UFC Fight Night Best Bets, Picks and Predictions

VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess offers his UFC best bets for the Fight Night card and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts on every fight on the docket.

BET HISTORY
UFC Vegas 93: 2-4 (-1.77 Units, -25.84%)

Article History: 50-59 (-1.33 Units, -1.11%)

PICK’EM HISTORY

UFC Vegas 93: 7-4 (63.6%)

Article History: 102-73 (58.29%)

MAIN EVENT

Robert “The Reaper” Whittaker (-148) vs Ikram Aliskerov (+124)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+135)

Ikram Aliskerov deserves to be fighting ranked opponents, but going straight to #3 contender Robert Whittaker is quite an ask. That doesn’t mean he won’t get the job done, but this is a massive step up for the Dagestani prospect.

Aliskerov is 2-0 in the UFC, he won both fights in the first round, he also won a contender series fight. Overall, he is 15-1 as a professional fighter, with the one loss coming to Khamzat Chimaev (originally scheduled to fight Whittaker) five years ago in the middle eastern promotion Brave CF. Six of his professional wins have come via KO, five via submission, and three via decision. He has been to the third round in six of his 16 pro fights. This fight is a scheduled five-rounder, but I believe Aliskerov is going to do everything in his power to get out of the cage with his hand raised early. He is taking this fight on short notice (although he did have a camp, he was scheduled to fight last week versus two different opponents).

Robert Whittaker is the gatekeeper of all gatekeepers in the middleweight division. He is a former interim champion who rose to the top with virtually zero hype. He just kept stacking wins and eventually got the call, winning the vacant interim belt vs Yoel Romero. He ended up losing the title unification match vs Israel Adesanya at the height of his power. He is a tough handicap because, on paper, he doesn’t have many measurable qualities that stand out. He has good power; but isn’t a KO artist, he is a good wrestler; but not a collegiate champion, and he is a good striker; but doesn’t have a championship level boxing/Muay Thai/kickboxing background.

He is a true mixed martial artist who is good everywhere and weak nowhere. He started his UFC career at welterweight, but after moving up to middleweight, he went on an eight-fight winning streak, lost to Adesanya, won three more in a row, and then lost to Adesanya again. Since his rematch with Izzy, he is 2-1, with great performances vs Marvin Vettori and Paulo Costa, and a disappointing KO loss to Dricus Du Plessis sandwiched in the middle. The good news is his game plan versus Aliskerov does not need to be all that different than versus his original opponent, Khamzat Chimaev. He needs to keep his range, avoid grappling exchanges, and try to make it to round 3 where there is a good chance he will have the better gas tank onward.

I really want to believe Robert Whittaker’s veteran prowess will win the day here. Given his extremely short sample size compared to UFC-level competition, there are so many unknowns about Aliskerov. The one stat on the back of Aliskerov’s fighter card that sticks out is significant strikes absorbed per minute…. 7.15. That is not in line with championship-level UFC fighters in this era. It is over double Whittaker’s number of 3.45.

FIGHT WINNER: Robert Whittaker
BET: Robert Whittaker (-148) vs Aliskerov, Risk 1.48 Units to Win 1

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Co-Main Event

Sergei Pavlovich (-218) vs Alexander “Drago” Volkov (+180)
Over 1.5 Round (+105) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-135)

Serghei Pavlovich fights at one speed, 1000 MPH. From the opening bell, he is going for haymakers, and generally, he lands them. He is 6-2 in the UFC, all six of his wins have been round 1 knockouts, his two losses were round 1 knockout losses. Overall, he is 18-2 as a pro; seventeen of his fights have ended in round 1, all via knockout. He has had three decision victories in his career, but the last one occurred during the Fight Nights Global promotion in 2017. Like Ikram Aliskerov, he lands a ton of significant strikes per minute, 8.21 to be exact. This is a massive number for a heavyweight division full of guys who don’t throw much volume.

