The UFC is back at the Apex for UFC Vegas 111, and while the card is light on star power, there are still some sharp betting angles worth highlighting. Our predictive model, El Modelo, went 4-2 last week and now sits at 154-88-12 (63.64%) on the year, but with only a few wide edges showing this week, bankroll protection remains key as we head into the final stretch of 2025. Only 5 events left to go.
A little lighter volume in preparation for next weeks UFC 322.
Also don’t forget to catch the latest episode of First Strike, where I joined host Dave Ross and special guest Doug Vazquez from Sports Illustrated to break down this week’s fights and discuss the developing UFC betting scandal. You can find the full episode embedded below or wherever you get your podcasts.
Now let’s get into the card.
Tecia Pennington (+160) vs Denise Gomes (-190)
We start with a classic clash of veteran toughness vs youthful momentum.
Denise Gomes enters on a 3-fight win streak, most recently stopping Elise Reed via TKO in May. She’s now 5-2 in the UFC and just 25 years old.
On the other side, we have Tecia Pennington, a veteran of the division since 2014. She’s 36 now and holds an 11-7 UFC record, currently on her own 2-fight win streak.
- Both women carry nearly identical xR% scores. 62% for Gomes, 61% for Pennington. That’s tighter than expected.
- Denise brings more finishing ability: 7 career knockouts, 3 inside the UFC.
- Tecia, meanwhile, is a decision machine. She’s never been stopped in her entire MMA career.
Let’s go to the stat sheet:
- Pennington lands 4.78 sig. strikes per minute with a +1.30 differential.
- Gomes lands 4.12 per minute with a +1.21 differential, but absorbs less overall (2.91 absorbed per minute).
Power? Denise has 3 knockdowns in her UFC career. Yet Tecia has never been knocked down. Is one going to give?
Neither woman dominates on the ground:
- 9 takedowns for Tecia at 14% accuracy
- 7 takedowns for Gomes at 37% accuracy
- Both defend at a solid clip: 62% for Tecia, 67% for Gomes
Model Prediction: Denise Gomes
- Model: 73.02% win probability
- Market: ~65.5% (-185/-190 odds)
There’s a little bit of value here for Denise. Not a massive edge, but on a low-volume card, the model sees it as playable. If the odds climb over -200, it’s time to pivot to props or use her in parlays.
Mayra Bueno Silva (+205) vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti (-250)
Another veteran vs newcomer dynamic, and this one leans even more sharply in the direction of the new blood.
Jacqueline Cavalcanti enters on a 7-fight win streak, with a perfect 4-0 UFC record.
Mayra Bueno Silva is on the opposite path, 1-3-1 since 2023, currently riding a 3-fight losing streak. She has a NC back in 2023 vs Holly Holm due to her testing positive for PED after the fight. On a cold run since the suspension raises concerns on what she’s got left in the cage.
- Cavalcanti holds a 4-inch reach advantage
- And more importantly, her xR% is a standout 73% compared to Mayra’s concerning 41%
Mayra’s got the finishing experience with 4 UFC submission wins, but Cavalcanti’s pace and output are her real weapons:
- Jacqueline lands 5.73 sig. strikes per minute with a +2.42 differential
- Mayra lands 3.84 with a -1.04 differential, absorbing nearly 5 per minute (No Bueno Silva)
Neither fighter has a knockdown in the UFC, and Mayra’s wrestling hasn’t been much of a factor:
- Just 5 takedowns in 12 UFC fights
- Cavalcanti defends at 85%, and has yet to be taken down
Model Prediction: Jacqueline Cavalcanti
- Model: 78.52% win probability
- Market: -250 (71.43%)
No surprise here. Cavalcanti checks all the boxes. While she’s too steep for a straight bet, she’s an ideal parlay anchor. Even her decision line sits high at -200, so the play is finding a safe pairing here. The model aims at Jacqueline’s tools being too sharp for the struggling Mayra Bueno Silva.
Gabriel Bonfim (-190) vs Randy Brown (+160)
In our Apex main event, we’ve got two welterweights looking to climb the ranks in the division.
Gabriel Bonfim is 5-1 in the UFC and coming off a close split decision win over Stephen Thompson in July. At just 28 years old, he’s 18-1 overall.
Randy Brown is a vet at 14-6 in the UFC and also coming off a TKO win over Nicolas Dalby in April. He’ll have a 6-inch reach advantage in this fight. That could play a major part in this story.
The numbers are tighter than expected:
- xR%: Bonfim 71%, Brown 57%
- Striking differential: Bonfim +0.97, Brown +1.21
- Knockdowns: Brown has 6 (but also been knocked down 5 times) Yet, Bonfim lacks the power to capitalize here.
Bonfim’s wrestling gives him a different angle:
- 3.79 takedown attempts per 5 minutes, at 54% accuracy
- 14 takedowns total, and a 70% ground control time
- But only 24% of that is a controlling position, and Brown defends at 73%
Model Prediction: Randy Brown (but it’s close)
- Model: 56.46% win probability
- Market: +160 underdog (38.46%)
It’s a close one. The model leans Brown, and at plus money, it’s enough to warrant a small play. The model is telling us this could be a coin-flip fight, and with the odds at +160, it could be worth a bite in the main event. Randy might be able to edge it out with output and size. If Stephen Thompson kept Gabriel at bay, maybe Randy can get the win we deserved. Keep the bet small and expect a sweaty Saturday.
That wraps up our breakdown for UFC Vegas 111. We’ll be selective with plays this week, but as always, keep an eye on line movement and late value spots. You can follow me on X @TheRobbeo along with Dave Ross @drosssports and catch every new episode of First Strike on YouTube or your favorite podcast platform.
El Modelo Predictions | Win Probability Percentages
- Randy Brown | 56.46%
- Joseph Morales | 53.95%
- Uros Medic | 59.74%
- Ismael Bonfim | 64.38%
- Ricky Simon | 53.93%
- Hyder Amil | 60.84%
- Jacqueline Cavalcanti | 78.52%
- Denise Gomes | 73.02%
- Daniel Marcos | 58.10%
