UFC Mexico City Predictions:
This week, the UFC travels from London to Mexico City, Mexico for UFC FN Mexico City. This event is scheduled for 13 fights with preliminary bouts beginning at 1 p.m. PT and the main card dropping at 4 p.m. PT.
As one may expect, this Mexico City card features Mexican athletes or fighters of Mexican descent in 11 of the 13 scheduled fights. There are but two big boy fights (170 pounders and above), which may be the UFC’s way of cloaking the fact that the altitude in Mexico City is an absolute factor for those who do not prepare appropriately, and still some factor to those who do.
Ten of the 12 non-main event fights are lined at 2.5 Rds Over, so there may be an opportunity in some fight totals for those able to identify athletes that have just arrived in town and believe they can fight effectively for three rounds without elevational effect.
On the positive side, understanding who may have arrived early to ‘Cuidado de Mexico’ and who arrived recently would be of great benefit.
Last week’s releases performed as poorly as possible. 0-3 -2.5u.
Digital to date: 6-8 -1.70u
Favorites in the UFC are running 64-47-5 or 56.3%.
Brandon Moreno -230 vs. Steve Erceg +195
Flyweight (125 pounds) main event
Eighth-ranked Australian athlete Steve Erceg leaped up the flyweight rankings after his impressive decision loss at the hands of current champion Alexandre Pantoja. Then, in his follow-up, he was destroyed in his most recent fight as a formidable favorite by Aussie Kai Kara-France.
Erceg is a balanced mixed martial artist. He can grapple a good game as well. He has size, length, and effective striking ability. The fact that he provided current flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja a bona fide scare in their recent title fight (Erceg’s fourth UFC bout) is what the Erceg camp needs to concentrate on building upon as opposed to the non-championship performance Erceg put out against France.
The issue for Erceg in this fight is that he steps up in class of opponent from his previous foe France, to fight the Mexican Moreno, who is an experienced, savvy, former flyweight champion. Erceg’s confidence may be fragile as he enters this epic five-round main event against this lethal of an adversary off that KO loss.
This fight is foundational for both fighters, as Erceg will surely fall out of the top-10 rankings with a loss to Moreno. But with a win, he can propel himself right back into top-five relevance amongst the elite in the Flyweight division, with Moreno being the one free-falling down the ranks.
Former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno is a Mexican icon for being the first to display mixed martial arts expertise in the UFC and capture a UFC title for Mexico.
He’s put himself through a torrid pace over the last seven years, fighting the division’s elite and besting all comers save for a recent loss to Brandon Royval, which forced Moreno to take a rest and refresh his mental and physical being.
Off that rest, Moreno fought the division’s top contender in Amir Albazi last November. He painted his fence in a very one-sided decision where Moreno looked his old championship self, quick, fluid and razor sharp.
Moreno, the number two-ranked fighter in the division, could surely be the next to challenge flyweight king Pantoja for a fourth attempt to earn victory over the Brazilian grappler with a decisive win Saturday.
Once the bell for this fight rings, it will be fascinating to determine which of these two aggressive strikers will own the center of the cage. Erceg’s the taller, younger, more forceful fighter, but Moreno has the experience, footwork, reach advantage and championship guile.
Both athletes own slight positive strike differentials. Erceg’s takedown defense is lacking despite the fact he’s faced few capable wrestling/grappling adversaries outside of the pint-sized champion Pantoja. This may be a target area for the Mexican.
Moreno’s striking will be on par with Erceg’s, but his wrestling chops are well more refined and advanced. It is on the ground, against the fence and in close quarters that I believe Moreno will want to take this fight because it is where he will have his greatest advantages.
Smothering Erceg’s striking with close positioning and forcing the Aussie striker to wrestle/grapple in a defensive manner will have a draining effect on his cardio. It will surely be step one in the process of chopping this man down for Moreno.
From there, the five-round experience of Moreno, still only 31, will be apparent in providing the former champion choices in how to attack the less experienced Erceg.
As long as Moreno avoids standing and trading, then he has the ability to wear the Aussie down over time and control this fight into the third round and beyond, where Moreno is his best.
A Moreno late finish is not out of the question, with decision being his most likely method of victory. By the way, Monday afternoon Moreno was -175.
Total in this fight 4.5 Rds Over -240.
Manuel Torres -110 vs. Drew Dober -110
Lightweight (155 pounds) co-main event
Bombs away. Thirty-six-year-old Omahan Drew Dober is a slugging sensation who has grappling prowess yet chooses to avoid using it in favor of providing fans electric fights and fantastic finishes, of which he has been on both sides.
Dober unleashes 4.69 significant strikes per minute and receives 4.25 significant strikes per minute, which exemplifies his willingness to open up his offense and rip.
For Dober, fighting in the UFC is about pointing to the center of the octagon and seeing whose haymakers will ‘tilt’ the other athlete in the fury of the firefight.
Mexican striking sensation Manuel Torres is Dober’s foe Saturday. Torres is a straight banger himself, but his strike differential is substantially better as Torres realizes a +2.64 significant strike advantage over his foes per round.
Besides lethal striking acumen, Torres, 15-3 professionally, is an accomplished grappler, as seven of his finishes are via submission, with seven via strikes.
Torres is a flat-out aggressive Mexican assassin, and it’s this clash of machismo fighting styles that makes this fight as anticipated as it is among MMA fans.
Torres is seven years younger than Dober; he’ll hold a two-inch height advantage to complement his three-inch reach advantage and six-inch leg reach edge. While the experience lies with Dober, so too does the wear and tear. The younger, taller, longer Torres enters this fight on the ascent and still climbing, while it is Dober trying to protect his standing in the division.
This fight opened Dober -125 and has now been bet to a basic pick-em
UFC Mexico City Best Bet: Manuel Torres -110
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Under -195
I’ll look into round variations as I do lean to the Over here.
The ONLY 1.5 Round line on the Mexico City slate!
Joe Pyfer -300 vs. Kelvin Gastelum +250
Middleweight (185 pounds)
This fight and the co-main event are situated on this card to whip the Mexican crowd that has come to the arena to see bloodshed, violence, and the rendering of people into unconsciousness into a frenzy.
Joe Pyfer is five inches taller than his opponent. He’s also five years younger, and he’ll sport a dynamic reach advantage with both arms and legs. These are tremendous advantages to carry into a fight that looks on paper like a stand-up war.
Pyfer’s not only a power striker, but he’s also an ascending grappler, but he is still in need of footwork, speed, and quickness development. A substantial favorite in this confrontation, he is still relatively young in his MMA evolution. Feeding him to an experienced former championship contender may be rushing his progress just a bit.
Kelvin Gastelum has been trying to find advantage in fights for years. Too large for welterweight and seemingly too undersized for middleweight, Gastelum has struggled to string wins together against men who sport similar physical advantages to him that Pyfer does.
The difference here is that Gastelum’s been in with the elite of two divisions. He can move with nimble ability and can strike with ferocious power. He has that Mexican granite jaw which allows him to step in, plant his feet and hurl.
The pricing on this fight seems just a bit too wide. I am interested in Gastelum in this spot but will wait and let the parlay players continue to pound Pyfer until later in the week, then revisit this fight, its pricing, and its props.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -120
The ‘Bout Business Podcast is where all my final UFC FN Mexico City releases can be found. Access it at GambLou.com around noon PT Friday. Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.
