UFC Perth Predictions:
After a week off, the UFC travels to Perth, Australia, for this week’s Fight Night event.
The card offers fight enthusiasts 14 bouts, 13 of which feature an athlete from Oceania facing someone from outside that region. There are a few fights featuring wide gaps in age, which by the numbers favor the younger fighter.
Seven of the 14 fights will be held at welterweight (170 pounds) and above. Larger men competing translates to a higher rate of finishing potential, which will thrill the voracious Aussie crowd who will pack the house to back their compatriots, all of whom will compete in the larger 30-foot octagon.
Prelims begin at 4 p.m. PT with the main slate scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. PT.
Two weeks ago, this digital column realized a 2-1, +2.10-unit result, thrusting 2025 profitability to 20-21 +2.13u (+116).
Let’s build upon that momentum.
Carlos Ulberg -260 vs. Dominick Reyes +220
Light Heavyweight (205 pounds) main event
Third-ranked Ulberg arrives to compete in front of his brethren. He arrives with a statuesque physique, sharp, effective kickboxing prowess, and tremendous momentum.
His father, a boxer, raised Ulberg in the sweet science before Ulberg transitioned into kickboxing, where his 6’4” frame, his wild athleticism, and his aggressive nature could thrive and dominate.
Ulberg is undefeated as a professional, save for his UFC debut, where he was finished by Kennedy Nzechukwu, who has now moved up to heavyweight. Since that fight, Ulberg has torn through the division, winning eight straight against legitimate but not world-class competition, save for the two recent victories over Volkan Oezdimer and Jan Blachowicz, both of which were decisions.
Ulberg’s fight plan is simple: maintain a precious distance that allows him to attack opponents with straight fists, ‘teep’ kicks, and any array of knees and elbows. Ulberg is quite agile and quick for his size, which magnifies his natural power.
One comment about Ulberg’s competition that must be mentioned is that the UFC has spoon-fed this striker with like-minded adversaries (fellow strikers), as Ulberg to date has yet to face any athlete who arrives with the ambition of wrestling/grappling Ulberg.
It’s my judgment that the UFC, in its ambition to ‘encourage’ mixed martial arts growth in this geographical area, has manicured Ulberg’s schedule to ‘contribute’ to his ascent in the division, especially since the fall off of previous champions in the region, Israel Adesanya and Alexander Volkanovski.
Californian Dom Reyes is best known for beating Jon Jones but not receiving the actual decision via judges.
A swoon followed that fight as Reyes went to the dark side, losing in violent fashion to competent, ranked adversaries, but he remained focused and confident in his approach and in his ability to compete in this division.
He now finds himself ranked seventh among light heavyweights, and he’ll soon be in the cage with third-ranked Ulberg after having won his last three battles.
Reyes and Ulberg are quite similar in all the physical aspects of fighting that I track. Reyes’ background in wrestling gives him some advantage should this fight hit the mat, but in reality, this will be a stand-up match and one where Reyes’s skills are being discounted and overlooked as I handicap this fight.
Reyes’ level of competition faced, plus the fact that he did not fold up after those colossal losses years ago, tells me the guy wants to be here.
He wants to be champion, and after the display he produced against then-champion Jones years back, his belief now after three wins is strong. The results Reyes has earned in his last three fights allow me to handicap him as being more competitive than current pricing indicates.
This fight reminds me a little of the Johnny Walker fight in China when he was set up to be the patsy for Mingyang Zhang, and he ended up winning via finish.
Reyes has the tools, the experience, the belly, but most importantly, the belief to make this fight so much more of a battle than the marketplace is giving him credit for.
There is value on Dom Reyes at this price.
UFC Perth Best Bet: Dominick Reyes +220 – 1 unit
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Under -145
As mentioned above, this card is basically an Oceania vs. the World setup.
We understand that the goal here is to put the local/regional fighters in favorable positions, but with 14 opportunities, it’s my role to find a ‘ship in’ that will arrive live to their battle and earn victory.
Justin Tafa -125 vs. Louie Sutherland +105
Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Aussie Justin Tafa is a large, powerful heavyweight who is well-equipped to compete in any stand-up battle but struggles to deal with the diverse range of a well-rounded mixed martial artist’s weaponry, especially when it includes wrestling/grappling.
Tafa’s last two fights were losses against nominally talented opponents. In this one, he receives the advantage of taking on a debuting adversary.
In Sutherland, we have an English bloke who can strike, kick and choke. Sutherland will be the taller, longer, larger heavyweight in the cage, and his aggressive nature and ability to grapple will provide the Englishman with tremendous opportunity here.
Yes, Sutherland is being sent into Australia to be the fall guy for the local here, but it is my position that this fight not only exceeds the total but will end with Sutherland getting his hand raised.
UFC Perth Best Bet: Louie Sutherland +105 – 1 unit
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds. Over -150
The ‘Bout Business Podcast is off a 5+ unit profit last card, and like fighters, we too carry great momentum into this fight slate. Catch all my final releases for this fight card on Friday, midday at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights.
