UFC Rio de Janeiro Predictions:
UFC Fight Night Rio de Janeiro is a fight card stacked with 13 scheduled fights. Most of the fights take on a ‘Brazil vs. the World’ theme as the UFC is always keen on highlighting local/regional athletes when it travels to faraway lands.
The organization often places local fighters in ‘favorable’ positions regarding their matchups, as the foundation of the UFC’s expansion is to electrify the crowds in the cities it visits in order to seed the growth of its brand in that area.
Fighters in Rio will compete in the larger 30-foot octagon and in front of an immensely knowledgeable crowd of hysterical fans..
There are only four fights featuring the larger men at 170 pounds or above. Still, three of those are heavyweight battles that have the potential to electrify the crowd and put them in the proper mentality to support their local/regional athletes.
Lastly, there are five battles where the youth advantage is five years or greater. Fighters who sport a five-year age (youth) advantage over their adversary earn victory above 60% of the time, and that percentage grows as the age disparity increases.
Last week, Dom Reyes performed like Dom DeLuise in the octagon and was iced in the first round of his fight in Perth, moving digital results to 20-23 +.15u
Time to earn!
Charles Oliveira -120 vs. Mateusz Gamrot +100
Lightweight (155 pounds) main event
Eighth-ranked lightweight fighter Mateusz Gamrot arrives in Rio as an overlooked and somewhat disrespected fighter.
After a loss in 2022, Gamrot has rolled through lightweight competition until he lost an ultra-close split decision fight to Dan Hooker in Australia in 2024, a fight that could have gone to either fighter based on my scoring of the fight.
Gamrot is a world-class pressure wrestler who earned numerous decorations in wrestling before transitioning into MMA. He’s credited with a blue belt in BJJ. While his striking is still developing, Gamrot’s able to use his striking to effectively gain wrestling range, which allows him to clasp onto opponents, then maneuver them against the cage and onto the mat for a mauling.
Gamrot’s abilities are so sound that he is sidestepped by opponents because he is so dangerous in the cage. He gets overlooked by the organization because of how effectively he uses his dominant wrestling.
The UFC prefers (and bonuses) striking battles where they may highlight vicious KOs and phenomenal finishes, so Gamrot and his world-class wrestling have tasted some discrimination in gaining top-five battles because of his wrestling prowess.
Brazil’s Charles ‘DoBronx’ Oliveira is a world-class mixed martial artist decorated with a 4th degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a Black prajied in Muay Thai.
Oliveira has competed against the absolute elite between the featherweight and lightweight divisions, and at 35, he remains every bit as dangerous as anyone in the division.
Oliveira’s going to be the longer athlete in the cage, which will complement his striking/kicking. I handicap Oliveira to hold substantial advantage while this fight is being competed on the feet. Oliveira’s striking is more speed-based, diversity-laden, and precision-focused than almost anyone in the division, let alone this vice-grip wrestler from Poland.
The interesting facet of this fight will occur when this fight hits the floor. Oliveira is at the top of the totem pole when it comes to BJJ, while Gamrot’s wrestling is on the same world-class level as Oliveira’s grappling. That said, Gamrot wants this fight on the floor because he, too, believes his wrestling is superior to Charles’ BJJ!
To get the opportunity to watch these two roll on the canvas would be a special treat for all UFC fans, not to mention that it is my judgment Gamrot must drag this battle to the floor to display his dominance because he believes that his pressure wrestling can overcome Oliveira’s world-class BJJ.
One of the first mixed martial arts edicts I was taught by a Gracie fifth-degree BJJ blackbelt head coach was that world-class wrestling is kryptonite to world-class BJJ.
With that in mind, I must trust that Gamrot’s unrelenting forward pressure, his cardio, and his deep belief that, should he lose this fight, he’ll freefall into obscurity within this division will not only allow him to bring the Brazilian to the floor, but once there, he will hold that wrestling advantage and use it to his favor.
UFC Rio de Janeiro Best Bet: Mateusz Gamrot +100 1u
Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds. Under -115
Jafel Filho -110 vs. Clayton Carpenter -110
Flyweight (125 pounds)
This fight is another top-end Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu talent facing a world-class American wrestling savant.
Filho, a Brazilian from Rio, is another world-class BJJ practitioner. A Nove Uniao team member, Filho will have the advantage of being the taller, longer fighter in this matchup.
Filho’s striking is low volume and low power as he utilizes stand up only to position himself to transition any fight onto the floor for a roll.
In Clayton Carpenter, we have a special American wrestling talent who arrives to Rio on the bounce of a loss.
That loss to Tagir Ulanbekov was a terrific experience for Carpenter, for it displayed that he has the ability to be a world-class UFC flyweight, but that he must not overestimate his wrestling, especially if he finds himself in bottom position.
Carpenter’s wrestling, his cardio, and his striking, together with his desire to be ‘the actor’ in this fight, will enable him to dominate in this stern test in Brazil. Again, as I was taught, world-class wrestling is kryptonite for world-class BJJ!
UFC Rio de Janeiro Best Bet: Clayton Carpenter -110 1u
Total in this bout: 2.5 Rds over -170
Friday morning, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops at GambLou.com. Get all my final releases post weigh-ins there. Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!
