UFC Rio de Janeiro Predictions – Gamrot vs. Oliveira:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Rio de Janeiro best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Charles Oliveira (-105) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (-115)
Over 3.5 Rounds (+100) | Under 3.5 Rounds (-130)
Lightweight
When his career is finished, Charles Oliveira deserves a wing in the UFC Hall of Fame. He is the organization’s all-time leader in submissions, finishes, performance bonuses, and he has the third most wins in UFC history. The question is no longer if Charles Oliveira will have his legacy cemented in the UFC Hall of Fame, but when. The former lightweight champion turns 36 next week and has lost three of his last five fights. Despite having one of the best legacies in the sport, he is seemingly far from another bite at the title fight. Three and a half months ago, he was knocked out by Ilia Topuria, who is looking like the next lightweight star (after vacating the featherweight championship). That said, Oliveira’s momentum has stalled because he has been fighting only the best of the best. Besides Topuria, he was defeated by another all-time great in Islam Makhachev, and he lost a split decision to Arman Tsarukyan, who is a win away from fighting for the belt. Oliveira is still one of the most dangerous grapplers the sport has to offer. He also has legitimate knockdown and knockout power, which is best unleashed when opponents are thinking about defending takedowns. Oliveira’s X factor is that he is a threat to find a submission from any position. He can pull guard and end a fight while his opponent is seemingly in a dominant position.
Mateusz Gamrot is one of the most game fighters in the division. The 34-year-old is 25-3 as a professional and has an excellent UFC resume with wins over Arman Tsarukyan, Rafael Fiziev, and former belt holder Rafael dos Anjos. He has never been finished as a professional and has one of the better gas tanks in the division. He is a position over submission wrestler who chain wrestles to wear down his opponents until the final bell. His game does have one crucial hole: a complete lack of power. He has a few ground and pound victories, but he is not a threat in boxing positions. He is a safe fighter, which is why he has amassed so many professional wins. But he has crumpled against powerful strikers. His losses have all come to fighters who were better in pure stand-up exchanges: Dan Hooker, Beniel Dariush, and Guram Kutateladze. Additionally, opponents with good takedown defense can stifle his entire game plan.
Charles Oliveira was eager to accept Gamrot as a replacement fighter after Rafael Fiziev withdrew due to injury because he will have a power advantage. Additionally, Oliveira lost a split decision to Arman Tsarukyan because he ran out of time. This is a five-round main event, and if Gamrot attempts his high-pressure game, he will eventually get caught with something. He has never been finished, but he has also never fought an opponent with as many weapons as Charles Oliveira. The Brazilian crowd will fully be behind their countryman. Oliveira is still fully committed to the sport, recently stating he is not even thinking about retirement yet because he sees the division as in flux and ripe with opportunity.
FIGHT WINNER: Charles Oliveira
UFC RIO DE JANEIRO BEST BET: Charles Oliveira (-105) vs Gamrot, Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1
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Deiveson Figueiredo (+280) vs Montel Jackson (-355)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)
Bantamweight
Deiveson Figueiredo is another fighter who has a shot at UFC immortality in the Hall of Fame. The former flyweight champion has been in at least a half dozen career-making bouts. He is now 37, and coming off a knee injury in May, which caused him to be finished by Cory Sandhagen. The ligament damage did not require surgery and perhaps looked worse than the ultimate diagnosis. He is a tough handicap in the bantamweight division. As a flyweight, he was a finishing threat, but now, facing bigger fighters, he has had a tougher time finding the finish. He is 13-5-1, but his last four losses have come to opponents with a championship pedigree. He is still dangerous, and if his knee is actually fully healed, these odds are head-scratching.
Montel Jackson is very good and on a great run in the UFC. He is 13-2 as a pro and 9-2 in the sport’s top organization. He is on a six-fight win streak with half of those victories coming via knockout. He is tall and long for the division at 5’10” with a 75.5-inch reach. Both of his losses have come via decision in fights where his opponents were able to chain together takedowns and win the control game. His takedown defense has improved as he has matured in the sport, and he has gotten much more comfortable unloading with his hands. But he has not fought anyone who has ever come close to sniffing a UFC belt. This is a major step up in competition. The early money has come in on Jackson, seemingly due to his 7.5-inch reach advantage and major concerns about the health of Figueiredo’s knee. These types of prices on elite fighters facing off against someone who is borderline top 15 in the division don’t come around often. I am backing the strength of schedule and championship pedigree.
FIGHT WINNER: Deiveson Figueiredo
UFC RIO DE JANEIRO BEST BET: Deiveson Figueiredo (+280) vs Jackson, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.8
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Vicente Luque (+400) vs Joel Alvarez (-535)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+120) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-154)
Welterweight
Vicente Luque is a fun fighter because he is a finishing threat from all positions. The 33-year-old Brazilian-American has 16 UFC wins with 14 coming inside the distance. He is a true UFC gatekeeper who has derailed multiple hype trains, but he has also often faltered when he has fought top ten opposition. Additionally, his willingness to pursue finishes leaves him exposed to his opponents. He has often paid the price for being careless defensively. He was initially scheduled to fight 39-year-old Santiago Ponzinibbio on this card, but an injury forced the change. Now he is entering the ring versus a much more dangerous opponent.