Alexander Volkov is a stalwart of the UFC’s heavyweight division who has shared the cage with numerous champions. He is a much more technical fighter than Pavlovich, but is also not opposed to getting out of the cage early. He is 11-4 in the UFC, seven of his victories are inside the distance, as are two of his losses. He is willing to take on any challenge which is why he hasn’t had a UFC win streak longer than three fights, after he banks a few Ws he tries his hand versus a top three contender. He can do damage. Maybe he doesn’t have the pure power of Pavlovich, but he does have 24 knockouts as a professional. And he did show a submission victory for the first time in his UFC career last time out versus Tai Tuivasa.

FIGHT WINNER: Sergei Pavlovich
BET: Under 1.5 Rounds (-135), Risk 1.35 Units to Win 1

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Kelvin Gastelum (-205) vs Daniel “D-Rod” Rodriguez (+170)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-260) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+195)

Just 32 years old, Kelvin Gastelum has had 22 fights in the UFC. He is a natural welterweight, but he has spent most of his professional career vs. bigger men in the middleweight division. He fought well versus middleweight champions, including Israel Adesanya, Robert Whittaker, Michael Bisping, and Chris Weidman, but more often than not his physical limitations played a factor in the results. It is now or never for Gastelum. He returned to the welterweight division in his last fight vs. Sean Brady and was manhandled, losing via kimura in the third round. Gastelum’s back is against the wall, and he needs a strong performance here if he is ever going to live up to the potential he showed after winning The Ultimate Fighter at welterweight nearly 12 years ago.

Daniel Rodriguez is a consummate professional and has had some memorable scraps in his 10-fight UFC career. Two of his seven victories in the octagon have come as an underdog and he is generally a tough out for every opponent. The problem is that D-Rod is now 37, and he is coming off back to back inside the distance losses versus two opponents who are not known for their high-profile finishes: Ian Machado Garry and Neil Magny. On paper, he is a considerably more active striker than Gastelum and more accurate. Even in two of his losses, he landed more significant strikes than his opponents.

Gastelum has not won via finish since a 2017 knockout of Michael Bisping, Rodriguez hasn’t since a 2021 KO vs Preston Parsons. It is easy to understand why this fight is a heavy favorite to go the distance. Gastelum often slows down fights, and Rodriguez throws more volume than power. That said, both of these guys have their backs against the wall and desperation could play a factor.

FIGHT WINNER: Kelvin Gastelum
BET: Rodriguez OVER 57.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115), Risk 1.15 units to Win 1

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Shara “Bullet” Magomedov (-550) vs Antonio “Malvado” Trócoli (+410)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+114) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-145)

Shara Magomedov is one of the most hyped prospects in the UFC right now. He has a distinctive off-color right eye due to injury, and a 12-0 record with ten knockouts. He is 1-0 in the UFC, a decision victory versus Bruno Silva. In that fight, he outstruck his opponent 113-65 while being taken down three times. He was a heavy favorite to get the finish, but learned that guys across the cage from you in the UFC are hardly ever going to be easy outs.

Antonio Trócoli was supposed to fight Ikram Aliskerov last week, but both fighters were rebooked when Khamzat Chimaev fell off the card. He is actually the second replacement opponent for Magomedov after Joilton Lutterbach was flagged for an illegal substance, something Trócoli knows all about. He won a Contender series fight in 2019 via submission, but the result was changed to No Contest because he failed a drug test. He has also withdrawn from two subsequent scheduled fights in the UFC for various reasons. As a pro, Trócoli is 12-3, 1 NC, with eight victories coming inside the distance. One of his losses was due to KO, and the other two came on the scorecards.

This fight has come together in a very haphazard fashion. I can see Trocoli trying to draw it out and maintain some dignity, or I can see him throwing caution to the wind. I believe Magomedov is the substantially superior fighter, but there are a lot of variables in this contest that make it a tough handicap as far as finding a +EV angle goes.

FIGHT WINNER: Shara Magomedov
BET: Pass

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Johnny Walker (-125) vs Volkan “No Time” Oezdemir (+105)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+120)

Johnny Walker is the UFC Light Heavyweight Division’s enigma. One fight he will look like he is ready to challenge for the title, next time out he will fight with the IQ of someone who has never been in the cage before. He is flamboyant, he is flashy, and he can find finishes. There is a lot to like and a lot to worry about. He has five knockout losses as a pro, three in the UFC, including one in January versus Magomed Ankalaev. He has a freakish reach of 82” to go along with his imposing 6’6” height. He uses those limbs not just for submissions but also for knockouts.

