UFC Picks & Predictions Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura
VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess has some strong takes on the UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura card and put pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts on every fight on the docket.
UFC Odds | UFC Betting Splits | Lou Finocchiaro’s article
BET HISTORY
Last Week: 5-2 (+3.66 Units)
Article History: 8-6 (+4.06 Units).
PICK’EM HISTORY
Last Week Pick’em Recap: 10-4 (71.4%)
Article History: 19-6 (76%)
MAIN EVENT:
Tai “Bam Bam” Tuivasa (-115) vs Marcin “Tybur” Tybura (-105)
Over 1.5 (-125) | Under 1.5 (-105)
Tuivasa is a one trick pony, seven of his eight UFC victories have come via KO in the first 1.5 rounds. Seven of Tybura’s eleven UFC victories have come via decision. The range of outcomes in this fight is certainly polarized, and there appears to be a strong correlation between the winning fighter and the total.
In Tuivasa’s 14 trips to the octagon, the fight has lasted longer than 1.5 rounds five times. He has won fights that go over 7 minutes and 30 seconds exactly once, making it to the final bell twice overall; a win vs Andrei Arlovski, and a loss to Blagoy Ivanov. Both of those opponents are outliers regarding their high decision rates in the UFC’s heavyweight division. Control of space and pace are their paths to victory. Not necessarily unlike the way Tybura has stacked up his wins.
But there is one key difference, Tybura is much more willing to take the fight to the ground than Arlovski and Ivanov. Over the course of his career, Tybura averages 1.39 takedowns/15 minutes in the octagon, with about 4.2 takedowns attempts in the same time frame.The only other fighterTuivasa has faced in the past 5 years with a takedown rate over 0.7 in the past 5 years is Serghei Spivac, who submitted Tuivasas in the second round. Despite not facing many proficient grapplers, Tuivasa’s takedown defense rate is 54%, meaning that almost half the time his opponents attempt a takedown, they secure it.
Tybura clearly has the grappling advantage. Striking is a lot closer, but still favors Tybura everywhere but in the power department. Tybura lands more at distance, and gets hit less. That is the toughest part about handicapping Tuivasa. Time and time again he shows a willingness to take a shot in order to land his own, much more powerful strike. Because of this, Tuivasas fights are generally short affairs regardless of who wins. Kill or be killed. And on Saturday Tuivasa definitely needs to be the killer as he has been finished in his last three fights.
Tybura is also coming off a loss versus a power puncher, the current interim heavyweight champion, Tom Aspinall.
When you line these fighters up, everything outside of age and knockout rate gets shoved to Tybura’s side. But age and power are two of the worst metrics to fade. Siding with Tuivasa comes down to banking on him landing the highlight shot early in the fight. Tybura has the same path to victory, even if that is not his preferred style. But he also has takedowns and the clinch in his arsenal as well.
I’ll be holding my breath, but I’m on Tybura in this one.
FIGHT WINNER: Marcin Tybura
BET: Marcin Tybura (-105), Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1
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Co-Main Event
Bryan “Pooh Bear” Battle (-180) versus Ange “The Last Ninja” Loosa (+150)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-210) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+160)
Battle is a “The Ultimate Fighter” champion who has seen his success on the reality show stick around on the big stage. He is 5-1 with the lone loss coming via decision as an underdog versus the highly regarded Rinat Fakretdinov. Four of Battle’s UFC victories have come via finish.
Loosa has never been finished in his mixed martial arts career, and all 3 of his trips to the octagon have gone to the judges scorecards. He also lost via decision to Jack Della Maddalena in Dana White’s Contender series. Loosa is active in the octagon both in striking and in grappling, landing 6.32 significant strikes per minute, and also averaging 2.25 takedowns per three rounds. In his most recent fights he has gone to the grappling well more often, landing an impressive 6 takedowns in his most recent bout versus Rhys McKee. The fault in Loosa’s game comes in his striking defense, as despite landing at a high clip, he still has a negative differential, absorbing 6.88 significant strikes per minute.
Battle will be the longer fighter here having a 3 inch height and reach advantage. Battle has a much cleaner significant strike differential, but his total strike defense is lacking at a meager 42%, meaning 58% of his opponents attacks make contact. Loosa is the much more aggressive fighter where Battle is much more willing to control distance with push kicks and jabs. However when Gabriel Green employed a Loosa-style early flurry in a fight versus Battle, the result was getting KO’d in the first round. That said, I see more value in the total of this fight than in a particular fighter.
Battle is capable of getting finishes anywhere in the octagon. Ange Loosa’s lack of UFC finishes is not for lack of trying. He has five knockouts in his career prior to the UFC and Battle has the worst striking defense of any of Loosa’s opponents.
