UFC Predictions for Fight Night Abu Dhabi:
This week, the UFC is traveling from Manchester, England, to Abu Dhabi in the Arab Emirates to present UFC FN Abu Dhabi: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov. This card has thirteen fights slated. Preliminary action starts at 9 a.m. PT in the States, and the main card drops at noon PT. Let’s look at our UFC predictions for Fight Night Abu Dhabi.
As with last week, it is foundational to understand which athletes are of Muslim belief and are from that geographical region, and yes, they’ll be using the larger 30-foot octagon this week.
Last week, we split wagers, but the Belal Muhammad +215 wager pushes this year’s profitability to 18-16 +6.72u.
Cory Sandhagen +250 vs. Umar Nurmagomedov -290
Bantamweight (135 pounds) main event
Second-ranked Cory Sandhagen is a world-class mixed martial artist. He’s a fleet-footed, agile-moving striker who uses his physical stature and brilliant angling to tatter opponents with his striking while befuddling them with his evasive strike defense. Sandhagen is an apt wrestler. As a brown belt in BJJ, he can more than hold his own rolling on the rug.
Sandhagen has faced the elite of the division. He’s 32 years old, so he’s just in his prime. He’s also three inches taller than his opponent and holds leg and arm reach advantages.
Sandhagen has a positive significant strike ratio and averages better than 1.3 takedowns per fifteen minutes. He can dominate fights wherever they transition. Sandhagen is a legitimate top three in this division based on everything he has displayed to date.
Nurmagomedov is the tenth-ranked bantamweight, yet he comes into this fight an almost -300 favorite. Despite the experience and physical advantages he is giving away to Sandhagen, Nurmagomedov has an obtuse strike differential on the feet and impressive grappling/takedown acumen working for him coming into this bout. Umar is the marquee man for this production, so understand the crowd is his, and they’ll be pulling for their compatriots all night long.
Sandhagen faced a more pedigreed, complete set of adversaries, so he is surely prepared for this challenge and, in fact, asked for Umar.
For Nurmagomedov, this is a substantial step up in class, but one he has been asking for. Sandhagen just happened to be one of very few ranked bantamweights willing to clash in the cage with Umar.
This will be a tightly contested fight between two skilled professionals fighting in the large cage in Abu Dhabi.
Nurmagomedov’s skills will make this fight appear similar in style, competition and outcome to the interim bantamweight title bout between Sandhagen and Petr Yan in late 2021. In that fight, Yan used his deft boxing and forward pressure to keep the fight standing while pressing Sandhagen backward.
Surely, the Nurmagomedov camp has scrutinized the film of this fight closely to glean any/every advantage to help him overcome the experience, movement, and size advantages that Sandhagen carries to the cage.
I’ll want the remainder of the week to watch this line mature before I make a UFC prediction.
Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds Over -195
Shara Magomedov -250 vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk +210
Middleweight (185 pounds) co-main event
Michal O is a Polish power puncher who is mean, aggressive, and willing to fight anyone, anywhere. It just so happens that Michal O’s striking/boxing is world-class. Those willing to compete on the feet with him give him every opportunity to earn victory, often in impressive fashion. However, he has little wrestling/BJJ aptitude and is often found drowning in fights where he is pitted against highly decorated grapplers or world-class wrestlers.
In Shara Magomedov, we have the epitome of a fighter to fade, as he is deliberate on the feet, slow and telegraphing with his strikes, yet a solid grappler/wrestler. The way to make Shara shine is to feed him a one-dimensional striker from across the world, which is exactly what the UFC has done.
Once this fight starts, Michal O will display a certain willingness to ‘get it on,’ and he’ll light Magomedov up on the feet only so long as it takes the Dagestani grappler to decide to maul Michal O all over the mat.
Michal O knows exactly what’s coming. Should he keep this on the feet, he has every chance to finish Magomedov. but if this fight transitions to the mat, then Michal O will drown.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Over -140
Mackenzie Dern -125 vs. Lupita Godinez +100
Woman’s strawweight (115 pounds)
Godinez is a Mexican striker/wrestler who has deft boxing skills, a granite chin, athletic movement, and great cardio. Currently ranked tenth, Godinez steadily rose up the division until her last bout, a loss to Virna Jandiroba, an elite fighter who is soon to be tussling for a title fight.
Godinez is exceedingly small in stature, but she is immense when it comes to toughness, belief, and durability. She’ll enter this fight looking to get back into the win column by taking her opponent’s seventh-ranked position away from her.
Seventh-ranked MacKenzie Dern enters this fight as a highly disrespected athlete, based on my assessment of this line. At open, she was -175, which seemed an accurate depiction of this fight. Soon after opening, however, Godinez money poured in, taking this line well closer to a pick ’em.
Godinez has the mind, the heart, the durability, and the willingness to continue rising up the ranks, but she showed in her loss to Jandiroba that elite world-class BJJ can cause her issues.
Dern enters this fight having lost three of her last four fights but returns to coach Jason Parillo, under whom her striking has evolved considerably. She is the highest-ranked, most decorated BJJ artist of the division. Her championship pedigree from those BJJ tournaments, the level of UFC competition she has faced, along with her improved striking, force me to regard Dern as the rightful favorite in this fight, a fight where she deserves to be priced more like she was at the opening bell as opposed to where she is priced currently.
UFC Prediction: Dern -125
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -238
Dern via submission is also an avenue I would consider once those prices are available.
The ‘Bout Business podcast drops Friday at GambLou.com. Go there to access all of my final UFC predictions for this UFC FN Abu Dhabi event.
Thank you for reading, and enjoy the hostilities!