Joel Alvarez is a rising star in the lightweight division, but since he took this fight two and a half weeks ago, he is fighting at welterweight for the first time. He is 7-2 in the UFC and has won three consecutive fights via finish. He also has a frame that will not look out of place at 170 pounds as opposed to 155. Standing 6’3” with a 77-inch reach, he will look the part of a welterweight. But big favorites going up a division versus a veteran and dangerous opponent is never a place where I want to risk money. I am bullish on Alvarez long term, but I do not want to lay this type of price with the Spaniard stepping into hostile territory. A finish is favored to happen in this fight, but going up in weight class rarely works as easily as expected. Luque is used to getting hit by bigger opponents, and it is yet to be seen if the grappling strength Alvarez has displayed at welterweight will be the same up at lightweight
FIGHT WINNER: Joel Alvarez
UFC RIO DE JANEIRO BEST BET: Pass
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Jhonata Diniz (-112) vs Mario Pinto (-108)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-230) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+175)
Heavyweight
This is a stylistic, striking clash that should get the fans on their feet. Prior to joining the UFC, Diniz was a high-level kickboxer, and he has already put those skills on display with a knockout victory. He is 3-1 in the organization, and his Achilles heel has been a common one for kickboxers: grappling defense. He has gotten his hand more often than not, but he cannot be trusted to stop the takedown. His speed and power are great, but those attributes are not necessarily in short supply in the heavyweight division. Mario Pinto is still a UFC newbie. He is 10-0 as a pro and 1-0 in the UFC. He won his UFC debut via second-round knockout after a first round in which he failed to leave the starting gate. Yet his power is undeniable. Neither fighter will rush to get this fight to the ground, and I lean toward Diniz to get his hand raised due to more UFC experience. But I would be surprised if we see the third round, and the total in this fight is wrong. The crowd will encourage action, and these two sluggers will give it to them.
FIGHT WINNER: Jhonata Diniz
UFC RIO DE JANEIRO BEST BET: Diniz/Pinto UNDER 1.5 Rounds (+175), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.75
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Ricardo Ramos (-218) vs Kaan Ofli (+180)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-140) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+110)
Featherweight
Ricardo Ramos is not a trustworthy fighter. He is 8-6 in the UFC and has some of the best finishes we have seen in recent years. He has also had some of the worst mental lapses we have seen as well. In 2023 and 2024, he was submitted via first-round guillotine in back-to-back fights despite having legitimate BJJ credentials. While having legit grappling skills, he also unleashes devastating spinning attacks. Despite being a walking highlight, he has lost three of his last four fights and is in desperate need of a win. Kaan Ofli is a technically sound fighter, but I do not believe he has what it takes to last in the organization. Physically, he does not have the attributes to contend with UFC-caliber athletes, which is why he has gone 0-2 in the organization despite doing most things correctly. Ramos can win this fight inside the distance, but I am not willing to go that far. Both fighters are desperate, which could yield interesting results.
FIGHT WINNER: Ricardo Ramos
UFC RIO DE JANEIRO BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below.
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Lucas Almeida (+200) vs Michael Aswell (-245)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+114)
Featherweight
Like Rodney Dangerfield, Lucas Almeida “gets no respect.” He is just 2-3 in the UFC, but he has been an underdog in all five of his fights. He is not a physically gifted specimen and does not have any one skill that jumps off the page, but he is fairly well-rounded, and as evidenced by his ability to win as a dog, he has more paths to victory than oddsmakers want to give him. Michael Aswell is 0-1 in the UFC after showing decently well in a short-notice fight versus Bolaji Oki as a +330 underdog. He landed 118 strikes in that fight but ate 136. I am not sure if that type of high-paced fight makes sense versus Almeida because I believe he has the power advantage. But Almeida’s chin is not as good as Oki’s, so the finish for the hyped up prospect could be there. There are plenty of reasons to doubt Almeida in this spot, but at this price, it would be a sin not to take a shot on the veteran.
FIGHT WINNER: Lucas Almeida
UFC RIO DE JANEIRO BEST BET: Lucas Almeida (+200) vs Aswell, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2
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Jafel Filho (-125) vs Clayton Carpenter (+105)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+135)
Flyweight
Jafel Filho is one of the preeminent grapplers in the division, making this an interesting chess match versus Clayton Carpenter. Carpenter’s ground game is also very good; however, in his last fight, he was outclassed by a veteran, Talir Ulanbekov. Filho is a bit of a known commodity, and in this case, I think that is a disadvantage. Carpenter is still in his 20s and just tasted his first professional defeat. We often see big gains made by fighters in these spots if they are to become a contender. I am not sure of Carpenter’s ceiling, but given he trains at the MMA Lab with some of the best coaches and fighters in the world, I have a feeling we will see the best version of the American yet. In his last fight, he was too eager to try and beat his opponent at their own game, grappling. I think he will learn from that result.
