UFC Vegas 108 Predictions – Taira vs. Park:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Vegas 108 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 1-3, -2.82 Units (-55.08% ROI)
Since 2020: 732-706 (+186.06 Units, 10.67% ROI)
PICK’EM HISTORY
Last Week: 4-8 (33.33%)
Article History: 440-285-1 (60.69%)
*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Tatsuro Taira (-360) vs HyunSung Park (+285)
Over 3.5 Rounds (+105) | Under 3.5 Rounds (-135)
Flyweight
Tatsuro Taira is a young and exciting prospect who tasted defeat for the first time in his last bout. The submission specialist was given main event billing in October of last year versus contender Brandon Royval. His limitations in stand-up striking were the story of the day, and Taira lost via split decision. With 10 months since his last fight, Taira has had plenty of time to review the footage and dedicate himself to developing a more well-rounded skillset. He particularly needs improvement when it comes to striking defense, as he allows 54% of his opponent’s blows through, including eating 124 significant strikes versus Brandon Royval. That said, he is an extremely accurate striker due to the fact most of his significant strikes are landed from a control position. His takedown accuracy rate is just 44% but he still manages to land 2.73 per 15 minutes in the cage. At 25 years old, he is the younger fighter in this bout, but he is more experienced, specifically in high-profile spots.
HyunSung Park is 29 years old and 10-0 as a professional mixed martial artist. Nine of his wins have come inside the distance. Before getting promoted to the UFC, he twice won inside the distance on the Road to UFC regional promotion. He has been the favorite in all three of his UFC fights and passed those tests with flying colors. He lands 4.27 significant strikes per minute while avoiding 60% thrown his way. He also has avoided 100% of the takedowns his opponents have attempted while landing one in two of his three UFC fights. Park projects to be the superior striker in this bout, but a four-inch reach disadvantage could be an issue. Additionally, he is not accustomed to fighting a full three rounds, let alone five.
This fight actually could be closer than the odds indicate. Taira has a major advantage in name recognition. He has been a young phenom for a few years and has four finishes in six UFC victories. Park is also taking this fight on short notice after the original co-headliner, Amir Albazi had to withdraw. Taira’s time off, coupled with a full training camp, are a major advantage. Park has not had this much attention in any of his fights, even if this is just at the Apex. I believe we will see a finish, and both fighters have equity.
FIGHT WINNER: Tatsuro Taira
UFC VEGAS 108 BEST BET: Taira/Park Fight Does Not Start Round 4 (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
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Chris Duncan (+185) vs Mateusz Rebecki (-225)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-180) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+140)
Lightweight
Chris Duncan is 4-1 in the UFC with two wins via submission. He was an underdog in his last two fights, but won both fights via guillotine. He is 13-2 as a pro and has very solid mixed martial arts experience. Prior to the UFC, he went 3-0 in Bellator. Additionally, he went 1-1 in Contender Series. He is much more of a grappler than a striker and is a liability defensively. But if this fight takes place on the ground, he has a shot to earn his third upset victory in a row.
Mateusz Rebecki is one of the more exciting fighters in the lightweight division. He is 4-1 in the UFC with a career 80% finish rate. His one UFC fight that went to the scorecards won a fight of the night performance bonus while he and his opponent were seconds away from ending it. His best bet is to keep this fight standing and not entertain grappling exchanges. He is an aggressive grappler, and tries to finish from top position, but he can win with his fists.
FIGHT WINNER: Mateusz Rebecki
UFC VEGAS 108 BEST BET: Mateusz Rebecki To Win Inside The Distance (+120), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.2
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Esteban Ribovics (-278) vs Elves Brenner (+225)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-280) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+210)
Lightweight
Esteban Ribovics is another exciting fighter on a card filled with aggressive combatants. He has been honored with a fight of the night bonus in each of his last two fights. He has landed 115+ significant strikes in three of his last four bouts. He also beat Terrance McKinney in just 37 seconds. Over the course of his UFC career, he has landed 8.08 significant strikes per minute while avoiding 55% of his opponent’s strikes. He also has a 63% takedown defense rate, which is impressive considering in his UFC debut, Loik Radzhabov landed 11.
