UFC Vegas 111 Predictions:
UFC Fight Night Bonfim vs. Brown drops this Saturday at the APEX facility in Las Vegas. Thirteen scheduled bouts will be presented with fighters arriving from across the globe to compete in battles being waged from 115-pound flyweight ladies to 265-pound heavyweight men!
Again this week, the combatants populating this fight card are as relatively obscure and unrecognized at this stage of their careers as the UFC strives this time of year to get fighters scheduled to help fulfill contractual obligations, as well as put losing fighters on notice.
There are but a handful of fights with aggressive age differences on this card, and these statistically favor the younger athlete. Save for one battle on this slate being lined -270 to the favorite, all the other fights on the card are lined competitively, for these bouts are well-matched.
Last week’s UFC card was/is engrossed in yet another betting scandal. However, this one is more serious than the last occurrence. I hesitate to report more than this because details are scant and it is responsible to wait for the hard facts before jumping on unreported fact.
Suffice it to say, the feds may now be involved. The UFC could now be in a situation of explaining to authorities why they allowed the fight to move forward AFTER they had been warned about the inequities discovered in the betting markets by their watchdog entity Integrity Compliance 360 (IC360), “a global compliance technology and advisory platform specializing in comprehensive integrity and regulatory technology.”*
More news is coming for certain, and I’ll have strong opinions, but only once the hard facts are brought to light!
Last week, I split my positions as we earned victory and profit from the Stevie Garcia domination, yet we were robbed of a victory because of ultra-dubious refereeing in the Delija vs. Cortez-Acosta fight, where Delija was awarded the win, then after video replay and a ten-minute delay, the fight was resumed. Seems the UFC is forceful enough to forge their own rules on the fly in these events?!
My fear is that the UFC is transitioning from a legitimate sport with wagering integrity (ala Boxing in the eighties) to scripted outcomes like the WWE. Let’s hope I am incorrect.
Let’s break down a couple of scheduled bouts!
Gabriel Bonfim -185 vs. Randy Brown +160
Welterweight (170 pounds) main event
Brazilian grappling talent Bonfim is a mixed martial artist who has realized a 5-1 result since his entry into the organization in 2023.
The 28-year-old Bonfim is an accomplished grappler who realizes an average of four plus take downs per fifteen minutes of fighting. His takedown defense is solid, yet his striking, pedestrian as it is, is still very much in development, while his strike defense borders on inadequate.
Bonfim employs forward force to immediately engage opponents. His will to employ his grappling acumen helps him cloak the fact that on the feet, he is not to the level of top-ranked talent in the UFC’s welterweight division.
I say this on the heels of a very controversial (yet another one) decision earned in his most recent fight against Steven ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson. In that fight, 12 of 14 press credentialed professionals in attendance scored the fight for Thomson, yet Bonfim was ‘awarded’ a split decision?!
Thompson, a 41-year-old with dynamic kickboxing and stand-up skills, schooled the Brazilian and avoided being grounded, yet despite the fact that he did everything he could to ethically earn victory, the decision went to the fighter who has more future merit for the organization as opposed to the fighter who actually won the fight.
Get used to this, fight fans, because it’s not going away.
In any case, the singularly dimensioned grappler Bonfim takes this fight against another tall, long, well-rounded opponent in Randy Brown.
Brown, a Jamaican with a black belt in BJJ and a wealth of experience, fights out of Queens, NY.
Brown’s been in with a more competent set of UFC foe. He’s faced fighters of every shape and skillset, and provided he can depend on his stout 79% takedown defense in this encounter, he should be in position to wage this war with Bonfim from the stand-up position, which greatly favors him in this fight.
Brown, despite being seven years the more mature fighter at 35, is two inches taller than his Brazilian foe. He also sports a six-inch reach advantage over Bonfim, who may find it arduous to gain inside position on the athletic jawbreaker from Jamaica.
The telling factor in this fight is where it takes place, because if Bonfim is able to bring Brown to the basement floor, he’ll hold advantage, but not a dominant advantage.
Should Brown be able to keep the Brazilian grappler at distance in a standing battle and force Bonfim into the second round and beyond, he’ll be in a terrific position to utilize his well-rounded fight weaponry and beat the Brazilian in a standing battle.
UFC Vegas 111 Best Bet: Randy Brown +160: 2u
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -120
Joseph Morales -270 vs. Matt Schnell +230
Flyweight (125 pounds) co-main event
Morales, 2-2 in the UFC, received this opportunity because of the dominant upset win he earned earlier in the year against a heavily favored Alibi Idiris. This was Morales’ return fight to the UFC after realizing a 1-2 tally before being cut.
The win against Idiris demonstrated that Morales had improved significantly in his all-around mixed martial arts arsenal, particularly in wrestling/grappling, which will likely be needed against this specific opponent.
That opponent, Matt Schnell, is an athlete who is one victory into the UFC after his retirement from the organization. In almost every case of returning athletes post-retirement, the fighter returning from retirement learns that there was a legitimate reason that they had retired in the first place.
For Schnell, we see that despite his world-class grappling, the rest of his fight weaponry, namely striking and strike defense, is lacking, to say the least.
Schnell stood 6-7-1 in the UFC when he retired. Then this past April, he returned to face an athlete more fragile and unable to take a straight flush to the face than he was in fellow flyweight Jimmy Flick.
Schnell won that fight via decision. Now, after about a decade in the UFC, he makes a co-main event appearance against a pugilist who is forceful with his fists and complemented by a complete grappling game.
This is a ‘changing of the guard’ fight as Schnell, who has been finished in all seven of his UFC bouts, enters this fight as the loser of three of his last four.
Despite the fact that Schnell enters off a win, I must handicap the opponent he fought (Flick) as being journeyman material at best and, realistically, a talent that unfortunately does not belong in the UFC.
Once this fight begins, it will be Schell who will look to lock up and negate distance from the heavy-handed mauler Morales.
Schnell will find that the Morales grappling is not only much improved over his first UFC run, but that his striking, kicking, and boxing are a level beyond what Schnell will be able to defend or evade.
I handicap this fight to be relatively one-sided and one in which I believe Morales shines.
Joe Morales opened -250 in this fight, and his price now stands -270, which I believe is a fair representation of each man’s current skill level.
I handicap Morales to execute what the other seven victors have executed against Schnell, which is to finish him, most likely via KO. That said, my approach will be a simple ‘inside the distance’ tactic.
UFC Vegas 111 Best Bet: Morales to win via KO/Sub or DQ -105: 105u
These are the odds for DraftKings. That will be our position to earn one unit in this week’s co-main event.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Over -170
Strong lean to Under
Friday morning, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops at GambLou.com with all my final releases. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
*Integrity Compliance 360 description came from their webpage.
