Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, August 27, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Under the total is a perfect 10-0 (+10.00 units) with starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the road facing opponents with a >= 0.570 win pct in his career
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-ATL (o/u at 6.5)
Trend: San Francisco is 2-17 in the last 19 starts by Landen Roupp
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-103 vs AZ)
Trend: The YANKEES are on a 15-6 (71.4%, +8.35 units) run versus Houston
– The ROI on this trend is 39.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-154 vs HOU)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 199-151 for +9.83 units and an ROI of +2.8%.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-123 at STL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 132-196 start for -24.62 after losing about 34.5 units over the last ten weeks. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (+114 vs BAL)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 81-45 for -18.77 units, ROI -14.9%!
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-192 at NYM)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 275-326 for -15.00 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 84-79, +19.19 units.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TORONTO (-102 vs KC)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 229-151 for +50.57 units, an ROI of +13.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-119 vs LAD), ARIZONA (-106 at SF), BALTIMORE (-123 at STL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 157-205 start for -41.98 units (ROI -11.6%).
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+131 at WSH)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 139-161 for -0.81 units. However, it has lost -14.11 units over the last month and a half.
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (+114 vs BAL)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 477-501 but for +31.78 units and an ROI of 3.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+114 vs BAL)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 809-1,051 but for +30.62 units and an ROI of 1.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+131 at WSH), HOUSTON (+143 at NYY), LA DODGERS (+111 at ATL)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 159-200 for -39.21 units and an ROI of -10.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-103 vs AZ)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2209-2088 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -271.31 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+131 at WSH), NY YANKEES (-154 vs HOU), SAN FRANCISCO (-103 vs AZ)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,276-2,858 (44.3%) for -264.87 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (-105 at SF), KANSAS CITY (-105 at TOR)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 678-566 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +20.30 units, for an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+178 vs MIL)
Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 70-49-5 (58.8%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 40-22 Over streak in the last 62).
System Match (PLAY OVER): AZ-SF (o/u at 8)
Bats revert to the mean after high-scoring outing
Teams having scored 7+ runs the previous day have slowed down when playing as day game intraleague underdogs/pick ’ems with high totals (>= 9.5), as Under the total is 148-107-17 (58%) since the end of July 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-WSH (o/u at 9.5)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -104 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 202-241 SU record for +38.85 units and an ROI of 8.8% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-103 vs AZ)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #2:
When two teams with >=0.55% win pct meet in a night game to close out a series, Under the total is 72-50-6 (59%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-ATL (o/u at 6.5)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #5:
In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 54-24 SU for +20.96 units (ROI: 26.9%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-119 vs LAD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 565-552 for +23.21 units, good for +2.1% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: TORONTO -102 (+46 diff)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) COLORADO (52-81) at (902) WASHINGTON (62-73)
Trend: Over the total is 38-25-3 (+10.50 units) in WSH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): COL-WSH (o/u at 9.5)
(905) LOS ANGELES-NL (80-53) at (906) ATLANTA (78-55)
Trend: Under the total is a perfect 10-0 (+10.00 units) with starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the road facing opponents with a >= 0.570 win pct in his career
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-ATL (o/u at 6.5)
Trend: Chris Sale’s teams are 28-10 (+10.68 units) in his last 38 home night starts
Trends Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-119 vs LAD)
(907) ARIZONA (71-63) at (908) SAN FRANCISCO (54-79)
Trend: SF is 2-17 in the last 19 starts by Landen Roupp
Trend: SF is 3-12 (-9.44 units) versus divisional opponents with starter Landen Roupp
Trends Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-103 vs AZ)
(909) HOUSTON (66-67) at (910) NEW YORK-AL (75-57)
Trend: Under the total is 62-43-5 (+14.70 units) when NYY is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-NYY (o/u at 8)
Trend: Gerrit Cole’s teams are 29-8 (+6.65 units) when he starts at home vs opponents with a losing record in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-154 vs HOU)
(911) KANSAS CITY (59-75) at (912) TORONTO (65-69)
Trend: Under the total is 11-1-1 (+9.95 units) when KC is on the road and faces opponents with a <= 0.540 win pct with starter Noah Cameron since the start of the 2025 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-TOR (o/u at 8)
(913) BALTIMORE (65-68) at (914) ST LOUIS (66-68)
Trend: Under the total is 25-17 (+6.85 units) with starter Trevor Rogers since the start of the 2025 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-STL (o/u at 8)
Top Head-to-Head Series Trends
Series #28: Houston at NY Yankees, Tue 8/25-Thu 8/27
Trend: The YANKEES are on a 15-6 (71.4%, +8.35 units) run versus Houston
– The ROI on this trend is 39.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-154 vs HOU)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in a MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-154 vs HOU)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-123 at STL)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, August 31)
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