Elves Brenner is another all-action fighter who is 3-2 in the UFC. He started his career by going 2-0 as an underdog of +450 or more, but has lost his last two fights, albeit against very tough competition in Myktybek Orolbai and Joel Alvarez. He has a jiu-jitsu background and trains with the famed Chute Boxe team. He is 16-5 overall as a pro, and 11 of his wins have come via submission. He also has two knockouts in the UFC. Ribovics will win this fight if it stays standing, and his takedown defense remains resolute. It is tempting to take this fight to not go the distance, but both of these men are extremely tough, and a bloody decision is well within the range of outcomes.
FIGHT WINNER: Esteban Ribovis
UFC VEGAS 108 BEST BET: Pass
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Karol Rosa (-192) vs Nora Cornolle (+160)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-560) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+370)
Women’s Bantamweight
Karol Rosa will be walking into the UFC octagon for the 12th time. She is 7-4 in the organization but has traded wins and losses in her last seven fights. She is coming off a loss to Allin Perez as a -250 favorite. Each of her UFC fights has gone to the judges’ scorecards. She is often in wild striking exchanges and lands 6.22 significant strikes per minute in the cage. That being said, she eats nearly five significant strikes per minute and has a sub 50% defense rate. She can grapple a little, but it is not necessarily a strength.
Nora Cornolle is 3-1 in the UFC, but her loss was as an underdog. She has upset victories over Melissa Mullins and Joselyne Edwards. She has nowhere near the experience of Rosa and has also had weight issues in the past. She made the scale cleanly here, but her maturity is still a question, despite the fact she is five years older.
FIGHT WINNER: Karol Rosa
UFC VEGAS 108 BEST BET: Pass
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Neil Magny (+154) vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (-185)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)
Welterweight
Neil Magny is a UFC veteran who has fought a who’s who of UFC names over the past 12 years. He is 22-12 in his UFC career. But the 37-year-old has his back against the wall. He has lost his last two fights and three of his last four. He is a tough matchup for anyone because he uses the clinch to control pace and distance. He is also long-limbed and capable of engaging in the fight standing or on the ground. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos is also an aging UFC veteran. He is 38 years old and has been in the UFC for a decade. He is a little bit more of a finisher than Magny, but has only one win via finish in the last six years. I expect this to be a decision fight, and I do not want to leave a bet in the hands of the judges.
FIGHT WINNER: Neil Magny
UFC VEGAS 108 BEST BET: Pass
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Danny Silva (+330) vs Kevin Vallejos (-425)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-125) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-105)
Featherweight
Danny Silva is 2-0 in the UFC with both victories coming via split decision. He is well-rounded, but excels primarily as a wrestler. He has landed at least one takedown in each of his UFC fights and also in Contender Series. He also has landed 7.36 significant strikes per minute, but has absorbed 7.96. If he wants to keep building on his momentum, the striking defense needs to improve because he will not win against the upper echelon of the division if he can’t avoid a punch. Kevin Vallejos is 1-0 in the UFC after going 1-1 in Contender Series. His loss in Contender Series was a decision versus Jean Silva (who is now 5-0 in the UFC with five finishes). In his debut, Vallejos knocked out Seung Woo Choi in the first round. He also won in Contender Series via first-round knockout. Can he grapple, and can he get up if he gets taken down? The odds indicate that we probably won’t even get there, and I tend to agree. Silva’s striking defense rate is a major red flag.
