 professional fights. In this matchup, I do not consider Gibson much of a threat to finish, and Johns is yet to get beat on the scorecards in his career.

Fight Winner: Miles Johns

Bet: Pass

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Steven “The Ninja” Nguyen (-162) versus Jarno Errens (+136)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+124)

Nguyen is a rare member of the “3 Contender Series Fights” club which can be a good or bad thing depending on your POV. In his first fight, he lost via flying knee KO; in his second, he won via decision; and in his third, he won via KO. He was the favorite in all three fights. He is now making his official octagon debut. Overall he has a 9-1 record with four knockouts and three submissions.

Errens is entering the octagon for the third time. His first two bouts were overseas, with both losses coming via judges’ scorecards. Despite having a full 30 minutes between the two fights to express himself in the octagon, Errens has had trouble doing much of anything. He has landed an abysmal 1.67 significant strikes per minute, and eaten 2.93. He has not secured a takedown and his opponents have completed four of the six they have attempted. This fight feels like his last chance to prove he belongs in MMA’s top organization.

Sometimes it’s okay to read between the tea leaves. In this case, it appears the UFC really wants an action-seeking prospect from a respected gym (Fortis MMA) in Nguyen to succeed. Errens has not proven to be a dangerous opponent thus far in his career.

Fight Winner: Steven Nguyen

Bet: Parlay Steven Nguyen with Rose Namajunas (+140), 1 Unit to Win 1.4

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Montserrat “Monster” Rendon (+190) versus Darya Zheleznyakova (-230)

Over 2.5 Rounds(-270) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+190)

Rendon is coming off a split decision victory as a +200 underdog in her UFC debut. She has a pristine 6-0 professional MMA record. All of her fights have gone to the judges’ scorecards. The combined records of her five pre-ufc opponents is 10-7, or on average two wins and 1.4 defeats. That level of experience leaves a bit to be desired.

Zheleznyakova is making her UFC debut after accruing an 8-1 record on the regional scene. Five of her wins have come via KO. Her lone loss was to Melissa Tonya Mullins, who recently made a successful octagon debut. Zheleznyakova will undoubtedly be the most dangerous striker Rendon has faced in her short career.

Rendon will likely want to get this fight on the mat as Zheleznyakova projects to be much more dangerous in the standup department. That said this one is tough to call because both women’s samples of work have holes.

Fight Winner: Darya Zheleznyakova

Bet: Pass

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Igor Severino I+136) versus Andre “Mascote” Lima (-162)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-190) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+145)

Both of these fighters are young, undefeated Brazilian fighters making their UFC debuts after successful stints in Contender series. Severino is only 20 years old and has amassed an 8-0 record with eight finishes (4 KO, 4 sub). Despite being an extremely young fighter with an unblemished record, he has actually faced some opponents with some pro fights under their belts. In his one and a half rounds in his contender series fight he landed 75 strikes and five takedowns. This guy likes action.

Lima seems like the elder statesman in this fight, despite being just 25 years old. His 7-0 record consists of five KOs and two decisions. Despite going the distance in Contender Series, he actually was hit less than Severino was in his round and a half (25 to 37 significant strikes absorbed).

It is hard to have faith in fighters who haven’t reached the United States’ legal drinking age. But, as an aggressive underdog, Severino has my attention here. Lima is also a wildcard, the only thing we can bank on is action coming early. It also should be noted that sharper books have taken money on Severino.

Fight Winner: Igor Severino

Bet: Under 2.5 Rounds (-135), 1.35 Units to Win 1

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Mohammed “The Motor” Usman (+114) versus Mick Parkin (-135)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+135)

Not only is Usman the brother of a UFC Hall of Famer, he is also another “The Ultimate Fighter” champion on this card. He has a 10-2 record, with both losses coming to fighters with major MMA organization experience. Despite being a heavyweight, Usman routinely hits the scales at around 240 pounds, favoring his cardio and speed as opposed to size. He has four decision wins, two in his last two fights as a fully rostered member of the UFC.

Parkin also has a knack for going the distance in the octagon. After winning six straight inside the distance on the regional scene and Contender Series, he has won via decision in both of his UFC bouts.

Both of these fighters like to control fights on the ground. In these types of matchups I tend to default to the American. In high school, Usman was one of the top heavyweight wrestlers in Texas, and then played college football at the University of Arizona. If Parkin thinks he will be able to manhandle Usman, he may be in for a long night.

Fight Winner: Mohammed Usman

Bet: Mohammed Usman via Decision (+300), 1 Unit to Win 3

Best Bets Recap:

Justin Tafa to win via Knockout: (+215), 1 Unit to Win 2.15

AJ Dobson (+164), 1 Unit to Win 1.64

Talbott/Saiman: Fight does NOT go the Distance (+130), 1 Unit to Win 1.3

Pajuelo/Padilla: Under 2.5 Rounds (-125), 1.25 Units to Win 1

Fernando Padilla to Win Inside the Distance (+150), 1 Unit to Win 1.5

Parlay Steven Nguyen with Rose Namajunas (+140), 1 Unit to Win 1.4

Severino/Lima: Under 2.5 Rounds (-135), 1.35 Units to Win 1

Mohammed Usman via Decision (+300), 1 Unit to Win 3