UFC Vegas 101 Predictions – Ribas vs. Dern:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Vegas 101 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
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ALL ODDS VIA DRAFTKINGS UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED
Mackenzie Dern (+160) vs Amanda Ribas (-192)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-220) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+170)
Mackenzie Dern was once a top UFC prospect. She began her UFC career with a 6-1 record that included four victories via submission. However, since the start that got her in the conversation for an eventual title shot, she has struggled with inconsistency. She is 3-4 since October 2021, and hasn’t won consecutive fights since sustaining her second UFC loss.
Dern was the favorite in four of her five UFC losses and the underdog in just one of her wins. Her style is grappling heavy, and she is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu champion. She runs into trouble when she tries to beat strikers at their own game and gives up on her grappling. That is exactly what happened when Ribas defeated Dern in their first fight five years ago. Dern was unsuccessful in her takedowns and was outstruck 74 to 20…
Additionally, she made her career by being a submission specialist, but she has not secured a victory via sub in her last seven octagon appearances. Her takedown accuracy is just 16%, far below average. But if she doesn’t give up and eventually finds top position, the failed attempts are worth the effort. The issue is trying to strike when the takedowns don’t come early and easily.
Amanda Ribas is 7-4 in the UFC. After winning her first two appearances, she has alternated losses with victories. She is coming off of a loss to Rose Namajunas in the flyweight division (this fight is taking place at strawweight). Overall, Ribas is 5-1 as a strawweight, so it is safe today the 115-pound division suits her better than up at 125. She also has Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu bonafides, just not quite to the level of Dern. However, her striking is much sharper. She lands more than one full significant strike per minute more than Dern, and also gets hit significantly less. Additionally, she is a great grappler with an 85% takedown defense rate, while also landing over two takedowns of her own per 15 minutes in the cage.
On paper, this is a tough matchup for Mackenzie Dern. It was tough the first time as well, and she lost that fight as a -185 favorite. I think Ribas is better now than she was in 2019, but I’m not sure Mackenzie Dern has grown as much as a fighter as one would expect. I think Ribas finds her way to victory once again.
FIGHT WINNER: Amanda Ribas
UFC VEGAS 101 BEST BET: Amanda Ribas (-192) vs Mackenzie Dern, Risk 1.92 Units to WIn 1
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Santiago Ponzinibbio (-135) vs Carlston Harris (+114)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+114) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-145)
Santiago Ponzinibbio is a very experienced fighter at age 38. He made his UFC debut in 2013 and has an 11-7 record while fighting prospects and stars in multiple eras of the UFC. His early career was much more successful than his latter years. Since 2021, he is just 2-5 in the UFC, but he has fought multiple ranked opponents, and three of his losses have come via split decision, meaning that he was a few key moments away from victory multiple times. He is a well-rounded fighter, which is what it takes to span multiple decades in the UFC. However, his strength is striking. Six of his UFC victories have come via knockout. He has never won via submission, and he has never been submitted. He is a volume striker who is willing to take some damage on the way to dishing it. He is routinely in fights where both he and his opponent land 40+, 50+, and even 100+ significant strikes. Generally speaking, he does not use takedowns unless he’s in a matchup versus an adept striker.
Carlston Harris came to the organization rather late in life. He is 37 years old but did not get his call to join the UFC roster until May 2021. Since joining the big leagues, he has put together a 4-2 record, although he perhaps hasn’t had the toughest strength of schedule. That said, he has produced a couple of impressive finishes, including an Anaconda Choke victory over Jeremiah Wells as a slight underdog and a KO over Impa Kasanganay with similar odds. Overall, he is 19-6 as a professional fighter and has 11 career wins via finish. In his career, he averages 1.97 takedowns landed with a 29% accuracy rate. He employs volume to find the canvas.
I do not see this as a good matchup for Carlston Harris. Santiago Ponzinibbio has seen it all and is good at avoiding dangerous ground positions. I believe Ponzinibbio has a shot to win via KO, but at these odds, I trust him to win and don’t need to try to sweeten the deal.