FIGHT WINNER: Kevin Vallejos
UFC VEGAS 108 BEST BET: Pass
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Rinya Nakamura (-425) vs Nathan Fletcher (+330)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-215) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+165)
Bantamweight
Rinya Nakamura was undefeated until he faced Muin Gafurov in January. The wrestling ace was outclassed in mixed martial arts vs Gafurov because his striking game was nonexistent. His defensive numbers remain elite, with only 1.7 significant strikes absorbed per minute, and he has never been taken down. Nathan Fletcher is 1-1 in the UFC. He had a decorated career in the UK’s Cage Warriors promotion before joining the UFC. He lost his last bout largely because he was taken down six times. I think this price is too wide, because Nakamura’s one-note style was exposed in his last fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Rinya Nakamura
UFC VEGAS 108 BEST BET: Pass
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Rodolfo Vieira (-198) vs Tresean Gore (+164)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+114)
Middleweight
Rodolfo Vieira had the potential to take the organization by storm. He is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world champion who looks like he was cut from marble. He is not a well-rounded mixed martial artist and is still inexperienced as a striker. His muscle-bound body has also led to cardio issues as fights advance past the first round. He has still gone 5-3 in the UFC and has fought very tough competition. Tresean Gore was at one time considered a high-level prospect, but he has been unable to connect the dots under the bright lights. He is 2-3 in the organization and was knocked out in April versus Marco Tulio. Both of his UFC wins have come via guillotine, which is not a likely path to victory against Vieira. I think Vieira will get this fight to the ground and find the submission.
FIGHT WINNER: Rodolfo Vieira
UFC VEGAS 108 BEST BET: Rodolfo Vieira to win via Submission (+130) vs Gore, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.3
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Nick Klein (+130) vs Andrey Pulyaev (-155)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-200) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+154)
Middleweight
Nick Klein got the call to the UFC on short notice. He had to face Mansur Abdul-Malik and was knocked out in the second round. His pre-UFC schedule is suspect at best, but he has a career 83% finish rate. Both of his career losses have come via knockout, meaning he has a penchant for entertaining bouts. Andrey Pulyaev is also 0-1 in the UFC. He lost a decision to Christian Leroy Duncan and struggled to get going with any sort of significant offense. He, too, lacks high-level mixed martial arts experience, and I expect this to be one of the sloppier bouts on this fight card. I expect this to be close, and I think the underdog could turn some heads here.
FIGHT WINNER: Nick Klein
UFC VEGAS 108 BEST BET: Pass
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Austin Bashi (-750) vs John Yannis (+525)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+145)
Featherweight
Austin Bashi is just 23 years old and was a -270 favorite in his UFC debut, a decision loss to hype killer Christian Rodriguez. He is 13-1 as a pro, with eight wins inside the distance. Grappling is his strength, and he will try to get this fight to the ground. John Yannis was given this opportunity as a replacement for Francis Marshall. Yannis defeated UFC washout Nick Aguirre in Fury FC in May, but prior to that, his strength of schedule is wanting. There are too many questions about both fighters to bet anything with such long odds.
FIGHT WINNER: Austin Bashi
UFC VEGAS 108 BEST BET: Pass
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Felipe Bunes (+455) vs Rafael Estevam (-625)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-135) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+105)
Flyweight
Felipe Bunes is 1-1 in the UFC and coming off a first-round submission victory versus Jose Johnson in January. He has fought around the world and has racked up valuable experience. He is 35 years old and has nine submission victories and a 14-7 record. Rafael Estevam is an undefeated pro who is 2-0 in the UFC. Both of his wins have come on the judges’ scorecards. He is an extremely active grappler, which has helped his striking defense. He landed 11 takedowns in his last bout and is likely to employ a similar strategy here.
FIGHT WINNER: Rafael Estevam
UFC VEGAS 108 BEST BET: Pass
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Piera Rodriguez (-245) vs Ketlen Souza (+200)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-375) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+270)
Women’s Strawweight
Piera Rodriguez is 3-2 in the UFC but won her last fight as a +210 underdog. Statistically, she profiles as a contender in this division. She has good striking metrics, better striking defense numbers, and adept grappling. One of her losses was via DQ, despite the fact she was winning the fight by the numbers. Ketlen Souza is 2-2 in the UFC and coming off a split decision loss to Angela Hill as a very slight favorite. Souza is actually statistically a better offensive striker than Rodriguez, but her inability to stop takedowns at the wrong times has cost her wins in the past.
FIGHT WINNER: Ketlen Souza
UFC VEGAS 108 BEST BET: Pass
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UFC VEGAS 108 BEST BETS RECAP:
Rodolfo Vieira to win via Submission (+130) vs Gore, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.3
Taira/Park Fight Does Not Start Round 4 (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
Mateusz Rebecki To Win Inside The Distance (+120) vs Duncan, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.2
