UFC Vegas 107 Predictions:
This week, we cover UFC Vegas 107: Blanchfield vs. Barber, a card featuring 11 scheduled bouts at the UFC APEX center, where a small audience and even smaller 25-foot octagon await the combatants.
There are five fights featuring men weighing 170 pounds and above this Saturday. The UFC’s hope is that despite the lack of marquee, recognizable names, the chemistry between these athletes will produce violent effects, resulting in finishes for the viewing public.
To date, digital results stand 10-14 -4.70u. It’s time to turn that around!
Erin Blanchfield -250 vs. Maycee Barber +215
Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds) main event
Fifth-ranked Barber is a grizzled UFC veteran who is decorated in both Karate and BJJ. She now trains at California’s Team Alpha Male, indicating a focus on improving her wrestling.
Barber’s got fine striking acumen and even possesses power, something that does not come naturally to most female fighters. Barber has accumulated a +1.80 significant strike advantage per five minutes. She’s got a depth of UFC experience, and she’s been pointed to this opportunity for years.
Her takedown defense will surely be tested in this fight. It stands at 53%, a red flag based on the few wrestlers/grapplers Barber has faced in her last several fights.
Barber has struggled with durability issues, and she enters this fight after having been away from the cage for over a year.
In fourth-ranked Erin Blanchfield, we get a fighter who has faced a superior set of adversaries. Blanchfield has been the more active athlete. While her striking is not on Barber’s level, her wrestling and grappling are her base.
Blanchfield’s single point of focus will be to immediately ground Barber, where Blanchfield will own a dynamic advantage. Of course, Barber must not allow that to occur.
Blanchfield opened -200 and is now -250. That price tag seems terribly steep to me, but with that stated, there exists little interest in investing in the more singularly dimensioned Barber.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds Over -230
Mateusz Gamrot -160 vs. Ludovit Klein +135
Lightweight (155 pounds) co-main event
The co-main event is the ‘Styles make Fights’ bout of the card.
From the boxing realm, with BJJ laced into his arsenal, comes Klein from Slovakia. He enters on a four-fight run, defeating adversaries ranked outside the division’s top fifteen.
Klein is an aggressive, forward-pressing striker. He possesses power in the crosses, hooks, and leg kicks he delivers, and he has shown himself to be able to eat a flush fist to the face, so his durability has been established.
Mateusz Gamrot is the more pedigreed fighter. Where Klein has faced athletes outside the top fifteen, Gamrot’s been sharpening his steel on athletes all ranked as top fifteen or better.
Gamrot is an awkward striker and uses that weaponry only as an opportunity to clinch his opponent, press them against the fence, or drop a double leg takedown to transition the fight from his most uncomfortable approach (standing) to his most advantageous (on the mat).
Gamrot’s wrestling is elite and backed up by unrelenting will, unending cardio and deep determination.
Once this fight begins, we will see how advanced the Klein takedown defense is because Gamrot will attempt incessantly to ground Klein in this fight. If he cannot transition this fight into a wrestling/grappling affair, he will stand as a naked king in the presence of his subjects.
Klein must keep this fight going. Can he? Does he have the size, girth, and experience to do so?
Those are the questions that serve as my foundation to this fight, as Gamrot’s wrestling, experience and level of competition faced are enough for me to support him in this co-main event.
UFC Vegas 107 Best Bet: Mateusz Gamrot -160
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -300
Macy Chiasson -115 vs. Ketlen Vieira -105Â
Women’s Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Two physically larger-structured women compete in a bantamweight fight that will set the victor up as a potential suitor to take on the Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison Championship winner.
Vieira is ranked third in the division. She is usually the taller combatant in the cage, but in this one, she will give away four inches to Chiasson. Vieira’s attack is violence-based as she is a decorated black belt in both Judo and BJJ. Vieira is dangerous on the feet, against the fence and/or on the mat. She is mean and willing to make any confrontation a messy brawl on the barroom floor.
In Chiasson, we have a younger, taller brown belt in BJJ supplemented with a brown belt in Krav Maga, a hybrid fighting specialty that incorporates wrestling, boxing, Akito, Karate and Judo!Â
Where Vieira is forward-pressed, aggressive, and encourages confrontation, Chiasson tends to be more evasive and focuses on distance control. Chiasson needs space to unleash optimum striking effectiveness. Vieira enters off a loss to number one-ranked Harrison, which is no shame whatsoever. She looks to solidify herself as one of the top three in the division with a win.
Fifth-ranked Chiasson takes the number three spot should she be able to ensure appropriate striking distance from Vieira, keep her on the outside of her jab, and keep this fight standing. It is in the stand-up where Chiasson will have her most significant advantage, while Vieira’s comfort level will be in close quarters against the fence and rolling on the mat.
In a fight lined 2.5 Rds Over -260, the only question here is which lady earns the decision win?
I lean to Vieira here. She opened -145, and the flow has been coming in on Chiasson in what will be a most competitive fight.
No release at this time as I will choose to scour the props and points for this battle.
Friday midday, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops with my final releases for this week’s fight slate. Catch it at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