FIGHT WINNER: Santiago Ponzinibbio
UFC VEGAS 101 BEST BET: Santiago Ponzinibbio (-135) vs Carlston Harris, Risk 1.35 Units to WIn 1.35 Units
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Cesar Almeida (-258) vs Abdul-Razak Alhassan (+210)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+130)
Cesar Almeida is most famous for defeating Alex Pereira in a kickboxing match many years ago (career record 1-2 in the matchup). He lived up to his reputation in his UFC debut by knocking out Dylan Budka in the second round. However, his second fight was a bit more of a slog as Roman Kopylov was able to cement a split-decision victory through his use of ground control. Fight #3 can be qualified as a bit of a disaster. He went to a decision win versus Ihor Potieria as -500 favorite. The matchup was supposed to be a showcase. Instead it was mostly a snooze fest in which Almeida refused to unleash his most devastating striking techniques. Now he has been training with his old foe, Alex Pereira (and Pereira’s mentor, Glover Teixeira), so it appears he is making a serious effort to enhance his acumen in the “mixed” part of mixed martial arts. That said, he is facing his most dangerous opponent yet.
Abdul-Razak Alhassan is as powerful as anyone in the middleweight division. He doesn’t always put all of his techniques together, but he does have devastating striking power and an elite judo game. He is 39 years old and 12-6 (1 NC) as a pro fighter. All 12 of his victories have come via knockout, most recently against Claudio Ribeiro almost exactly two years ago. Since then he has been submitted by Joe Pyfer and fought to a no contest due to incidental illegal strikes against Cody Brundage. He has much more MMA experience than Almeida and has fought more tough competition.
I understand why Almeida is the favorite in a fight that figures to be striking heavy. However, in his short career, I have not seen him comfortable in the cage. It does not appear that he loves this game; maybe it is growing on him, but I’m not sure. At media events, during his ring walk and post-fight interviews, he still seems a bit timid, and I am not sure I am comfortable putting money next to his name in my betting app.
FIGHT WINNER: Cesar Almeida
UFC VEGAS 101 BEST BET: Pass
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Chris Curtis (+180) vs Roman Kopylov (-218)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-215) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+165)
Chris Curtis is an aging 37-year-old fighter. He got started in the UFC late, but he wasted no time establishing himself in the organization. He started out by defeating three established fighters in a row: Phil Hawes, Brendan Allen, and Rodolfo Vieira. However, since the fast start, he is just 2-3 with 1 NC. He has striking power, good cardio, and excellent takedown defense, But as of late, his health has failed him. Versus Brendan Allen in his last fight, he lost via split decision. Late in round 5 of that main event, he sustained a leg injury and was unable to move properly. Allen was able to land the final blows that got him across the line on two out of three of the judges’ scorecards.
Roman Kopylov is a fun fighter because he is almost always hunting for the knockout. From September 2022 to September 2023, he went 4-0 with four knockout finishes. However, after that streak, he was humbled by Anthony Hernandez, who withstood his flurries and was able to land a rear naked choke in the second round. Kopylov learned from that mistake and was able to activate his grappling for the first time in the UFC, edging out a split decision versus Cesar Almeida. That said, a grappling attack is unlikely to succeed versus Chris Curtis and his career 82% takedown defense rate. Kopylov is statistically the better defensive striker, and also slightly more accurate. His last fight proved he knows how to win smart. This is his chance to show his most recent result wasn’t a fluke.
FIGHT WINNER: Roman Kopylov
UFC VEGAS 101 BEST BET: Pass
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Christian Rodriguez (+215) vs. Austin Bashi (-265)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-250) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+190)
Christian Rodriguez is a hype killer. He is 4-2 in the UFC, but three of his victories have come versus undefeated fighters, and he was a sizable underdog on two of those occasions. He has a strong ground game, particularly in defensive BJJ. He strikes well enough to earn respect, but he is generally not a knockout threat. He also succeeds in weaponizing his cardio versus fighters who may not be used to having to perform for a full 15 minutes.
Austin Bashi is a 13-0, 23-year-old making his UFC debut. He won his Contender Series fight via rear naked choke as a heavy -550 favorite. Despite his young age, he has won and defended bantamweight championships in organizations versus opponents who are not going to be getting a contender series call anytime soon. I think he is going to learn a lot about this level of competition quickly.
Christian Rodriguez has the blueprint to win these types of fights, and I think Bashi’s level of experience is vastly overestimated.