FIGHT WINNER: Ange Losa
BET: Under 2.5 Rounds (+160)
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Kennedy “African Savage” Nzechukwu (-700) versus Ovince “OSP” St. Preux (+500)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+125) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-155)
Nzechukwu is a rangy, all heart fighter. Ovince St Preux has made his hay in the UFC by being an elite athlete with a multi-sport background, most notably he is a former Division I football player at the University of Tennessee. But OSP is now 40 years old, and a lot of the athleticism that made him a force in the octagon is no longer present. He has also lost four of his last six fights dating back to 2020.
The odds on this fight are a bit jarring considering OSP has ten more professional victories than Nzechukwu has total fights. But unfortunately for the veteran fighter, the skill set that gives Kennedy most trouble is slick kickboxing, which is not a good description of OSP’s style in his later years. All that said, these betting lines make this a tough fight to bet. My recommendation is to watch the fight, and see if OSP gets an early takedown and controls round 1. If that is the case I much more trust Nzechukwu’s gas tank and would recommend a live bet if the price is right.
FIGHT WINNER: Kennedy Nzechukwu
BET: PASS
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Christian “CeeRod” Rodriguez (+164) vs Isaac “The Midwest Choppa” Dulgarian (-198)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-110) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-120)
Rodriguez is 3-1 in the UFC with his lone loss coming when he was a late replacement in his debut versus Jonathan Pearce. He derailed the Raul Rosas Jr. hype train in his third trip to the octagon, winning as a +200 underdog. He then secured a decision victory versus the talented Cameron Saiman. But unfortunately, both of those fights were at bantamweight, and he missed on his cut on both occasions. Now he is moving up to 145 and will be facing the undefeated (1-0 in UFC) Dulgarian.
Dulgarian was an underdog in his UFC debut versus Francis Marshall. He finished that fight via ground and pound late in round 1. That said I am skeptical of that result as Marshall has been proven to be overrated by oddsmakers in his first two UFC fights.
I struggle to think Rodriguez will get overpowered now that he is fighting at his more natural weight. He comes from a good camp in Roufusport MMA and was actually the shorter fighter in his last two bouts at bantamweight. Dulgarian is yet to face an opponent with 10 professional fights, Rodriguez is 3-1 in the UFC with three of those fights coming versus opponents with cemented status in mixed martial arts’ premier organization
FIGHT WINNER: Christian Rodriguez
BET: Christian Rodriguez (+164), Risk 1 Unit to win 1.64
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Pannie “Banzai” Kianzad (+185) versus Macy Chiasson (-220)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-360) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+285)
Last time we saw Chiasson she was on her way to upsetting Irene Aldana at UFC 279, but a wild upkick to the liver ended her night. That fight was 18 months ago, and in that span we have seen Kianzad enter the octagon once, a decision loss to Ketlen Vieira. Chiasson is a much longer fighter with an advantage of 6 inches in reach and 4 inches in height. Kianzad is more active as a striker as well as more active.
Chiasson likes to mix in the takedowns but she is facing a fighter with a solid 71% takedown defense rate. Getting involved with fighters coming off a long layoff is always a tough proposition and despite the physical advantages, this does not look like a match up featuring a favorite of -220.
FIGHT WINNER: Pannie Kianzad
BET: Pass
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Gerald “GM3” Meerschaert (-238) versus Bryan “Bam Bam” Barbarena (+195)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+120) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-150)
Meerschaert is a submission specialist with one clear path to victory. Nine of the ten times he has had his hand raised in the octagon it has come by way of the sub. Barabarena is a brawler who tries to overwhelm his opponents with his hands. He has been submitted in two out of his last three fights. But he also is capable at securing the knockout, especially against aging fighters with suspect chins such as Meerschaert (KO’d in 4 of his 9 UFC losses).
That said, this fight will be determined by Meerschaert’s takedown success. If he gets it to the ground and can control Barbarena there, a submission is almost an inevitability. But if he can’t get the fight down, or if he can’t keep Barbarena down once the fight hits the mat the favorites options are severely diminished. These odds reek of recency bias with Barbarena being submitted in two of his last three fights. I line this one much closer than current odds.
FIGHT WINNER: Bryan Barberena
BET: Barbarena to win via KO or Decision (+205), Bet 0.5 Units to Win 1.025 Units
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Mike “Beast Boy” Davis (-500) vs Natan “Lethal” Levy (+380)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-210) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+160)
These odds are jarring because Davis and Levy’s UFC resumes are not all that dissimilar. They have lost versus their toughest opponents, and have taken care of business as favorites. Levy does a good job mixing in his karate style strikes with takedowns that diminish his opponents gas tanks. Davis is not afraid to scrap and also has the gas to strike full go for three rounds. I understand Davis as a favorite, but not to this degree.