Volkan Oezdemir is a forgotten man in the light heavyweight division. Six years ago, he fought for a belt versus Daniel Cormier but lost that bout and his subsequent three. He came back with some wins and has mostly been a middling member of the roster for the majority of his career. He hasn’t won via knockout since 2017 and hasn’t been knocked out since 2020 vs Jiri Prochazka. Finding his level is hard because he has lost to great fighters and beaten inexperienced guys. One thing is for certain: Johnny Walker probably isn’t too worried about a knockout loss in this matchup. Instead Oezdemir is a grinder, he wants to lean on his opponents, take them to the ground, and break their will.

I worry about Walker’s chin, but I don’t foresee it being tested in this matchup. I think that this is a fight where the flashy fighter can flourish. I may regret that if he starts round 1 with his chin outstretched and his hands down.

FIGHT WINNER: Johnny Walker
BET: Johnny Walker (-125), Risk 1.25 Units to win 1

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Nasrat Haqparast (-238) vs Jared Gordon (+195)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-230) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+175)

Nasrat Haqparast is 8-4 in the UFC and 16-5 as a professional. For most of his career in the octagon, he has been a proverbial grinder, winning volume over power and position overreaching for submissions in grappling exchanges. It is not a good way to gain a ton of fans and catch the attention of the media, but it is a great way to keep those UFC paychecks coming in. However perhaps he has turned a new leaf. In his last fight, he won in the first round via KO vs the weathered Jamie Mullarkey.

Like Haqparast, Jared Gordon also has eight wins in the UFC, with six of those victories coming via decision. Also like Haqparast, he won his last fight via first-round KO in a flip of his normal fight script. He is much more of a wrestler than Haqparast, averaging 1.95 landed per 15 minutes in the cage. However this plan may run into an issue as Haqparast has very good takedown defense.

Haqparast has always had solid hands, and after his early finish, he may have a bit more confidence in letting them fly. He is seven years the younger fighter and has a four-inch reach advantage. I believe that he is rounding into his own, and his career trajectory will continue to be on the upswing after this fight.

FIGHT WINNER: Nasrat Haqparast
BET: Nasrat Haqparast via KO (+225), Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.25

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Muhammed “Hillman” Naimov (-112) vs Felipe Lima (-108)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-125) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-105)

Muhammed Naimov got a shot in the UFC as a replacement opponent for Jamie Mullarkey up a weight class at lightweight. He shocked the world with a second round KO victory. He followed that performance up with a decision victory over Nathaniel Wood as a +265 underdog. He was no longer an underdog in his third trip to the UFC, winning in the first round due to opponent injury as a -600 favorite. His results have been great, but there are perhaps a few underlying metrics that could be cause for concern; specifically a sub par significant striking accuracy rate of 46%, and a significant strike defense rate of just 41%. Additionally he lands 1.94 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage, but is only 33% accurate.

Felipe Lima is a 12-1 fighter who is currently on a 12-fight winning streak. He is making his UFC debut and was able to skip out on the contender series route. As far as strength of schedule goes, it’s alright for a guy who has never fought in a major North American promotion, but nothing outstanding. Six of his victories have been via decision, 4 via knockout, and 2 via submission.

I am leaning towards the guy with more octagon pedigree here, but we will learn a lot about Lima in this bout.

FIGHT WINNER: Muhammed Naimov
Bet: Pass

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Rinat “Gladiator” Fakhretdinov (-345) vs Nicolas “Danish Dynamite” Dalby (+275)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-250) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+190)

Rinat Fakhretdinov is an impressive mixed martial artist with a 22-2-1 pro record. He also competes at a high level in wrestling and grappling competitions while maintaining his UFC career. His last fight was a draw vs. Elizeu Zaleski in a fight in which Fakhretdinov was a -370 favorite. Fakhretdinov came out hot in that fight but was nearly finished multiple times in the final round. Nicolas Dalby is not a guy you can gas out against.