FIGHT WINNER: Christian Rodriguez
UFC VEGAS 101 BEST BET: Christian Rodriguez (+215) vs Bashi, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.15 Units
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Punahele Soriano (+170) vs Uros Medic (-205)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+145)
Punahele Soriano was 3-4 as a UFC middleweight but is now 1-0 after finally making the jump down to welterweight. He was able to engage much more quickly in grappling versus his smaller opponent, Miguel Baeza, and cruised to a decision victory. Uros Medic is an excellent striker with one-punch power; however, he has a decided weakness in his ground game. He is 4-2 in the UFC. Both of his losses have come via submission to fighters with pronounced grappling advantages. On the feet, he will be the more accurate, active, and technical striker, but his subpar takedown defense easily could be his downfall.
Both fighters have legitimate paths to victory inside the distance in this fight. This fight has the potential to be much closer than the current line. Both fighters realize that they have a clear path to victory through a finish
FIGHT WINNER: Punahele Soriano
UFC VEGAS 101 BEST BET: PASS
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Jose Johnson (-162) vs Felipe Bunes (+136)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-140) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+110)
Jose Johnson is 6’0, but he has opted to move down to the 125-pound weight class. He missed weight by 2.5 pounds at weigh-ins on Friday and still looked ridiculously lean. In June 2024, he made 125 in his defeat to Asu Almabayev. Overall, he is 16-9 as a pro and 1-2 in the UFC, with his one win coming up a weight class via rear naked choke. He has found the finish in 11 of his 15 victories, with eight coming due to strikes.
Felipe Bunes is also an MMA journeyman. He is six years Johnson’s elder at 35, and is 13-7 overall. He is 0-1 in the UFC, with the loss coming to Joshua Van via ground and pound. He previously held an LFA title. His favorite path to victory is via submission, as eight of his victories have come with this method.
I think Johnson is an extremely unique opponent for any flyweight. His stature is hard to replicate accurately in training. That said, his fight IQ is not always where it needs to be, and his massive weight miss gives me pause.
FIGHT WINNER: Jose Johnson
UFC VEGAS 101 BEST BET: Pass
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Marco Tulio Silva (-470) vs. Ihor Potieria (+360)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+114)
Marco Silva is another hyped-up prospect who gets to hone their skills versus Ihor Potieria. Silva is 12-1 and on an eight-fight win streak. Eight of his twelve wins have come via knockout, including a spinning back kick and punch combo that cemented his UFC contract on Contender Series. He looks the part of a UFC fighter, but so have many prospects before him…
Ihor Potieria keeps getting called to make the walk to the octagon because he is often in very exciting fights. He is 2-5 in the organization with four of those losses coming via knockout. In his last bout, he managed to go the distance versus Cesar Almeida, but he didn’t exactly light up the cage. This fight feels like it was made with one goal in mind, Tulio to cement himself on the UFC roster with a debut KO.
If Tulio’s cardio and patience are on point, he will find the KO. If he is too green to perform, Potieiria will draw this one out. That said, Potieria’s career negative significant strike differential prevents me from having any faith in him in this matchup.
FIGHT WINNER: Marco Tulio
UFC VEGAS 101 BEST BET: Pass
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Thiago Moises (-166) vs. Trey Ogden (+140)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-298) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+220)
Thiago Moises can be classified as a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist. Three of his seven UFC victories have come through submission, but he is generally outclassed when he is forced to strike. He lands an absurdly low 2.39 significant strikes per minute at just a 40% accuracy rate while getting hit 4.14 times in the same span. His opponent, Trey Ogden, is not necessarily a striking ace, but statistically, he is superior both offensively and defensively. Ogden engages in the clinch and lands multiple takedowns nearly every time he enters the cage, including versus submission fighters. Ogden is extremely tough and weaponizes his gas tank to wear out the opposition. I think he is too big and strong to get caught in one of his opponent’s holds in this matchup.
FIGHT WINNER: Trey Ogden
UFC VEGAS 101 BEST BET: Trey Ogden (+140) vs Moises, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.4 Units
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Preston Parsons (+455) vs. Jacobe Smith (-625)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-215) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+165)
Preston Parsons is 11-3 as a pro but just 2-3 in the UFC. He has not fought the toughest UFC competition, but his decision loss versus Oban Elliott last time out has aged well, considering Elliott’s current form. It is also notable that Parsons was initially scheduled to fight a different opponent who withdrew from this bout, so now he is forced to take on a different prospect who performed well on Contender Series.