FIGHT WINNER: Mike Davis
Bet: Natan Levy (+380), Risk 0.5 Units to Win 1.9 Units
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Josiane “Josi” Nunes (-148) vs Chelsea Chandler (+124)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-125) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-105)
Nunes is a tiny 5’2” in the UFC’s heaviest women’s division. That said, she is 3-0 in MMA’s top promotion with 7 KOs in 11 pro fights. She is small, but she has power. Chandler is 1-1 in the UFC losing a decision as a short underdog versus Norma Dumont in her last outing. Three out of her five professional victories have come inside the distance. Like a number of other fighters on this card, Nunes is an extremely active fighter who gets hit more than necessary. Chelsea fights at a much slower pace and has a decided advantage regarding takedowns considering Nunes is yet to secure one in the Octagon. Given Nunes’ outlier height, I actually give her a slight edge in this department. She has fought 5’8’ 145 pounders similar in stature to Chandler. Chandler may have trouble finding an analog for Nunes.
FIGHT WINNER: Josianne Nunes
BET: Pass
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Ode “The Jamaican Sensation” Osbourne (+130) versus Jafel “Pastor” Filho (-155)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+150) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-195)
Filho entered the octagon as a +650 underdog versus Mohammed Mokaev one year ago. He kept the fight much closer than the odds would have predicted in the mostly grappling affair. He eventually lost via submission in the final 30 seconds of the fight, but overall it was an eye opening result. In his second fight, he finished a UFC newcomer in the first round via submission in a near pick’em fight. As a 125 pounder with 18 pro fights, Filho has only seen the scorecards twice, with 14 of his 15 victories coming via finish.
Osbourne has had an up and down career in the UFC. He is sitting at 4-4 inside the octagon after he entered the organization at 8-2. Six of Osbourne’s eight trips to the octagon have not gone the distance. Both of these flyweights prefer to work quickly.
That said I think these odds are a bit long as both fighters have clear paths to victory. Filho will be at a disadvantage in striking exchanges, and is expected to have the upper hand on the ground. Osbourne will have nearly a 5 inch reach advantage, and boasts solid takedown defense over the course of his UFC career. The only thing that is keeping me from officially playing Ode is the fight-to-fight inconsistencies that have plagued his career thus far.
FIGHT WINNER: Ode Osbourne
BET: Pass
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Josh “Kuya” Culibao (-185) versus Danny “El Puma” Silva (+154)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-195) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+154)
Silva is making his UFC debut after winning via decision in his contender series scrap. Saturday will be Culibao’s seventh trip into the octagon. He lost his last time out as short underdog versus Lerone Murphy. Four of Culibao’s six UFC fights have gone to the judges’ scorecards. Four of Silva’s nine professional fights have gone the distance, additionally four of his seven amateur fights reached the final bell. Pro fight experience, especially inside the octagon paired with Culibao’s strong takedown defense are good indicators for success.
FIGHT WINNER: Josh Culibao
BET: PASS
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Cory “Poppins” McKenna (-175) vs Jaqueline “Jacque” Amorim (+145)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-200) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+154)
Both of these women are listed at 5’3” but Amorim has a TEN inch reach advantage. McKenna has proven a tough opponent in the octagon, going 3-1 in the octagon, 2-0 as an underdog. Amorim is 1-1 in her short career. Pre-UFC, Amirim had a 6 fight finishing streak. Despite the shorter UFC resume, I think Amorim should be the favorite on her feet due to better striking, the reach advantage, and a proven ability to finish fights once they reach the ground.
FIGHT WINNER: Jacqueline Amorim
Bet: Jacqueline Amorim (+145), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.45
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Thiago Moises (-375) vs Mitch “The Fight Stalker” Ramirez (+295)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-165) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+130)
Moises has been a good soldier for the UFC over his 11 trips to the octagon. He has fought the best in the division, he has taken out the trash. He was supposed to be fighting Brad Riddell on this card, but an injury forced a late swap. Enter Ramirez, who took a contender series fight up a weight class, was knocked out in the second round, and now two fights later is facing a guy with 6 UFC wins on his resume. Moises should win this fight, but his poor striking defense gives Ramirez the tiniest sliver of hope.
FIGHT WINNER: Thiago Moises
BET: Parlay Leg, see below
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Chad “The Monster” Anheliger (+142) versus Charalampos “The Ferocious” Grigoriou (-170)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-115) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-115)
Anheliger is trying to avoid having an NFL (not for long) UFC career. He won a contender series match, then got a KO versus an opponent who wasn’t ready for the big stage before losing his last two fights versus low tier UFC opponents. Grigoriou is debuting after a contender series KO victory. This fight feels like it was made to welcome Grigoriou to the UFC and send Anheliger out the door.
Fight Winner: Charalampos Grigoriou
Bet: Parlay: Grigoriou with Moises/Ramirez No Distance (+138). Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.38
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Best Bets Recap:
Marcin Tybura (-105), Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1
Battle/Loosa Under 2.5 Rounds (+160)
Christian Rodriguez (+164), Risk 1 Unit to win 1.64
Barbarena to win via KO or Decision (+205), Bet 0.5 Units to Win 1.025 Units
Natan Levy (+380), Risk 0.5 Units to Win 1.9 Units
Bet: Jacqueline Amorim (+145), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.45
Parlay: Grigoriou with Moises/Ramirez No Distance (+138). Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.38
