The UFC closes out its 2025 calendar with UFC Vegas 112 from the Apex. Headlined by a flyweight banger between Brandon Royval and Manel Kape.
While it may not have the buzz of a pay-per-view, this week’s card still offers plenty of opportunities from a betting perspective and the model is coming in with a 6-4 showing last week. That brings the 2025 record to 176-101-15, good for 63.54% overall.
Let’s dive into the matchups, starting with Amanda Lemos vs Gillian Robertson.
But first, a friendly reminder to check out this weeks First Strike with special guest, Kyle Anthony. You can find the episode everywhere you get your podcasts and on YouTube now.
Amanda Lemos (+160) vs Gillian Robertson (-192)
Amanda Lemos is always dangerous, but she’s had an up-and-down run lately. Now 38 years old, she’s 2-3 in her last five, most recently dropping a decision to Tatiana Suarez. Gillian Robertson, on the other hand, is 30 years old and riding a 4-fight win streak, including a TKO win over Marina Rodriguez in May.
There’s a notable gap in xR%: Lemos has dropped below the 50% mark at 48%, while Robertson is trending well at 62%. Both women are capable finishers. Robertson owns 3 UFC TKOs and 7 submissions, while Lemos has 3 knockouts and 2 subs.
Lemos has fought the tougher schedule overall. She’s a former title challenger and even holds a win over current champ Mackenzie Dern. But this is a big step up for Gillian, and one that could shape her future title trajectory.
Just don’t expect a firefight. This is one of the lowest-volume striking matchups on this year:
- Lemos: 2.75 sig. strikes landed/min, -0.49 differential
- Robertson: 2.86 sig. strikes landed/min, 0.00 differential
Even defensively, it’s not a high-output affair. Amanda does have some pop though, scoring 6 knockdowns in the UFC. Gillian? Zero knockdowns absorbed to date.
The grappling is where things could get interesting:
- Robertson: 77% control rate in clinch/ground time, 6.13 takedown attempts per 5 min
- Lemos: 31% control, only 1.26 attempts per 5 min
And yet, Lemos is tough to get down. Suarez went just 3-for-12 on takedowns but still racked up 9 minutes of control. Could Gillian find similar success?
The model predicts in favor of a Gillian Robertson win with a 70% win probability (vs implied 64% at -185 odds). Played her earlier at -170. I’ve seen her odds continue to grow up to -192 and don’t suggest jumping on the number if it stays above that -180 zone.
For fun, I’ve been working a bit on projected significant strikes in a match model. Those markets unfortunately don’t hit until Friday or even fight day. We’ve hit a few since monitoring it. We try to focus on matches that have the potential of a judges decision. This one may not be the play, with both women holding strong finish potential, but here’s a glimpse of the numbers anyways.
- Amanda Lemos: 45.3
- Gillian Robertson: 47.2
Melquizael Costa (-110) vs Morgan Charriere (-110)
This one can sneakily be a fight of the night contender.
Morgan Charriere brings a 2-2 UFC record, with both wins by TKO — including his July finish of Nate Landwehr. Melquizael Costa rides a 4-fight win streak, last defeating Julian Erosa in May.
Costa’s got the edge in both xR% (64% vs 54%) and strength of schedule. He’s also more defensively sound:
- Costa: 4.44 sig. strikes/min, +1.35 differential
- Charriere: 4.08 sig. strikes/min, -0.46 differential
Charriere prefers to stand and bang (67% distance striking time) and carries more knockout power — 3 knockdowns in 5 UFC fights. But Costa is the cleaner striker.
If it hits the ground:
- Charriere: 63% control rate in clinch/ground
- Costa: only 40%, but 6 sub attempts (2 sub wins)
Charriere has decent takedown defense (83%), so we may not see much grappling here.
Official prediction goes to Costa from the model at 59% win probability. Current odds are -110 both ways, so not much value to chase on this one unfortunately and seems like one we’ll stay away from this weekend. No need to chase on the final card of the year.
Brandon Royval (+245) vs Manel Kape (-305)
The main event might be flying under the radar, but it’s a fun one.
Royval is coming off a decision loss to Joshua Van and is 2-1 in his last three, including wins over Brandon Moreno and Tatsuro Taira. Kape has back-to-back KOs over Bruno Silva and Asu Almabayev, and hasn’t been finished in the UFC.
In terms of xR%, it’s Kape with the edge: 67% vs Royval’s 55%. Royval gets a slight bump in strength of schedule but Kape is arguably hitting his peak.
Striking comparison:
- Royval: 5.55 sig. strikes/min, +1.32 differential, 3 knockdowns scored
- Kape: 5.04 sig. strikes/min, +0.99 differential, 6 knockdowns scored
Kape’s also better defensively with 70% head strike defense vs Royval’s 54%.
Grappling isn’t likely to decide this one:
- Royval: 16% control rate, 10 sub attempts (3 wins)
- Kape: 30% control, 81% takedown defense
Model slightly favors Kape, but the edge is razor thin:
- 72% win probability vs -285 odds (implies 74%)
For our final main event of the year, we’ll definitely be finding a way to get involved.
The market is leaning toward Kape by knockout at +130, but if you trust Royval’s durability, there may be a better angle.
As Kape’s level of competition has increased, we’ve seen a shift — his recent finishes have come in the third round or on the scorecards. And while Royval’s been dropped, he’s never been properly knocked out in the UFC. Even in the chaotic war with Joshua Van, he went bang for bang.
Kape, on the other hand, is calculated. He’s not going to dive headfirst into a firefight, he’ll pick his spots.
That narrative has me looking at the fight total of 3.5 rounds, with the over sitting around -130. But for the final play of 2025, Manel Kape by decision at +215 might be the sharpest look on the board.
That’ll do it for UFC Vegas 112. The final card of the 2025 calendar.
The model finishes the year with a strong 63.5% accuracy and will take a well-earned break as the UFC heads into its annual hiatus. But don’t worry we’ll be back in full swing when the fight nights return.
Make sure to stay subscribed to the First Strike podcast as Dave Ross and I will bring some extra content through the fight break.
In the meantime, follow us on X for more fight insight at @TheRobbeo and @drosssports.
Thanks for reading all season long, see you in 2026.
Model Prediction | Win Prob.%
- Manel Kape | 71.96%
- Melquizael Costa | 59.28%
- Gillian Robertson | 70.84%
- Malsik Baghdasaryan | 59.42%
*in BOLD means the model says GO.
