To the Middle East we go for UFC Qatar this weekend for an international event with an early Saturday start time (10AM ET). And while the card doesn’t feature a championship bout, there are several intriguing matchups that could offer betting value.
On this week’s episode of First Strike, Dave Ross and I were joined by Dan Vreeland to break down the best angles on the board, including fighters down the card with more betting value than name value.
The model enters UFC Qatar off a strong 7-4 week and now sits at 166-96-12 (63.4%) for the year. With Thanksgiving week off from UFC action, this is a good time to tighten up, protect the bankroll, and only fire where the edge is clear. We only have 3 events left to bet on, let’s play things smart and stay in the black.
Now let’s get into the numbers.
Jack Hermansson (+215) vs Muktybek Oralbai (-250)
We’re starting things off with a weird one. A middleweight vs lightweight turned welterweight bout. Jack Hermansson has long called 185 home, while Oralbai’s UFC run includes fights at lightweight, welterweight, and 2 catchweights. For now, this is a 170-pound matchup.
- Jack Hermansson is coming off a nasty knockout loss to Gregory Rodrigues. He’s 6-5 in his last 11, alternating wins and losses the whole way.
- Oralbai, meanwhile, is 3-1 in the UFC, most recently grabbing a kimura finish over Tofiq Musayev.
Hermansson has a 3” reach advantage and slightly stronger strength of schedule. He also spends 72% of his fight time at distance, landing 5.13 significant strikes per minute with a solid +1.43 differential.
Oralbai keeps the pace slower on the feet but is relentless on the ground:
- 17 takedowns in 4 UFC fights
- 10.36 attempts per 5 minutes
- 79% control rate of ground/clinch time
Jack’s 81% takedown defense will be put to the test here and if he can keep it standing, this becomes his kind of fight.
The model sides with the underdog, giving Hermansson a 64% win probability; which is great value at his current price of +215. On a tighter card, this could be one of our best spots to attack.
Serghei Spivac (+118) vs Shamil Gaziev (-140)
Serghei Spivac is looking to rebound after two straight losses, most recently dropping a decision to Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Shamil Gaziev comes in on a 2-fight win streak, most recently stopping Thomas Petersen in February.
- Gaziev holds the xR% edge (65% to Spivac’s 53%)
- But Spivac has the clear strength of schedule advantage, having fought the likes of Ciryl Gane, Tom Aspinall, and Jailton Almeida
Statistically, both guys are hittable:
- Spivac absorbs 4.26 per minute
- Gaziev absorbs 4.10 with a -1.47 striking differential
The grappling battle is where it gets interesting:
- Spivac: 31 takedowns at 62% accuracy
- Gaziev: 83% takedown defense, but only tested 6 times so far
- Gaziev: 97% control rate when he gets on top
If Spivac’s wrestling shines, this could tilt his way…and the model thinks it will.
Model gives Spivac a 64% win probability, with current odds around +118. Another underdog, another spot where we don’t need perfection, we just need a few smart hits to cash.
Arman Tsarukyan (-510) vs Dan Hooker (+400)
Arman Tsarukyan was on the verge of a title shot earlier this year before injury struck. And the UFC did not forgive him for it, forcing him to now earn that shot back. He’s on a 4-fight win streak, while Dan Hooker, the battle-tested veteran, enters on a 3-fight win streak of his own.
- xR% edge to Arman: 76% vs 59%
- Arman is 9-2 in the UFC, Dan is 13-9
Striking metrics lean slightly toward Dan in volume:
- Hooker: 5.03 significant strikes per minute, +0.31 differential
- Arman: 3.79 per minute, but with a +1.95 differential and only 48% of time spent striking.
Dan wants a brawl while Arman wants control. On the ground:
- Arman: 78% control rate, 30 takedowns at 37%. Attempting 6.10 takedowns per 5 minutes.
- Hooker: 78% takedown defense. Solid.
The danger? Dan’s style means he’s always willing to take damage and Arman is elite at avoiding it.
The model agrees with the books that Arman should win but not at this steep a price.
- Model: 73% win probability
- Odds: -510 (implied 84%)
We’re staying away for now, but may revisit this one if props shift. At time of writing:
- Arman by KO: +140
- Arman by Decision: +215
That decision line could get interesting if you trust Dan’s durability and Arman’s grappling heavy style.
That wraps it up for UFC Qatar. It’s a tricky slate in spots, but the model has found a couple of potential edges worth watching and betting on.
Make sure to check out VSiN.com/picks on Friday and Saturday for any more bets from us on the card.
Quick programming note: there is no UFC event next week, so First Strike will also be taking the week off. We’ll be back Wednesday, December 3rd for the final pay-per-view card of 2025, UFC 323, headlined by Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan 2.
Until then, enjoy the early start time and best of luck this weekend.
Modelo Predictions & Win Probabilities
- Asu Almabayev | 58.32%
- Serghei Spivac | 64.43%
- Jack Hermansson | 64.36%
- Volkan Oezdemir | 62.09%
- Ian Machado Garry | 53.85%
- Arman Tsarukyan | 73.07%
