UFC Paris Predictions:
The UFC is overseas for this week’s fight card. Paris, France will be the location for UFC FN Paris. This fight card begins at 9 a.m. PT with preliminary action followed by the main card, which starts at noon PT.
There are 13 scheduled bouts on this fight program. Seven of those matchups feature larger men weighing 170 pounds or more, which usually means a greater opportunity for violence and finishes.
Five athletes from France populate the card. There are another handful of fighters featured on this slate from European countries in close proximity to France. Look for those athletes to be the beneficiaries of the local crowd.
Vilified on this fight card will be seven athletes strategically located (on the fight card) who travel in from the US/Brazil to face the local/regional talent. They’ll compete in the large 30-foot octagon with a full house of French fight fanatics looking to fuel hostilities!
Favorites this year in the UFC are running 65.7% which is eye-wateringly high. Underdogs like Charles Johnson +180 on the last fight card are rare, as eight/nine of 12 fights are ending with the chalk getting their hand raised thus far in 2025.
Reversion? I believe so, but we will need to undertake betting underdog fighters with diligence, scrutiny, and selectivity moving forward!
The aforementioned Charles Johnson +180 knocked out English athlete Lon’er Kavanaugh in his flyweight battle two weeks ago in China. Johnson’s win pushes profitability for this column to 17-19 +.33u.
Let’s Fight!
Nassourdine Imavov +105 vs. Caio Borralho -125
Middleweight (185 pounds) main event
Imavov, a Russian athlete training in Paris, is currently ranked second in this ultra-competitive division.
After a one-sided loss to Sean Strickland in January of 2023, Imavov changed camps, which resulted in him rebounding to win his last four fights against respected, ranked opponents. He bested former champion Israel Adesanya in impressive fashion in his latest victory.
Imavov is a solid grappler/wrestler by numbers as well, by attitude. He does his best work pressuring opponents, then initiating grappling forays. His striking effectiveness, though not flashy, is precision-based and accumulative in effect.
While the hulking Imavov is not overly one-punch powerful, he will utilize a combination of all his fight weaponry to overtake opponents in the cage through time and perseverance.
Imavov’s strengths are his well-balanced fight arsenal, his durability/toughness, and in this battle, he’ll have the crowd in his corner jeering at his Brazilian opponent.
The Imavov blueprint in fights is to wrest opponents to the mat for a roll. While his grappling is complete, it can and has been depleting to his cardio, which in this fight is foundational.
Imavov’s high early output has affected his energy late in fights, which is something he will absolutely need to address in this scheduled five-round war against the seventh-ranked athlete in the division.
Brazilian warrior Caio Borralho enters this showdown with confidence surging. His team, the ‘Fighting Nerds,’ have taken the UFC by storm. Borralho, its leader, arrives with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, a black belt in Muay Thai striking and a brown belt in Judo. Together, they help explain his quick ascension into the division’s elite. Borralho’s combination of fight weaponry, mental toughness and forward pressing aggression make him a threat to any athlete in this division despite his relatively short, compact body type.
Once this fight begins, it will be Imavov who will attempt to fend off the pressure of Borralho with his footwork and striking, essentially maintaining distance between the two to try to utilize his height and reach advantages to their full potential.
Imavov, while gifted on the ground, would be foolish in my estimation to try to force the fight there simply because I handicap Borralho to hold a substantial advantage in the clinch, against the fence, and particularly on the floor.
On the feet, Borralho forces this fight and attacks Imavov immediately to test the Russian’s will, his cardio, and most especially, his willingness to eat a ‘Sunday shot,’ for Borralho has accused Imavov of not wanting to get touched on the teeth.
Both men hold similar positive strike differentials. On paper, the grappling is close in ability despite the fact that, in application, Borralho will hold great advantage on the ground.
This fight may well be a showcase for Borralho for his outward aggression, his forceful forward pressure, and the power of his strikes, together with the completeness of his grappling, will make this a truly intriguing matchup, but one where I must lean to Borralho, who opened +135 in this matchup.
UFC Paris Best Bet: Caio Borralho -125
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds Over -195
Mauricio Ruffy -185 vs. Benoit Saint-Denis +160
Lightweight (155 pounds) co-main event
Thirteenth-ranked BSD hit the organization with fury! Prior to fighting, he was a member of the 1st Marine Infantry Paratroopers Regiment, a unit of the French Army Special Forces Command, which means he is a national hero in France.
After a short-notice loss in 2021, Saint-Denis rattled off five straight wins in the organization before biting off a little more than he could chew in fights against Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano.
His last effort showed the BSD resilience as he returned for UFC 315 and finished journeyman fighter Kyle Prepolec in the second round.
Saint-Denis, a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a black belt in Judo, has flash, power, and durability. Quickness, deft footwork, and precision striking are traits he is yet developing. This fight, in France and against a formidable Brazilian opponent who is also on the ascent, may present fight fans with as interesting a matchup as we have seen in the UFC in months!
In Mauricio Ruffy, we get yet another teammate of the ‘Fighting Nerds.’
Ruffy has none of the official BJJ, Muay Thai or Judo decorations of others on this fight card, but what he does have is supreme confidence, deft footwork, acute quickness, speed, precision striking/kicking aptitude, and he is ultra-aggressive.
Ruffy looks to shut opponents down as opposed to earning victory via the attrition of decision fighting.
These two men are quite similar physically, but Ruffy does possess a reach advantage with arms and legs, which will help the Brazilian fight effectively from the distance he works so diligently to establish.
For BSD, he’ll need to navigate himself inside the spatial gap that Ruffy will work to create. BSD will be like a ‘fence ready for painting’ if he is unable to effectively penetrate the distance maintenance that Ruffy will work so hard to establish and control.
From the inside, BSD will be able to work his grappling while simultaneously negating the distance Ruffy needs to unleash those spinning wheel kicks and knees, elbows, and jabs.
Saint-Denis, still developing in his UFC acumen, has shown himself to be a formidable opponent for fighters outside the top ten of this division. However, results inside the top ten display that his skills and experience leave him a bit lacking, as BSD is still a developing mixed martial artist.
Ruffy is an established, ascending fighter who looks well-matched in this battle, while BSD will need to call upon all of his mettle, experience, and former military fortitude to effectively compete against this flamboyant, lightning-fast, destructive monster of a lightweight talent.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Over -165
Mason Jones -135 vs. Bolaji Oki +115
Lightweight (155 pounds)
Oki is a slick, fast striker who has earned a 2-1 tally thus far in the UFC. Though a touch inexperienced, Oki displays the athleticism and striking acumen that can cause less nimble athletes real duress.
In Mason Jones, we get a Welsh fighter who is in his second stint in the UFC after taking a little time away to develop his fight arsenal more completely, and by that I mean he needed to develop a stronger wrestling base.
Mason may not be the athlete his opponent is, but he is more experienced at this level than his opponent. He has been in the throes of competition against more formidable adversaries than Oki has.
This battle is the “styles make fights” matchup of the day. Will Oki be able to maintain distance and avoid the detonation striking of Jones? Or will Jones’ forward pressing aggression and striking bluntness eventually wear Oki down and into unconsciousness?
UFC Paris Best Bet: Mason Jones -135
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -155
Remember, fight fans, this card kicks off at 9 a.m. PT Saturday. My final releases for this card will be posted on GambLou.com on Friday AM. Tap the ‘Bout Business tab to access the information. Enjoy the fights, and thank you for reading!
