UFC Paris Predictions:
Paris is the host city for this week’s UFC Fight Night production. This fight card is scheduled for 13 bouts, highlighting an international set of combatants, many of whom arrive to face the nine French athletes that will be competing on this slate.
Only five of the 13 bouts are lined competitively, which is getting to be the case as the UFC continues to flood its roster with low-end, unqualified, and inexperienced athletes.
Last week, favorites went 8-3, pushing their record to a staggering 249-97-10, a 70% rate. Traditionally, favorites win at about a 63% clip. Regression? Let’s hope so, and soon.
Last week, we banked the first leg of a two-fighter parlay as Su Mudaerji won a decision against Alex Perez.
Su -215 in pocket provides readers with a firm advantage on Arman Tsarukyan, who is currently priced -380 (Tsarukyan fights Mauricio Ruffy on September 19), as we hold Tsarukyan tickets at a net price of -115!
On to Paris
Dan Hooker + 400 vs. Salahdine Parnasse -500
Lightweight (155 pounds) main event
Parisian Parnasse makes a main event headline spot in his UFC debut. Unusual as that may seem, Parnasse arrives in the UFC fairly well credentialed, having earned two titles in KSW at featherweight and lightweight.
Parnasse is trained in boxing, BJJ and Muay Thai. He is a highly athletic fighter who uses movement, angles and grappling all to his advantage in fights.
As a mixed martial artist, Parnasse stands 23-2 with eight wins via KO, seven via submission, and another eight via decision.
The one issue I can uncover about Parnasse is that his level of competition is quite inadequate, so Hooker, his opponent, is a substantial step up based on the elites Hooker has traded with.
From Australia comes the aforementioned Dan ‘the Hangman’ Hooker to try to take the steam away from Parnasse’s Parisian debut. Hooker is currently the organization’s 12th-ranked lightweight.
Hooker is a grizzled UFC veteran who has competed for more than a decade against the top talent in the UFC lightweight division.
Hooker’s motive is singular in purpose: to provide his adversary with an all-out stand-up war and be the man who remains standing when the dust clears.
After defeating a ranked contender in Poland’s Mateusz Gamrot, Hooker has dropped his last two bouts to elite lightweight talent in Benoit Saint-Denis and Arman Tsarukyan.
Hooker will have the height and reach advantage. He has competed against tougher competition.
Parnasse, though inexperienced against UFC-level competition, is lightning fast, offers diversified fight weaponry, and is eight years the younger combatant in this fight.
Hooker has been enlisted by the UFC to make this fight with the Frenchman to determine whether Parnasse can cut the Poupon or not.
Hooker, who is closer in fight years to 40 than his actual 36 years, is more than up for this challenge despite the betting market investing Euros on a fighter I regard as relatively risky as a favorite here, Parnasse.
Parnasse will look to make an instant impression on the UFC with a sensational victory, but will that add to the pressure for this 27-year-old fighter stepping up in class and fighting in front of his fellow countrymen?
Parnasse has finished his last five opponents in a row and now steps up to be tested by a legitimate top-15 UFC lightweight.
Somehow, someway, I believe Hooker can make a fight of this!
Total in this fight stands: 3.5 Rds Under -260
Fares Ziam -155 vs. Axel Sola +135
Lightweight (155 pounds) co-main event
This is a battle between Ziam from Lyon, France, and Sola from Nice, France.
Both of these lightweights are similar in height, reach and age. The difference between these two is that Sola is a southpaw, which will add some complexity to this French fracas.
Ziam enters this fight off a loss to Tom Nolan, while Sola corrected his loss to Mason Jones two fights back with a victory over Brazilian Ismael Bonfim in his last outing.
Both men carry high risk/reward into this fight: the victor will more than likely be ranked, and the loser will need to put together more victories to earn their way into the top15.
Ziam has the UFC experience, and he’s the more fluid-moving, well-rounded fighter, while Sola is a mean, aggressive, junkyard dog who needs to convert any fight into a filthy, grimy brawl.
I handicap Sola as the more forceful, stronger man in the cage and believe this price should be closer to a pick ’em.
In a fight that could be the fight of the night, I’ll advise an investment in Axel Sola +140 to upset Fares Ziam this weekend in Paris.
Friday morning, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms and on GambLou.com. Catch my final releases for this week’s card there. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights from France!
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