Jacobe Smith impressed in Contender Series, landing 76% of his significant strikes and some takedowns on his way to a second-round KO victory. He was an All-American wrestler at Oklahoma State University, so he is a rare breed of grappler. He is also a protege of Daniel Cormier, who successfully transitioned from wrestler to UFC champion.On paper, he fits the bill, but his strength of schedule pre-UFC is not the strongest.
FIGHT WINNER: Jacobe Smith
UFC VEGAS 101 BEST BET: Pass
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Ernesta Kareckaite (-270) vs. Nicolle Caliari (+220)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-260) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+195)
Ernesta Kareckaite is a long and lean flyweight at 6’9” with a 71’ reach. She employs her range well to score. Between her Contender Series split decision victory and UFC debut decision loss, she landed 7.9 significant strikes per minute. However, her defense is a bit worrisome as she only has stopped 43% of the strikes coming back, getting hit 6.9 times per minute. Despite being long and lean, her takedown defense has largely held up in 30 minutes of cage time.
Nicolle Caliari is making her UFC debut after a first-round submission victory in Contender Series. Overall, she is 8-2 as a pro and on a four-fight win streak. Her last loss was to Kay Hansen, who ultimately made it to the UFC before being cut with a 1-3 record. The organizations she fought at immediately before Contender Series are not strong or reputable.
FIGHT WINNER: Ernesta Kareckaite
UFC VEGAS 101 BEST BET: Pass
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Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (-265) vs Bruno Lopes (+215)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+114) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-145)
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov is 9-0 as a pro, 1-0 in Contender Series, and 1-0 in the UFC. Four of his wins have come via KO. His most recent three fights have all come on the judges’ scorecards as the strength of his opponents has increased. He wants to wrestle, and in his two UFC-tracked bouts, he has landed 5.5 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. His striking offense is mediocre, but his defense has been impeccable, only getting hit 1.37 times per minute.
Bruno Lopes is also an impressive prospect with a 13-1 pro record. He went 1-1 in Contender Series, getting knocked out in his first bout and winning via body shots in his second chance. He also is the former LFA light heavyweight champion. He is an exciting fighter, with 11 of his career victories coming inside the distance. Stylistically, this fight has the potential to be tough for both competitors.
FIGHT WINNER: Magomed Gadzhiyasulov
UFC VEGAS 101 BEST BET: PASS
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Fatima Kline (-850) vs. Victoria Dudakova (+575)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-315) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+230)
Fatima Kline lost her UFC debut as a slight underdog to Jasmine Jasudavicious. It was her first career professional loss versus a tough, more experienced, and much larger opponent. She has a strong grappling background, but MMA wrestling is different, and she learned that firsthand. Victoria Dudakova is comparatively much more experienced on this stage. She is 2-1 in the organization and is coming off a split decision loss to Sam Hughes as a -165 favorite. Both women employ grappling in their game, but Dudakova is perhaps more comfortable on her feet. I think this line is far too wide and Dudakova deserves considerably more respect.
FIGHT WINNER: Victoria Dudakova
UFC VEGAS 101 BEST BET: Victoria Dudakova (+575) vs Kline, Risk 1 Unit to Win 5.75
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Nurullo Aliev (-700) vs. Joe Solecki (+500)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-345) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+250)
Nurullo Aliev is 9-0 and 1-0 in the UFC after winning a majority decision vs. Rafael Alves in his debut. He also won via TKO in his Contender Series bout. Joe Salecki is more experienced in the organization with a 5-3 career UFC record. He has lost three of his last five fights as he has faced more experienced opponents. Aliev, on the other hand, has fewer total fights, but he does have a good pedigree and a strong wrestling base. He will avoid the standup as much as possible, and Joe Soleck will welcome it. I think Alieve likely rides this out to a decision.
FIGHT WINNER: Nurullo Aliev
UFC VEGAS 101 BEST BET: PASS
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BEST BETS RECAP:
– Amanda Ribas (-192) vs. Mackenzie Dern, Risk 1.92 Units to WIn 1
– Santiago Ponzinibbio (-135) vs. Carlston Harris, Risk 1.35 Units to WIn 1.35 Units
– Christian Rodriguez (+215) vs. Austin Bashi, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.15 Units
– Trey Ogden (+140) vs. Thiago Moises, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.4 Units
– Victoria Dudakova (+575) vs. Fatima Kline, Risk 1 Unit to Win 5.75