FIGHT WINNER: Clayton Carpenter
UFC RIO DE JANEIRO BEST BET: Pass
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Vitor Petrino (-290) vs Thomas Petersen (+235)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-195) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+150)
Heavyweight
Vitor Petrino’s one-note grappling style was getting stale in the light heavyweight division, so he took his talents to heavyweight. He is now 1-0 in the division with a first-round submission (albeit against 1-4 Austen Lane). That said, he is extremely strong and can land a takedown as good as anyone in the organization. Additionally, he is just 28 years old and has weighed in at about 250 pounds twice in a row while still looking in shape. Thomas Petersen is a physically limited fighter despite having some skills that could present issues. He weighed in at 247 pounds and is actually an inch shorter than Petrino. He is 2-2 in the organization, with wins coming versus the dregs and losses coming versus opponents who are better than the dregs. I think Petrino will be the more physically gifted fighter and will get this to the ground where he can dominate.
FIGHT WINNER: Vitor Petrino
UFC RIO DE JANEIRO BEST BET: Parlay: Ricardo Ramos/Vitor Petrino (+100), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1
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Irina Alekseeva (+440) vs Bia Mesquita (-600)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)
Women’s Bantamweight
If the women’s bantamweight division were deeper, Irina Alekseeva would probably be looking for work. She made her debut with a kneebar win as a +240 underdog, so she is no stranger to being overlooked. However, when she was a -275 favorite in June, she lost a straightforward decision to Klaudia Sygula. Now she sits at 1-2 in the organization and is facing a prospect with a high ceiling. Bia Mesquita is a former BJJ world champion who has made the jump to MMA. She is making her UFC debut and projects to dominate this fight. But I cannot trust newcomers with my money. Alekseeva has been on this stage before. I do not think she is good, but at least she has been here before.
FIGHT WINNER: Bia Mesquita
UFC RIO DE JANEIRO BEST BET: Pass
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Lucas Rocha (-115) vs Stewart Nicoll (-105)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+130) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-166)
Flyweight
Lucas Rocha is 0-1 in the UFC after being submitted a year ago by Clayton Carpenter. Stewart Nicoll is also 0-1 in the UFC after losing his debut 13 months ago via submission against Jesus Aguilar. At the time, Nicoll was undefeated and a -225 favorite. He has seven finishes in eight wins, so it is fair to say the hype was real. Rocha was a +190 underdog to Carpenter despite having an extensive resume in low-level promotions and winning his Contender Series bout via KO. Nicoll is equipped to win this fight, but I am not willing to back him financially. If you are a DFS player, you should have exposure to this fight on both sides.
FIGHT WINNER: Stewart Nicoll
UFC RIO DE JANEIRO BEST BET: Pass
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Julia Polastri (-535) vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+400)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-445) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+310)
Women’s Strawweight
It doesn’t seem real that nine years ago Karolina Kowalkiewicz fought for a UFC title. She lost that fight and is 9-9 in the organization. She weathered a five-fight losing streak from late 2018-2021 and rebounded by winning four fights in a row. She has now lost her last two fights against younger fighters (most are younger; she is now 39 years old). She is not much of a finishing threat with just one submission victory in 18 trips to the octagon. She is likely ot hang up the gloves soon. Julia Polastri is not a special fighter. She is just 1-2 in the organization, with her one win coming as a slight favorite and both losses coming in an underdog role. The win was via split decision. This price is bonkers, but I do not trust Kolalkiewicz at all despite her plethora of experience.
FIGHT WINNER: Julia Polastri
UFC RIO DE JANEIRO BEST BET: Pass
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Saimon Oliveira (+250) vs Luan Lacerda (-310)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+114)
Bantamweight
Saimon Oliveira is 0-3 in the UFC and was on the wrong end of brutal knockouts in his last two fights. This feels like a farewell fight. Or is it? Luan Lacerda is 0-2 in the UFC and was TKO’d by Da’Mon Blackshear when he last fought in June of 2023. He has a strong BJJ game, but Oliveira was brightest on the regional scene as well. I do not expect a high-level fight, but I do expect an exciting one.
FIGHT WINNER: Luan Lacerda
UFC RIO DE JANEIRO BEST BET: Pass
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UFC RIO DE JANEIRO BEST BETS RECAP
Parlay: Ricardo Ramos/Vitor Petrino (+100), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1
Charles Oliveira (-105) vs Gamrot, Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1
Deiveson Figueiredo (+280) vs Jackson, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.8
Diniz/Pinto Under 1.5 Rounds (+175), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.75
Lucas Almeida (+200) vs Aswell, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2
