The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, September 2, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Over the total is 19-3 (86.4%, +15.80 units) in Mariners-Red Sox games at Fenway Park since 2019
– The ROI on this trend is 71.8%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-BOS (o/u at 8.5)

Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 276-178 in their last 454 tries (+46.36 units, ROI: 10.2%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-132 at AZ)

Trend: Under the total is 28-12-2 (+14.80 units) when MIL faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-CHC (o/u at 8)

Trend: San Francisco is 3-17 in the last 20 starts by Landen Roupp
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+129 at PIT)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, with a month left, they are now 136-204 start for -27.78 units (-8.2% ROI) after losing about 37.5 units over the 2-1/2 months. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season, it’s usual territory, and continues to fall fast!
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+133 vs SD), WASHINGTON (+119 vs ATL), COLORADO (+136 vs BAL)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 87-48 for -18.62 units, ROI -13.8%!
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-252 vs STL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 281-345 for -27.70 units, and comes off a rough two-week stretch, giving back over 17 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+109 vs TOR), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+118 at HOU), MIAMI (-107 at KC)

Better bullpen small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 237-160 for +47.76 units, an ROI of +12%.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-114 vs DET)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 174-199 start for -38.88 units (ROI -10.4%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+119 vs ATL)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 146-169 for -1.20 units. However, it has lost -14.50 units over the last two months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (+138 at TEX), ARIZONA (+110 vs PHI), DETROIT (-106 at MIN)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 480-504 but for +32.11 units and an ROI of 3.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+110 vs PHI), ATHLETICS (+138 at TEX), DETROIT (-106 at MIN)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 420-474 but for +91.82 units and an ROI of 10.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (+114 at BOS), NY METS (+149 at TB)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,219-2,096 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -269.48 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, PITTSBURGH, WASHINGTON, SEATTLE, MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE, ST LOUIS

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2285-2873 (44.3%) for -274.81 units and an ROI of -5.3% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (+149 at TB), BALTIMORE (-164 at COL), DETROIT (-106 at MIN), TORONTO (-131 at CLE)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 364-319 (53.3%) for +28.43 units and an ROI of 4.2% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-156 vs SF)

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 114-166 SU (-26.11 units, ROI: -9.3%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+136 vs BAL)

Bats revert to the mean after high-scoring outing
Teams having scored 7+ runs the previous day have slowed down when playing as day game intraleague underdogs/pick em’s with high totals (>= 9.5), as Under the total is 149-108-17 (58%) since the end of July 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-WSH (o/u at 9.5)

Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 205-241 SU record for +42.46 units and an ROI of 9.5% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+129 at PIT)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 276-178 in their last 454 tries (+46.36 units, ROI: 10.2%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-132 at AZ)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 587-574 for +24.09 units, good for +2.1% ROI. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: NY METS +149 (+25 diff), PHILADELPHIA +110 (+15)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MILWAUKEE -157 (+30 diff), PITTSBURGH -156 (+22), SAN DIEGO -161 (+20), KANSAS CITY -112 (+18), BALTIMORE -164 (+16), ATLANTA -143 (+15), BOSTON -137 (+14), NY YANKEES -171 (+13)

If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 119-94 for +13.15 units and an ROI of 6.2%.  

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: STL-LAD UNDER 8 (-0.7)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) SAN DIEGO (73-66) at (902) CINCINNATI (66-73)
Trend: Casey Mize’s teams are 20-13 (+4.93 units) in his last 33 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-161 at CIN)

(905) PHILADELPHIA (79-60) at (906) ARIZONA (73-67)
Trend: Under the total is 31-16-4 (+13.40 units) in AZ day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-AZ (o/u at 9)

(907) SAN FRANCISCO (57-82) at (908) PITTSBURGH (68-71)
Trend: SF is 3-17 in the last 20 starts by Landen Roupp
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+129 at PIT)

(909) MILWAUKEE (86-53) at (910) CHICAGO-NL (78-61)
Trend: Under the total is 28-12-2 (+14.80 units) when MIL faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-CHC (o/u at 8)

(915) SEATTLE (65-74) at (916) BOSTON (75-64)
Trend: SEA is 27-44 (-19.06 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+1.5 at BOS)
Trend: SEA is 5-14 (-10.27 units) with starter Bryce Miller vs AL East opponents the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+114 at BOS)

(917) TORONTO (68-71) at (918) CLEVELAND (70-68)
Trend: Over the total is 15-5 (+9.40 units) when CLE faces non-divisional AL teams with starter Joey Cantillo in his
career
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-CLE (o/u at 7)

(919) DETROIT (63-75) at (920) MINNESOTA (67-72)
Trend: Dean Kremer’s teams are 38-20 (+13.35 units) in his last 58 home starts
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-114 vs DET)

(921) CHICAGO-AL (73-65) at (922) HOUSTON (70-69)
Trend: Over the total is 52-27-1 (+22.30 units) in CWS night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-HOU (o/u at 8.5)

(923) NEW YORK-AL (79-60) at (924) LOS ANGELES-AL (53-86)
Trend: NYY is 18-7 (+6.78 units) versus opponents with a losing record with starter Cam Schlittler in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-171 at LAA)
Trend: Under the total is 45-27-1 (+15.30 units) in LAA home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-LAA (o/u at 7)

(925) BALTIMORE (69-70) at (926) COLORADO (53-86)
Trend: Under the total is 25-18 (+5.75 units) with starter Trevor Rogers since the start of the 2025 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-COL (o/u at 11.5)

(927) NEW YORK-NL (62-77) at (928) TAMPA BAY (83-55)
Trend: TB is 47-24 (+12.27 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-181 vs NYM)

(929) MIAMI (70-69) at (930) KANSAS CITY (62-77)
Trend: MIA is 11-27 (-21.12 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-1.5 at KC)

Series #28: Seattle at Boston, Mon 8/31-Wed 9/2
Trend: Over the total is 19-3 (86.4%, +15.80 units) in SEA-BOS games at Fenway Park since 2019
– The ROI on this trend is 71.8%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-BOS (o/u at 8.5)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): ARIZONA (+110 vs PHI), SAN FRANCISCO (+129 at PIT), MIAMI (-107 at KC), ST LOUIS (+203 at LAD)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-164 at COL), TAMPA BAY (-181 vs NYM), MIAMI (-107 at KC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-142 vs CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-KC (o/u at 9)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, September 3)

SPONSORED

TONY GEORGE IS DELIVERING RESULTS WITH PROPS

Tony George, a 34-year veteran Handicapper at Docs Sports, continues to produce winning results. Over the past 19 days, he has generated an impressive +$3545 profit with his Props in MLB and the WNBA, showcasing the consistency and discipline that have made him one of the industry’s most trusted handicappers.

His results speak for themselves:

·  +$3545 over the last 19 days
·  4-0 run on Top Picks (only 4 of them in 30 days by design)

Rather than flooding clients with excessive plays, Tony’s low-volume, methodical approach focuses on quality over quantity—and it’s paying off once again in 2026.

See Tony’s recent results here.

If you’re looking for a proven handicapper with a consistent track record and disciplined strategy, check out Tony George’s daily selections at Docs Sports and see why so many clients continue to trust his picks.

Access his premium picks at Doc’s Sports with a free $60 new member account. Get your free trial here!

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR