The model continues to roll to start 2026, going 5-1 last week and improving to 20-5 overall on the year. That’s an 80% clip through the early stretch of the season, but if you’ve followed this space long enough, you know the focus isn’t on chasing heaters. It’s on staying disciplined when the data gets thin.
This week’s stop is UFC Mexico, headlined by former two-time flyweight champion Brandon Moreno taking on rising contender Lone’er Kavanagh. On paper, it feels like a bounce-back opportunity for Moreno in front of a home crowd. But once we dig into the numbers, things aren’t quite that simple.
Mexico City cards can be tricky from both a stylistic and betting perspective, and this slate in particular lacks strong, clean data edges across the board. That means selective spots, smaller exposure, and patience in the prop markets.
Let’s break down where the model sees value and where it tells us to stay away.
Be sure to catch the full breakdown on the First Strike podcast, available now wherever you listen and on YouTube. This week Dave Ross and I welcomed Dan Vreeland from the Sports Gambling Podcast Network and host of the MMA Gambling Podcast.
Cristian Quiñonez vs Kris Moutinho
This fight is the definition of “just because it’s on the card and we have data, doesn’t mean we need to bet it.”
Cristian Quiñonez hasn’t fought since February 2024. Two straight submission losses. Two years off. That’s not exactly a confidence-building setup for a -675 favorite.
Across from him is Kris Moutinho — and the data here is wildly distorted.
Moutinho’s UFC sample is tiny and chaotic. Three UFC fights. Two first-round finishes against him. A brutal debut against Sean O’Malley that skewed everything. His numbers are so warped they barely resemble usable data.
His xR% is 1%.
Yes. One percent.
His significant strike differential? -10.16 per minute.
That’s not bad. That’s statistical carnage.
But here’s the nuance: outside the UFC, he put together a five-fight win streak. His skillset may not hold up against top-tier UFC talent, but the numbers we’re feeding into the model are coming from absolute mismatch scenarios.
The model would obviously lean Quiñonez.
But trusting a guy off a two-year layoff at -675? Hard no.
This is a clean pass.
Ailín Pérez vs Macy Chiasson
Now we get to a fight with actual usable data.
Ailín Pérez has quietly put together a five-fight win streak since dropping her UFC debut. Her last win, a decision over Karol Rosa as an underdog (+205), was solid.
Macy Chiasson, meanwhile, is trying to stop a two-fight skid. She’s 4-4 since 2021 and has had some weight issues along the way.
On paper, this is a tight back and forth data fight.
- Pérez xR%: 66%
- Chiasson xR%: 60%
- Macy holds a 6-inch reach advantage, along with a 6-inch height advantage
- Slight strength-of-schedule edge to Chiasson as well
Striking numbers are close:
- Pérez: 3.10 sig. strikes landed per minute, +1.31 differential
- Macy: 3.50 sig. strikes landed per minute, +0.64 differential
Both absorb under three per minute. Pérez in particular does a great job limiting damage, allowing just 1.79 significant strikes per minute.
On the mat, Pérez has small edges in volume and accuracy:
- 23 takedowns vs 19
- 47% accuracy vs 37%
But Macy is defensively sound at 73% takedown defense.
This one was interesting because the first run of the model landed right on the number with Pérez, around 62–64%.
After adjustments, it actually tilted slightly toward Chiasson:
- 58.17% win probability
- But with low confidence
Even at +150, the confidence level just isn’t high enough to justify it.
It feels like the model has doubted Pérez before and been wrong. That hesitation shows up again here.
Dog or pass.
Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green
Yes. It’s 2026.
Yes. We’re still breaking down King Green fights.
Green is 39 years old. 28 UFC fights. Debuted in 2013. And somehow…
He still has a 73% xR%.
That surprised me.
Zellhuber, meanwhile, sits at 51% xR% and is on a two-fight losing streak. Including a loss as a -890 favorite against Michael Johnson in his last outing.
Zellhuber is long and striking-heavy:
- 95% of time at distance
- 5.50 significant strikes landed per minute
- But a -0.32 differential
- Absorbing 5.83 per minute
That’s a red flag.
Green’s numbers are better than expected:
- 6.40 significant strikes per minute
- +2.68 differential
- Absorbing just 3.71
Now yes, his chin has been rocked a few times. He’s been knocked down six times in the UFC. But he’s still active, still slick, and at times competitive.
The model shocked me here:
- King Green win probability: 70%
- Market price: +380
That’s an enormous discrepancy.
This might be one of the smallest betting cards of the year for me, but this is the one spot where I may sprinkle something small on the dog.
Not because I “love” it.
Because at +380, that number is mispriced according to the model.
Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh
The main event is trickier than it looks.
Moreno is coming off the first TKO loss of his career just two months ago against Tatsuro Taira. That’s a quick turnaround after a rough finish.
Kavanagh is also coming off a TKO loss against Charles Johnson, his first professional loss of his career.
At first glance, this felt like an automatic bounce-back spot for Moreno.
Former two-time champ. Massive strength-of-schedule edge. Fighting at home in Mexico.
But the numbers say… pump the brakes.
- Moreno xR%: 59%
- Kavanagh xR%: 61%
Striking:
- Moreno: 3.89 per minute, +0.27 differential
- Kavanagh: 4.24 per minute, +0.58 differential
Kavanagh actually has strong clinch/ground control metrics (78% control rate), but he hasn’t really been tested against elite opposition yet.
Moreno’s résumé dwarfs his, which matters.
The model lands on Moreno, but barely.
- 59.91% win probability
- Market: around -205
There just isn’t enough value at that price.
And in full transparency, the model has been hot overall, but it’s been missing on main events lately. 1-4 in main events this year so far.
There’s a trend of veteran versus rising stars. Gaethje beats Pimblett, Volk beats Lopes, Bautista beats Oliveira, and Strickland beats Hernandez.
Do we see the same here?
This feels like a stay-away unless the line moves significantly.
My gut says Lone’er Kavanagh has a real shot to surprise people here. But I have to trust my data and wait to see these lines closer to fight night.
That does it for UFC Mexico. The model remains in strong form at 20-5 to start the year, but this is the type of card where discipline matters more than momentum. There are a few interesting angles, but overall this is a lower-volume slate with tighter edges.
We don’t need to spray the board every fight night. Starting the year strong the way we have, this is the kind of card you protect from your bankroll.
I can live through the model predicting an 0-4 night, but we don’t want the bankroll taking any collateral damage.
For more in-depth analysis, be sure to check out the First Strike podcast, available on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts. You can also follow along throughout fight week on X: @TheRobbeo and @drosssports for updates, leans, and any late adjustments.
Good luck this weekend.
Model Predictions | Win Prob. %
- Brandon Moreno | 59.91%
- King Green | 70.98%
- Edgar Cháirez | 57.14%
- Macy Chiasson | 58.17%
*BOLD fighters are in play
