UFC Vegas 106 Predictions:
This week, the UFC returns to its APEX for Vegas 106, a fight card that currently features 12 fights. Prelims start at 1 p.m. PT, and the main card begins at 4 p.m. PT.
There are only three fights on the card with athletes weighing 170 pounds or more. While there is little name recognition for many fight fans, we will have athletes competing in this production arriving from Brazil (ten athletes), Ecuador, Scotland, Cuba, Nigeria, and Uzbekistan.
Both the main and co-main events for UFC Vegas 106 are lined prohibitively for the favorite, but other battles on this card offer bettors opportunities.
Last week, I dropped the Muhammad/Fiorot parlay, losing 1 unit. This year’s results stand: 10-13 -3.70u
Michael Morales -750 vs. Gilbert Burns +575Â
Welterweight (170 pounds) main event
Twelfth-ranked welterweight Michael Morales is young, strong, and explosive. He is versed in wrestling and Judo and has fight-ending power in his strikes/kicks.
Morales has soared up the welterweight rankings after decimating all five of his UFC adversaries to date, but this fight represents a certain step up in the class of opponent.
Morales has not faced the level of competition that his opponent Gil Burns has, nor does he possess the depth of championship experience that Burns does, but what Morales lacks in experience and championship savvy, he makes up for with an explosive, violent fighting arsenal.
In Gil Burns, we have a 38-year-old Brazilian warrior decorated handsomely with a third-degree black belt in BJJ and complemented with a depth of experience in catch wrestling and striking, compliments of Henri Hooft.
Burns was a world-class lightweight athlete who struggled mightily with the weight cut to 155 pounds.
Now, in his late thirties, he is forced to compete against men much younger, larger, and more explosive than he, all challenging advantages for a veteran trying desperately to keep his position within the division.
Burns’ mixed martial arts pedigree, his depth of championship experience, and the elite level of foes he has faced in his career make him a reasonable barometer for the less experienced but rapidly ascending talent in Morales.
The current price on Morales is a bit too extreme, yet it must be understood that while the experience and pedigree land with Burns, the UFC has been allowing younger ascending fighters to do their roster cutting for them.
Burns’ approach must be to smother Morales’ striking by rushing into him, grappling/pressing him, and then immediately trying to drag him to the ground, where he is more dangerous.
At 38 and after waging war in the UFC for some 10-plus years against absolute elite fighters across two divisions, it is reasonable to think that Burns will have his hands full with this dangerous Ecuadorian athlete.
For his part, Morales will try to maintain distance, remain measured and with premeditation, try to knock the block off Burns’ shoulders with an array of strikes/elbows/kicks. Morales understands that striking is his advantage, and grappling with Gil could prove extremely dangerous.
Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds under -120.
I will look at the props once released for angles on this most obtusely lined main event.
Rodolfo Bellato -550 vs. Paul Craig +435
Light heavyweight (205 pounds)
Bellato’s 1-0-1 in the UFC and arrives for his third UFC battle.
He is a chiseled and heavily muscled physical specimen who is armed with superior kicking/striking power.
Bellato’s strength and might must be respected early; however, his last fight against Jimmy Crute showed that after a furious first six minutes or so, Bellato’s tank can be depleted quickly.
Bellato’s offensive fury is evidenced in his 6.21 significant strikes landed per minute in UFC bouts. The issue, however, is that Bellato is offensive and has yet to refine a strike defense that allows a whopping 6.3 significant strikes against per minute of UFC competition!
In Paul Craig, we have a world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner from Scotland who has a submission win over the division’s current champion, Magomed Ankalaev.
Craig is also a large man. However, his body type falls more under ‘dad bod’ than sculpted or chiseled. His striking is inept for this level of mixed martial arts. His prowess in grappling and submission has gotten Craig into the organization and onto this fight Saturday.
What is fascinating about this co-main three-round war and the difference in fighter ability is that Bellato will have a tremendous advantage over Craig while these men are standing. For Craig, should he ground the bear-sized Brazilian, he will not only hold the advantage, but he will likely submit the hulking striker, especially if the fight gets past round one.
Which man holds the advantage in this ‘styles make fights’ classic?
I lean to Craig.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Under -135
Mairon Santos -130 vs. Sodiq Yusuff +110
Featherweight (145 pounds)
On March 8th, Santos was awarded a decision in a fight that he absolutely did not earn against Francis Marshall. We had Marshall in the points handicap, thus winning that wager, but the straight bet on Marshall as a decent dog was stolen from investors by the ineptitude of the judging that usually rears its grotesque head sometimes unexpectedly during each fight event.
Now the 24-year-old Santos gets the quick turnaround to compete in the UFC for the third time this weekend.
Fighting out of Las Vegas, Santos, who is undefeated, brings superior footwork, power striking and high volume to his opponents. A +1.81 significant striking advantage has served Santos well to date. However, the forward pressure applied to him in that last fight from Marshall should provide Santos’ opponent with a simple plan for success in this fight. Forward pressure!
Yusuff is a grizzled UFC veteran of nine UFC battles. He has realized a 6-3 tally during that span. Those three losses were against elite, top-ranked fighters in the division in Arnold Allen, Edson Barboza, and most recently, Diego Lopes.
Those losses add a premium to Yusuff’s resume as I handicap it because confrontations with the division’s elite are the foundation for refining one’s overall skills and development as a world-class mixed martial artist.
Yusuff strikes using angles to enhance precision. He holds a positive significant strike differential over previous opponents of 1.25 significant strikes per round, and Yusuff’s strikes are power-based. Yusuff is the busier striker between these two, and he is the more powerful striker as well.
Yusuff, a blue belt in BJJ, arrives off a loss to top-ranked fighter Diego Lopes, to which there is no shame. He returns to the octagon focused and eager to jump into the top 15 of the division with an impressive victory here.
Yusuff is the more complete fighter, even though the 24-year-old Santos will have the advantage of youth and speed/quickness in this fight.
In summary, Yusuff’s experience, his well-rounded fight arsenal, and his competition against the division’s elite force me to dive on Yusuff as an underdog here like a fumble in the Super Bowl!
UFC Vegas 106 Best Bet: Sodiq Yusuff +110
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -250
Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops with all my final releases for this fight card enclosed. Access it at GambLou.com. Enjoy the fighting, and thank you for reading!