Nicolas Dalby is on a four fight win streak and was the underdog in the last three. Most recently he defeated Gabriel Bonfim in round 2 via knees and ground punches as a +455 underdog. I’ve used the word grinder a ton in this writeup, but Dalby is another one. If he survives Fakhretdinov’s early onslaught, he will be live in the later rounds. Dalby is 7-3-1, 1 NC in the UFC, and has never been finished in defeat. This is his second stint in the UFC and his record this go around is 7-1, 1 NC this go round.

FIGHT WINNER: Nicolas Dalby
BET: Nicolas Dalby (+275), Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.75

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Muin “Tajik” Gafurov (-155) vs Kyung Ho “Mr Perfect” Kang (+130)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)

Muin Gafurov is 0-2 in the UFC after winning the LFA Bantamweight Championship. He has not had an easy path in MMA’s top organization, his debut was vs. the surging John Castaneda, and the follow-up was versus Said Nurmagoomedov. That said, I see a lot of flaws in Muin Gafurov’s 18-6 record. He fought two UFC-level opponents before making the jump to the big stage, Chad Anheliger and John Lineker and lost both fights. Nine of his pro victories were against opponents who did not have winning records.

At age 36, Kyung Ho Kang is reaching the final stage of his UFC career. He is 8-4, 1 NC in the UFC and has won two of his last three fights. He is susceptible to the submission loss, as all four of his UFC losses came in this fashion. Outside of those losses, the rest of his UFC fights have gone the distance.

FIGHT WINNER: Kyung Ho Kang
BET: Pass

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Magomed “MG” Gadzhiyasulov (-345) vs Brendson “The Gorilla” Ribeiro (+275)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+145) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-188)

Gadzhiyasulov is making his UFC debut after a decision win in Contender Series. He is an undefeated 8-0 fighter with 4 KO wins and 1 via submission. He is on the KHK MMA team out of Bahrain with Islam Makhachev and Ikram Aliskerov, but is nowhere near as experienced as those guys. His last two fights were versus fighters with winning records, however the combined records of his first six opponents was 3-8.

Brendson Ribeiro is 15-6, 1 NC as a pro and 0-1 in the UFC. He had the unfortunate task of welcoming Mingyang Zhang to the UFC and was KO’d in the first round. Overall, he is a finisher, with nine wins via KO and six submissions. He has been finished in five of his six losses. This fight is in hostile territory but I’m not so certain “MG” will be in for a soft landing into the UFC. The question is how will his takedown defense hold up?

Fight Winner: Brendson Ribeiro
Bet: Brendson Ribeiro (+275), Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.75

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Long Xiao (-125) vs Chang Ho Lee (+105)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-298) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+220)

Long Xiao is a road to the UFC veteran making his UFC debut. He lost a Contender Series bout in 2021, the only loss in his last 18 MMA fights. He is a former bantamweight champion of Chinese promotion WLF W.A.R.S. He was an underdog in both of his road to UFC fights, but won via unconventional decisions, a split and a majority.

Chang Ho Lee is also making the jump to the big stage after back-to-back Road to UFC victories. He is the more inexperienced pro with a 9-1 record.

There isn’t a ton to work on here given the level of competition both fighters have faced. However I do think there is a shot at a finish, and the play is worth a flier.

FIGHT WINNER: Long Xiao
BET: Fight Does Not Go The Distance (+180)

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BEST BETS RECAP:

Robert Whittaker (-148) vs Aliskerov, Risk 1.48 Units to Win 1
Pavlovich/Volkov Under 1.5 Rounds (-135), Risk 1.35 Units to Win 1
D Rodriguez OVER 57.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115), Risk 1.15 units to Win 1
Johnny Walker (-125) vs Oezdemir, Risk 1.25 Units to win 1
Nasrat Haqparast win via KO (+225) vs Gordon, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.25
Nicolas Dalby (+275) vs Fakhretdinov, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.75
Brendson Ribeiro (+275) vs Gadzhiyasulov, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.75
Xiao/Lee Fight Does Not Go The Distance (+180)