UFC Vegas 103 Predictions:
The UFC is in the midst of an 11-week run of fight productions. This week, they host UFC Vegas 103 at the APEX in Las Vegas, where fans are few and the 25-foot smaller octagon will be in use.
This card has 12 scheduled fights. There are but three big boy bouts featured in this smaller cage: a welterweight fight, a middleweight co-main event, and a heavyweight tussle, which is on the underbelly of this slate.
Some may choose to criticize obscurely populated fight cards such as this. However, I tip my hat to the UFC for deftly populating each fight card despite the many last-minute changes, cancellations, and injuries. The UFC offers fight fans 10 to 14 bouts per card, 44 to 46 times each year, and never cancels an event.
Last week, the Moldovan Hulk Ion Cutelaba submitted his overmatched Turkish opponent as a +165 underdog. Cutelaba’s quick work allowed us to take a huge bite out of this year’s slow start. Digital results now stand: 3-4 -1.60.
Manel Kape -218 vs. Asu Almabaev +180Â
Flyweight (125 pounds) main event
Eighth-ranked Kazakhstani fighter Almabaev arrives to this five-round main event with short notice. Kape was scheduled to fight top-ranked men’s flyweight Brandon Royval.
Almabaev has a solid wrestling base complimented by the employment of high-volume striking. After entering the UFC from K1 Global and then Brave, he has won all four of his bouts, although he has faced modestly talented UFC competition to date.
Manel Kape is a fighter with immense talent but also an immense ego and an obtuse level of overconfidence.
He’s wildly athletic and strong for the division. When focused, he stands to be regarded as a top three talent. However, he is a bit of a bully, and he’s struggled with weight because he is too big for the division. Couple that with an ego the size of Texas, and we have an athlete that can offer any type of performance, from lethargic and underactive to lightning-quick, employing one-strike fight-ending power.
Kape, an athlete the UFC seems to like, started boxing at 14 and developed a fluidity of movement, a quick striking offense backed with precision kicks, and he levies profuse power from all limbs.
Kape has three losses in his UFC career, two early losses to fighters who were more experienced and able at the time and a loss to a high-level wrestler two fights back, which will be the blueprint for Almabaev in his attack.
A motivated Kape will be difficult for anyone in the division to best, but trying to determine which Kape shows up to this fight is almost folly.
Kape fights a competitor that has the wrestling/grappling tools to execute exactly what those adversaries in Kape’s three losses did. Almabaev could well be a live underdog in this fight.
Kape opened -250 and is currently -235 with the total lined 3.5 Rds Over -200 after opening -150, and it’s rising. We’ll likely see 4.5 as the total by the time mid-week rolls up.
No determination can be made on this fight until weigh-ins, if at all, but I hold interest in Almabaev should Kape come in late and heavy.
Julian Marquez -170 vs. Cody Brundage +140
Middleweight co-main event
Two highly desperate fighters compete in the co-main event on Saturday.
With a win, one athlete has the chance to solidify standing in the UFC middleweight division, but a loss more than likely puts the loser on the cutting board as both of these backed-up battlers enter this brawl with dubious past performances.
In Marquez, we have a power striker who is tough, durable, and willing to engage. Marquez will own height and power advantages over his opponent on Saturday, but the fact that he is now 34 and coming into this fight off of three straight early-round finishes is troubling. He must thwart takedowns, keep his opponent standing, and be able to expend high energy for fifteen minutes, all of which Marquez has struggled to do previously.
His opponent, Cody Brundage, has had his own set of futile early career UFC performances. Yet, it was during a dominant loss to Bo Nickal that we saw unrelenting forward-pressing aggression, wrestling pop, and striking ability from Brundage, let alone determination, which is something he has struggled with in previous fights.
Brundage actually performed his best against a dominant future star in the organization. Since that Nickal fight, Brundage had a semi-competitive bout against a power-striking middleweight in Abdul Rakak Alhassan that was declared a no contest back in July.
So, in this co-main event, we have two desperate fighters: Marquez, a power striker with limited cardio who can wilt under the pressure of any forward-pressing wrestler/grappler, and Brundage, the wrestler who has been finished by strikes twice in his career and can wilt under opposing pressure when a bully opponent flushes him on the face with fists.
This bout comes down to cardio and deep-seated guts/grit/heart. In Brundage I have the younger athlete with cardio I know I can trust. He must ensure that he does not get touched early in this fight because if he can force unrelenting pressure on Marquez, take distance away from him, and not get discouraged in the early stage of this fight, then I feel he can win this battle.
UFC Vegas 103 Best Bet: Cody Brundage +140
I would consider via decision props also
Total in this fight 1.5 Rds. Under -135 and this price is rising.
Jose ‘Chepe’ Mariscal -495 vs. Ricardo Ramos +400
Featherweight (145 pounds.)
Chepe attacks adversaries with aggressive forward-pressing power striking. He backs his striking up with a solid judo base. He is a simple ‘seek and destroy’ fighter. He trains in Colorado at Team Elevation, so we know his cardio is exemplary. He is 4-0 in the UFC and enters this fight with swelling confidence. Chepe opened this fight as a favorite of -180 and has been bet up to -410.
His opponent is Brazil’s submission specialist Ricardo Ramos, who opened a +155 underdog to Mariscal and now finds himself being disregarded as his current price is +350.
Ramos has struggled with fighters that can overpower him, ground him, then bully their way into a submission because he has little to no wrestling to complement his world-class BJJ.
The good news for Ramos and fight fans is that Chepe’s no submission slickster by any means. He is a dedicated knockout artist.
At 8-5 in the UFC, Ramos, a black belt in BJJ, is the taller, younger, longer man in this fight. Those physical assets will work in his favor when this fight is standing. However, it is in Ramos’ best interest to try to eventually receive one of the aggressive, forward rushes that Chepe will unleash toward him, to wrap his neck, grab a single leg or clasp onto an arm. Ramos’ game will be to use the maniacal striker’s aggression against him which happens to be the premise behind BJJ.
Can Chepe implode the younger, taller, more experienced Brazilian with his brazen aggression, or will Ramos be able to lure Chepe into a submission of some form?
That is the intrigue of this bout.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Under -160
UFC Vegas 103 Best Bet: Lean Under
My final UFC Vegas 103 releases can be accessed on the ‘Bout Business Podcast, which is available at GambLou.com on Friday, midday PT. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights.
